India - US Tariff and Relations | News + Updates

[Raj-Hindustani]

Not good enough. Pick a side.

No, we don't need to pick any side

 

[Dalit]

No, we don't need to pick any side

Yes. You do. Trump has said to do so. Stop buying Russian oil.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Yes. You do. Trump has said to do so. Stop buying Russian oil.

Yaar - you apply for Pakistan, leave india. Thanks... We will decide what to do.

But only one point is sure - india will not ditch Russia for USA.

 

[Dalit]

Yaar - you apply for Pakistan, leave india. Thanks... We will decide what to do.

But only one point is sure - india will not ditch Russia for USA.

Are you going to help ally Russia after Trump has moved two nuclear submarines? You claim to be a Russian ally.

It is either QUAD or BRICS. It is either the West or Global South. You cannot fool anyone. There is no in between. Donald Trump demands full loyalty from India. You cannot get away with duplicity anymore. The policy of reaping benefits from all sides is over. Did you really think that India was going to fool Trump with current policy? The Americans provide preferential treatment to Hindustan because they expect full cooperation.

What did I used to tell you Indians? A time will come when the Americans are going to demand full support. That time has come buddy.

 

[PakFactor]

Are you going to help ally Russia after Trump has moved two nuclear submarines? You claim to be a Russian ally.

It is either QUAD or BRICS. It is either the West or Global South. You cannot fool anyone. There is no in between. Donald Trump demands full loyalty from India. You cannot get away with duplicity anymore. The policy of reaping benefits from all sides is over.

What did I used to tell you Indians? A time will come when the Americans are going to demand full support. That time has come buddy.

The Indians have the correct approach to foreign relations and balance both sides, which the Pakistanis could learn from. They were in a similar situation during the Cold War and managed both sides adequately.

There is a Chinese story about the warring period between Han and Wei. A third king wanted to get involved, but his advisor advised him not to. The advisor relayed a story of a hunter who wanted to kill two tigers and was told by an associate not to intervene, as the mountain could only have one dominant tiger to rule; thus, the two tigers fought, one was injured, and the other was dead. Hence, the hunter came and killed the injured one and took both. India has the strategic patience and will not expend energy needlessly in a conflict with China.

The Indian's, while they do stupid things, are very shrewd people when it comes to survival and business; I have over 300 clients on the risk management side 95% being Indian, and I can testify that a Pakistani couldn't hold a candle to them, they are shrewd business man and women, and they are heavily involved in grass roots politics and decision making centers in the West to shield themselves back home.

 

[SABRE]

I wonder if Trump would subject S-400 to US-India economic ties as well at some point.

 

[Baadil]

IIt is either QUAD or BRICS. It is either the West or Global South.

During Cold War, it was US Camp or Soviet Camp yet China emerged as its own power.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

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Shekar Gupta is having a meltdown.

Not long ago he said this

"From there, we have reached a place where America is a ‘natural strategic ally’. The alliance is growing into the Quad. India is also eyeing entry, at some point, into the elite Five Eyes grouping. The promise is of building a $5 trillion economy sooner than you imagine. The aspiration is to be a global power, economically, strategically and morally, the Vishwaguru." Shekar Gupta 2021

How times change

All oil is fantasy till someone drill and find it. Doesn't mean it doen't exist lol

 

[Nilgiri]

Interesting post:
Any reason why the strong India lobby amongst the Democrats and Republicans alike have not muttered a single squeak in protest against the so-called "anti-India" policies of the current administration?

The integrals of investment (security, commerce et al) in the 20th century (both the 100 year one and 50 year timeframe post ww2) are far larger regd North America, Europe, Japan for the US and "legislature lobbying" (and then the state of this w.r.t executive power expansion ever since 9/11 and 21st century).

So if 15% - 50% tarrifs are applied among tier A relationship context countries/long term allies for the US and low priority for political capital for the legislature (to take up the matter with the judicial branch regd the way the legislature used to lead and work with executive on it rather than vice versa lately) to expend.... "tier B, C relationship context" entities will just be scaled to this.

It likely would have been an issue (legislature approaching judiciary for remedy so it can legislate on it rather than have the country stuck to an "emergency" EO, which was an excessively broad reading by trump admin to use).... if the original april 3 rates were stuck with (along with any escalations on top).....and no TACO effect from the capital and bond market signalling and Bessent paring it all down.....given effects on inflation and supply chains at that point (lot of imports are not zero sum consumption, but input into supply chains)

Legislature and capital markets both more or less have baked this lower rate range as an additional statist tax on US consumer...and it has more predicatability compared to april 3rd "tax the penguins even and tax em high as possible" stuff.

