India Economy Thread

[r3alist]

Like what? Coping with calling others' GDP fake for not having one of your own?

You are taking your own thread off topic, unable to grasp that you revised your own GDP projections because of data and methodology criticism.


Ask yourself why this is inviting ad hominem

 

[CallSignMaverick]

You are taking your own thread off topic, unable to grasp that you revised your own GDP projections because of data and methodology criticism.


Ask yourself why this is inviting ad hominem

Genius, base year revision happens every 10 years to incorporate newer surveys and better data. The downward revision was a result of newer inflation base, newer household consumption surveys (HCES) and so on. It was obvious after such a long gap the methodology/data had become obsolete.

We didn't rise our GDP out of nowhere by 18% or something.

Cope away paj, cope away

Self projection much, paj?

 

[r3alist]

It was obvious after such a long gap the methodology/data had become obsolete.

So there you go, credible papers had been written going back 5 years or more that the methodology and data was just not helpful to understand a reflective real-world picture.

And you just said overtime it became obsolete, and obviously so.

Which is what other skeptics were indicating

In fact your wording is harsher.

So what exactly are you upset about,

 

[r3alist]

Eh, don't like certain reality huh? What you mean every single post lol! This is the first time I did a comparison and you went defensive. The point is still valid, you spend too much time finding faults in silly things debating it as if you are commissioner in IMF. But cannot apply the same standards to your own country.

No one has validated Pakistan's GDP

It will be the same challenges on data validity and reasonable assumptions


You should just review everything that you have ultimately conceded and agreed with, your IMF data quality rating is a c by the way, so that's the IMF position and that's something else for you to try and deflect away.

 

[Vikramaditya1]

What is your problem man


There is talk of inflated bubbles every day, overvalued companies etc


And this is where your lack of understanding comes through, the problem is not inherently a multiple of X or y, the problem was that Indian price to earnings relative to the msci emerging economy benchmark was way way higher.

Oh dear, you have no clue do you? This is not a problem rather a praise. India has a higher P/E than many emerging markets. This is because investors priced in stronger expected earnings growth, stable institutions, and lower geopolitical risk than peers.

Such a common theme to ignore benchmarks, or understand them properly, so you probably did not even bother to understand how to look at developed market price to earnings.

Why should I praise myself when you are praising us inadvertently lmao.

You said every country uses the same way to calculate employment activity and unemployment rates...... That's on you my friend.

Usual comprehension issue still plaguing you. I said India uses same ILO standard just like US or UK. The methodologies is not even same for US and UK lest India. But they follow the same guidelines India follows.

The point is you thought India does annual extrapolation. Which is why your argument fell apart, keep trying to find a ground. Hopefully you can figure something out.

When actual data, Indian data, shows that national energy demand is more or less flat year on year.

Electricity consumption grew on average 5-6% every year now averaging 6% every year you can just do one Google search and find the consumption growth. Instead of wasting my time. The recent dip in growth to only 1% 2025, (slowest because monsoon came early) electricity generation in 2026 grew 10% yoy, India hit historical peak demand in 2026 April 21, 270GW. This doesn't look flat. Let's hear the next claim.

 

[r3alist]

Oh dear, you have no clue do you? This is not a problem rather a praise. India has a higher P/E than many emerging markets. This is because investors priced in stronger expected earnings growth, stable institutions, and lower geopolitical risk than peers.

Dude, you said yourself before the nifty 50 was overvalued.

Yes it looks great until it loses credibility, so when you were at 25x, compared to 15x average of emerging economies, what you allow yourself to be self-deluded flattery looks like over valuation to the rest of the world it's now closer to 20x.

Notice how you raised the point about developed economies price to earning as if you can compare 25x in India versus USA, because you understood it was a dumb thing to say

Usual comprehension issue still plaguing you. I said India uses same ILO standard just like US or UK. The methodologies is not even same for US and UK lest India. But they follow the same guidelines India follows.

You said everyone uses the exact same methodology


The actual point, just to take pity on you, is that developed economies have almost complete formal sector economic activity, which is recorded with more granularity and frequency

India does not have this.

So a 4% unemployment rate in India is really incomparable to a developed economy unemployment rate.
This therefore introduces significant scope for error in capturing economic activity.


