India - US Tariff and Relations | News + Updates

r3alist said:
You better hope so.

Do you really think this huge decision is at the whim of a few individuals?

Trump has obtained concessions from much more powerful and stronger economies than India, honestly not sure what cards you think you have to play here

If you start embracing Russia and china, that simplifies things for USA
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Actually the decision is at the whim of one single individual. If you have been following the insider baseball, several members of the Administration, including Trump had indicated the deal with India was imminent, until Trump decided he wanted a better one, based on the unexpected concessions that others made. The sticking points were that India wanted to protect certain markets and Trump wanted unrestricted tariff free access that all other developing Asian countries agreed to.

Failure to strike a deal will have more of a short-term impact on India, but India does have some cards, even if they are not aces like a monopoly on Rare Earths.

India is not a Vietnam in terms of dependence on US exports. Even if additional tariffs are imposed, the GDP hit would be a few tenths of a percentage point. That is a hit, but not catastrophic. India would still be the fastest growing large economy in the world. The Indian offer even with protection for agriculture still offers unprecedented access to the most populous country in the world for American companies. It looked like a very good offer until Vietnam, Indonesia and then all the others made offers the US negotiators had not expected. So, the US also has something to lose even in the short-term, even if it is more in terms of opportunity cost. I am not even considering the long term implications of losing India to Chinese influence because Trump is transactional and doesn't look beyond the next news cycle.
 
Terracotta Warrior said:
are you keeping your 85+ Mirage III/5 and 50+ F-7PG forever ? minus these platforms, PAF is just - 245 platforms including 40+ years old F-16 Blk15
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fleet age is a pretty useless metric.

a 40 year old F-16 is very different from a 20 year old Mig 29.

One has received continuous upgrades and modernisations, one is still stuck in the soviet times.

Theres nowhere near 85 or 50 of those birds, with significant further inductions planned.
 
sambody said:
Actually the decision is at the whim of one single individual. If you have been following the insider baseball, several members of the Administration, including Trump had indicated the deal with India was imminent, until Trump decided he wanted a better one, based on the unexpected concessions that others made. The sticking points were that India wanted to protect certain markets and Trump wanted unrestricted tariff free access that all other developing Asian countries agreed to.

Failure to strike a deal will have more of a short-term impact on India, but India does have some cards, even if they are not aces like a monopoly on Rare Earths.

India is not a Vietnam in terms of dependence on US exports. Even if additional tariffs are imposed, the GDP hit would be a few tenths of a percentage point. That is a hit, but not catastrophic. India would still be the fastest growing large economy in the world. The Indian offer even with protection for agriculture still offers unprecedented access to the most populous country in the world for American companies. It looked like a very good offer until Vietnam, Indonesia and then all the others made offers the US negotiators had not expected. So, the US also has something to lose even in the short-term, even if it is more in terms of opportunity cost. I am not even considering the long term implications of losing India to Chinese influence because Trump is transactional and doesn't look beyond the next news cycle.
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That's ridiculous

Trump would have to have an inhuman super intelligence to keep tabs with all details of all trading agreements

Do you really think he knows the details of Indian farmer and dairy economy?

We all know here "indicates" many many things, but there is obviously consensus in one faction of American decision-making which wants more from India, he got the message that the Indians were trying to be too cute

If India are actually considering allowing themselves to align to China all the Americans will do is sit back and wait, and continue to say nice things about Pakistan.

However once again you can try and be too cute, any subsequent actions you take to align to China will simply be open hostility, Americans will simply remind you that you are nowhere near in the position to bargain with them
 
Rationale said:
He got even the advisor job only because he went to prison for Trump. He is not actually involved in trade negotiations. Those are handled by adults like Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer.
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"handled by adults like Scott Bessent". Well this is what Scotty Boy has just come out with now....

US Treasury chief Bessent accuses India of profiteering on Russian oil purchases​


 
r3alist said:
That's ridiculous

Trump would have to have an inhuman super intelligence to keep tabs with all details of all trading agreements

Do you really think he knows the details of Indian farmer and dairy economy?

We all know here "indicates" many many things, but there is obviously consensus in one faction of American decision-making which wants more from India, he got the message that the Indians were trying to be too cute

If India are actually considering allowing themselves to align to China all the Americans will do is sit back and wait, and continue to say nice things about Pakistan.

However once again you can try and be too cute, any subsequent actions you take to align to China will simply be open hostility, Americans will simply remind you that you are nowhere near in the position to bargain with them
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Please proofread what you wrote again. Some of the paragraphs are just hanging in the air and seem to be missing sentences which, if present, might have presented a coherent idea.

In any case, based on what I could make out, Trump is obviously not going through all the line items himself, but that doesn't mean he has delegated decision -making. His advisers provide him the big picture. He is smart enough to figure out that India is not providing access that the others are, and opening up the world's most populous country to American farmers, who are a powerful interest group, is a story he knows he can sell as a big win - which India is not agreeing to give him. Making big deals for military hardware or American energy , which are also strong interest groups, is also politically desirable . That is something India may be able to provide. A country agreeing to invest in the US and hire American workers is another politically desirable story. In aspects of the deal with domestic political implications, Trump will take the call. In more boring sectors like industrial or medical equipment, he is more likely to defer to the opinion of his advisers.
 
Yasser76 said:
"handled by adults like Scott Bessent". Well this is what Scotty Boy has just come out with now....

US Treasury chief Bessent accuses India of profiteering on Russian oil purchases​


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Bessent is a very smart guy. He has smartly stated some of the facts and, even more smartly, left out some others. It is always enjoyable watching his interviews. I made a decent amount of $$$ in the market following his cues. I would highly recommend listening to the entirety of the interview to figure out his stated and unstated message.
 
arslank01 said:
fleet age is a pretty useless metric.

a 40 year old F-16 is very different from a 20 year old Mig 29.

One has received continuous upgrades and modernisations, one is still stuck in the soviet times.

Theres nowhere near 85 or 50 of those birds, with significant further inductions planned.
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so true.. a 40 year old F-16 with P&W engine will still have more service like (with 8000 Hr engine overhaul time) vs newer JF-17 with 3000 hr engine life,. numbers are really deceiving
 
sambody said:
Please proofread what you wrote again. Some of the paragraphs are just hanging in the air and seem to be missing sentences which, if present, might have presented a coherent idea.

In any case, based on what I could make out, Trump is obviously not going through all the line items himself, but that doesn't mean he has delegated decision -making. His advisers provide him the big picture. He is smart enough to figure out that India is not providing access that the others are, and opening up the world's most populous country to American farmers, who are a powerful interest group, is a story he knows he can sell as a big win - which India is not agreeing to give him. Making big deals for military hardware or American energy , which are also strong interest groups, is also politically desirable . That is something India may be able to provide. A country agreeing to invest in the US and hire American workers is another politically desirable story. In aspects of the deal with domestic political implications, Trump will take the call. In more boring sectors like industrial or medical equipment, he is more likely to defer to the opinion of his advisers.
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I suppose you can take comfort in whatever you want, one term of trump and American policies changed
 
India will probably shift to French engines for the Tejas and all future fighters and try to get ToT from them. France will have them paying through the nose for every step they share.
 
Before May 7th it wasn't considered "risky" at all........ :LOL:

the boys in washington sure were caught 'sleeping' on this eh.
 
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PK781 said:
Before May 7th it wasn't considered "risky" at all........ :LOL:

the boys in washington sure were caught 'sleeping' on this eh.
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It is US game to entrap India into US dependency like Japan.
 
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