India vs China at $4 Trillion – The Brutal Infrastructure Reality
- Thread starter retaxis
- Start date
With growing economy everything comes... it takes time but it will be there....
nahtanbob
Elite Member
the money and physical infrastructure can come. but will the culture change
NeptunesVortex
Registered Member
NeptunesVortex
Registered Member
Sam6536
Registered Member
There is nothing to deny here.
India lost the game when it prioritised services over it's manufacturing sector when it liberalised.
The problem is multifold.
1. India liberalised way too late, it was only when the IMF forced us to do it.
2. We prioritised services sector which only benefited a select educated section of our population rather than larger skill driven manufacturing sector. India's majoritarian economy is still agrarian based. The surplus of which moves to urban centre to do odd jobs in construction etc.
3. The administration (bureaucracy) is another hurdle for us. While the government has made improvements to ease of doing business they came too late and aren't enough. Compound corruption on top of that.
4. India's infra is still picking up. I think we would be around China's 2010 level of development by 2030. Both nations didn't have the same starting line nor the same set of facts and circumstances so it's a given.
What India should focus on is Ease of doing business, infrastructure, supply chain and improving manufacturing share of the gdp + skilling up of labourers right now.
CallSignMaverick
Registered Member
4 trillion then and 4 trillion now aren't the same thing. Inflation is a thing.
CallSignMaverick
Registered Member
In terms of urban infra, yes indeed. I'll say worse than even that.
Not the case with urban planning and infrastructure that is decaying even with rise in disposable income of households.
hydrabadi_arab
Trusted Member
But India have not reached $4t GDP yet.
In reality is $3.6t for 2025-26. $4t is like 3 years away the way their currency is tanking. Make this thread in 2030.
In reality is $3.6t for 2025-26. $4t is like 3 years away the way their currency is tanking. Make this thread in 2030.
Sam6536
Registered Member
We don't have planned cities. We just expand cities and don't expand the infrastructure with it. Almost everything crumbles due to that.
Sanitation/sewers and the local municipal corporation are due some major revamp.
niubi
Registered Member
Indeed $4T today can only be compared to maybe around $2T 15 years ago. So that would put China at around year 2005 but then you'd need to readjust the inflation. Let's say approx year 2000.
Which means India when it reaches over $4T GDP should in this GDP linear scaling theory be comparable to year 2000 China. Overall that probably lines up fairly well BUT I think China back then was still a lot more orderly and clean than India is overall. But this conjecture doesn't have much to do with cleanliness or order because North Korea is currently much more orderly than India but North Korea's GDP is nothing.
The inflation issue is already pointed out so instead of comparing with 2010 China, it's more accurate to compare with 2000 China. But India's real GDP when you consider Rupee's value or rather lack of value and dropping value with China's pegging to USD at a rate and therefore also undervaluing RMB, the real differences is even greater. Again, commensurate with general observations and comparisons.
Which means India when it reaches over $4T GDP should in this GDP linear scaling theory be comparable to year 2000 China. Overall that probably lines up fairly well BUT I think China back then was still a lot more orderly and clean than India is overall. But this conjecture doesn't have much to do with cleanliness or order because North Korea is currently much more orderly than India but North Korea's GDP is nothing.
The inflation issue is already pointed out so instead of comparing with 2010 China, it's more accurate to compare with 2000 China. But India's real GDP when you consider Rupee's value or rather lack of value and dropping value with China's pegging to USD at a rate and therefore also undervaluing RMB, the real differences is even greater. Again, commensurate with general observations and comparisons.
niubi
Registered Member
Again someone already mentioned India made a false step by going for services rather than manufacturing and technology from step 0 preparation and planning. Even then, it was really low tier services rather than what the west kept for itself or at least protect well. Financial services are more a parasite than truly a useful tool for a country, particularly a developing country. Financial services only for a hegemon that already controls and owns everything by force and then by laws they write themselves. It does nothing for developing countries.
This is the key to why China sees it more important to continue pegging to USD and undervaluing RMB because it has still a lot more progress left in the tank and the balance is still slightly in the favour of keeping Yuan undervalued instead of going towards a consumer based economy. Western economists typically disagree because they only see their path which btw has already destroyed many European economies with the UK being the latest.
This is the key to why China sees it more important to continue pegging to USD and undervaluing RMB because it has still a lot more progress left in the tank and the balance is still slightly in the favour of keeping Yuan undervalued instead of going towards a consumer based economy. Western economists typically disagree because they only see their path which btw has already destroyed many European economies with the UK being the latest.
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