Please don't get angry at me

The point is you thought India does annual extrapolation. Which is why your argument fell apart, keep trying to find a ground. Hopefully you can figure something out

You have not understood what prior data point is used to get to the annual extrapolation lol homework for you

Electricity consumption grew on average 5-6% every year now averaging 6% every year you can just do one Google search and find the consumption growth. Instead of wasting my time. The recent dip in growth to only 1% 2025, (slowest because monsoon came early) electricity generation in 2026 grew 10% yoy, India hit historical peak demand in 2026 April 21, 270GW. This doesn't look flat. Let's hear the next claim.

So the point was about electricity demand from your central grid, this only reported 1%

Electricity consumption can come from self generation solar etc

Difference here is central grid demand versus total consumption. Happy to help.

 

[Vikramaditya1]

@r3alist You shouldn't bring the consumption argument at all. Almost every other consumption is growing. Take Passenger Vehicles sales for example, the 2025 PV sales grew 5%, meanwhile in 2026, the sales grew staggering 25-28% YoY. In any case we will expect a 8% growth in 2026-27 in that segment.

Or you can look at the tax collection numbers which reflects the consumption growth. Remember this is during this whole Iran US war and other crisis.

 

[r3alist]

@r3alist You shouldn't bring the consumption argument at all. Almost every other consumption is growing. Take Passenger Vehicles sales for example, the 2025 PV sales grew 5%, meanwhile in 2026, the sales grew staggering 25-28% YoY. In any case we will expect a 8% growth in 2026-27 in that segment.

Or you can look at the tax collection numbers which reflects the consumption growth. Remember this is during this whole Iran US war and other crisis.

Sir, I am referring to central grid demand not consumption, I have not looked properly but I imagine you are correct in increased consumption, and I imagine certain industrial intensive units may have their own off-grid ways of doing things

 

[Vikramaditya1]

Dude, you said yourself before the nifty 50 was overvalued.

Yes it looks great until it loses credibility, so when you were at 25x, compared to 15x average of emerging economies, what you allow yourself to be self-deluded flattery looks like over valuation to the rest of the world it's now closer to 20x.

Notice how you raised the point about developed economies price to earning as if you can compare 25x in India versus USA, because you understood it was a dumb thing to say

India's premium relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index reflects what investors were willing to pay at the time. Whether that premium was excessive is a valuation debate, not evidence that India's economic data lacks credibility.
So which claim are you actually making?
India was expensive relative to emerging markets? Yeah, and ?
Therefore India's GDP or earnings data are false? (That conclusion doesn't follow.)

You said everyone uses the exact same methodology


The actual point, just to take pity on you, is that developed economies have almost complete formal sector economic activity, which is recorded with more granularity and frequency

India does not have this.

So a 4% unemployment rate in India is really incomparable to a developed economy unemployment rate.
This therefore introduces significant scope for error in capturing economic activity.


Please don't get angry at me

Back to the 9+9=18 argument. Read that again and understand what it meant if you can lol!

You have not understood what prior data point is used to get to the annual extrapolation lol homework for you

Still India is not using just annual data points. The reason we use them at all is explained earlier.

So the point was about electricity demand from your central grid, this only reported 1%

Electricity consumption can come from self generation solar etc

Difference here is central grid demand versus total consumption. Happy to help.

Your argument will hit hard if I was a Pakistani and probably how you get this idea.

You're confusing a measurement nuance with evidence. Yes, total consumption and grid demand aren't identical. That doesn't magically turn years of rising grid generation, record peak loads, and growing vehicle and fuel consumption into a stagnant economy. Where's your evidence that behind the meter generation is large enough to reverse the trend?

 

[r3alist]

India's premium relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index reflects what investors were willing to pay at the time. Whether that premium was excessive is a valuation debate, not evidence that India's economic data lacks credibility.

Well exactly

and by the way I did not say there is any one single smoking gun to say GDP is fake, which would be stupid to say that statement, which I never said anyway

But that there are a number of overheated metrics that when you start to take them as a collective does not stack against the narrative, and the true state of economic reality

Still India is not using just annual data points. The reason we use them at all is explained earlier.

No further comment

Your argument will hit hard if I was a Pakistani and probably how you get this idea.

Probably very true

Yes, total consumption and grid demand aren't identical

The assumption being made is that with a growing economy Central grid demand should reflect this, I expect that many industrial units have their own arrangements to fix and more reliable supply and less red tape.

Nonetheless, if there is increased consumption, increased economic activity but only one percent extra demand on the central grid, where and how would new and large industrial projects obtain the supply if they are not using central grid, open question because I am not sure.

 

[CallSignMaverick]

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