The insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are now openly visible to every Pakistani, with clear indications of who is supporting and funding them. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has significantly escalated its tactics and weaponry, a level of advancement that would not be possible without substantial external backing. The mask has now fallen: Indian ministers, military officers, and even generals are openly discussing Balochistan and expressing support for insurgent movements without any pretense.
I have consistently maintained that while there were once legitimate grievances in these regions, today the landscape has shifted dramatically. The insurgencies have been hijacked by foreign interests, particularly Indian intelligence, and now primarily serve the goal of destabilizing Pakistan. Even organizations like BYC, which present a softer, more political image, ultimately feed into the same broader agenda. While some of their demands may be genuine, the larger movement has drifted away from rightful grievances and is now overwhelmingly driven by external manipulation.
In this context, the military’s increasingly tough and sometimes ruthless response in Balochistan is understandable. This is no longer simply a matter of addressing internal discontent; it is a battle against an organized effort to fracture Pakistan along ethnic lines. The strategy is clear: Baloch are pitted against Punjabis, Pashtuns against Punjabis, Sindhis against Punjabis, all while the military is branded as a "Punjabi army" to erode national unity. This divisive rhetoric is now openly promoted across Indian political, military, and media platforms.
What is deeply frustrating is watching Pakistan fall into the trap, fighting itself while the real beneficiaries watch and celebrate. Provinces like Sindh, where major dam projects were often opposed, will likely face the harshest consequences if India succeeds in completing upstream water infrastructure. Sindh could suffer devastating water shortages, and by then, the damage will be irreversible.
Looking at the larger picture, the threat is only set to intensify. As India's economy continues to rise and integrate with the global system, its geopolitical influence will grow. Many international actors, driven by economic self-interest, will prefer to turn a blind eye to India’s proxy war tactics against Pakistan. This will embolden India further, leading to an escalation in hybrid warfare and proxy conflicts within Pakistan.
Frankly, I do not see a viable path to a peaceful resolution between Pakistan and India under the current and emerging circumstances. The hostility is deeply rooted, the ambitions are too large, and the geopolitical alignments are shifting against Pakistan. If these trends continue unchecked, a direct military confrontation, possibly even involving nuclear weapons, may not occur immediately, but it feels almost inevitable in the future. Indian is just going to increase it's proxy efforts.