That is my reading on it anyway. 2026 will show more data on inflation and supply chain effects and investment elasticities as the relative rates (between competing peers/sectors that intersect) will have been in effect for some time by then.

 

[Nilgiri]

pharma might be bigger. We have kept tight controls on pharma pricing that the US drug companies hate.

India should reform things here. Price controls cause artificial scarcity and there is valuable export market to US in pharma generics. Indian market cap and innovation could use more price signalling to climb the value ladder more anyway.

 

[Nilgiri]

There are some countries that have strong manufacturing sectors with big economy. These are countries that get the focus on Trump

Pakistan exports to US is mostly textile.

You will notice Trump is very zero sum approach on goods side of things (ignores service and finance mostly), hence the "manufacturing" grabbing his attention the most.

It comes from a few short talking points from MAGA rust belt campaigning early on and he doesnt let any other larger analysis on "newer economy" really change his thinking (he has segregated the "tech bros" into another part of MAGA stuff for this current tenure)....it is why he is pretty pro-union for those blue collar manufacturing jobs there too.

Internationally, for countries regd this (relative to each other and with US, with the new current account pricing setting from US market), it will largely boil down to existing capital stocks in various sectors, capital finance/inertia/innovation on those (growth trajectory) as to what the impact and adjustments will be.

Countries that have very little investment integrals (basically gross capital formation added up minus depreciation), as seen in say total markep cap, sector market cap, forex reserves etc... wont really benefit from any tariff % change in this 15 - 30% range with countries that have far larger integrals......as simply they squandered investment size required over the durations needed to bulk up capital.

@VCheng @Oscar

 

[Nilgiri]

The Indians have the correct approach to foreign relations and balance both sides, which the Pakistanis could learn from. They were in a similar situation during the Cold War and managed both sides adequately.

There is a Chinese story about the warring period between Han and Wei. A third king wanted to get involved, but his advisor advised him not to. The advisor relayed a story of a hunter who wanted to kill two tigers and was told by an associate not to intervene, as the mountain could only have one dominant tiger to rule; thus, the two tigers fought, one was injured, and the other was dead. Hence, the hunter came and killed the injured one and took both. India has the strategic patience and will not expend energy needlessly in a conflict with China.

The Indian's, while they do stupid things, are very shrewd people when it comes to survival and business; I have over 300 clients on the risk management side 95% being Indian, and I can testify that a Pakistani couldn't hold a candle to them, they are shrewd business man and women, and they are heavily involved in grass roots politics and decision making centers in the West to shield themselves back home.

Its real simple, India's market cap has to increase from 5 trillion USD to 10 trillion USD ASAP.

Capital is what drives GDP. It is the proverbial putting the donkey before the cart.

It can only be done by gross capital formation (investment), year after year, in the highest % possible.

 

[Faithfulguy]

During Cold War, it was US Camp or Soviet Camp yet China emerged as its own power.

During Cold War, China switched side at the end. Help caused downfall of USSR.

 

[Faithfulguy]

Yes. You do. Trump has said to do so. Stop buying Russian oil.

According to Palki, India is complying with. So it’s only China that will buy. China is sanctioning proof as they can stop shipments of magnets. That’s their card. Modi has no cards, just like Zelensky.

 

[Watandar]

Are you going to help ally Russia after Trump has moved two nuclear submarines? You claim to be a Russian ally.

It is either QUAD or BRICS. It is either the West or Global South. You cannot fool anyone. There is no in between. Donald Trump demands full loyalty from India. You cannot get away with duplicity anymore. The policy of reaping benefits from all sides is over. Did you really think that India was going to fool Trump with current policy? The Americans provide preferential treatment to Hindustan because they expect full cooperation.

What did I used to tell you Indians? A time will come when the Americans are going to demand full support. That time has come buddy.

Actually no. India is big enough and important enough to resist being bullied into this or that camp. Before BJP, India's non aligned policy and getting benefit from all quarters was the one thing many Pakistani policymakers admired.

Trump is throwing tantrums because Canada, China and India are pushing back against his trade based bullying. TACO.