Iran Foreign Policy and Doctrine

[Persian Gulf]

Okay, then as I said above, your leadership wasted the last chance to detonate right after Soleimani was killed.

we didn't have 60% HEU then

and in any event my point was not that IRI makes good decision, but that there is only a political obstacle not a technical issue

 

[ShapurII]

we didn't have 60% HEU then

Because the regime never wanted and still doesn't want to pass the nuclear threshold. We had 13 tons of 3.5% enriched uranium as well as over a hundred kilograms of 20% enriched uranium in 2013. Soleimani was killed in 2020. In 7 years, we could've produced over 500 kg of 90%-HEU with just our 3.5% stockpile. In fact, it would've taken Iran about 18 months to produce 500 kg 90% HEU from that stockpile.

The thing is that you have to be prepared for everything. Opportunities or threats. And we are never prepared. Whenever shit happens, it takes us days only to realize what has happened, before we decide how to respond to it. And we usually don't know how to respond to it at all.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The thing is that you have to be prepared for everything. Opportunities or threats. And we are never prepared. Whenever shit happens, it takes us days only to realize what has happened, before we decide how to respond to it. And we usually don't know how to respond to it at all.

I 100% agree with this and have mentioned it many times in the past few years

(you are losing me slightly with the "regime" references but you are entitled to your view)

 

[ShapurII]

I 100% agree with this and have mentioned it many times in the past few years

(you are losing me slightly with the "regime" references but you are entitled to your view)

We are dealing with a group of people who fight with their own youths and kill them over Hijab while bend over for other countries.
I'm not even talking about the US now. Consider the Taliban or the Republic of Azerbaijan. The regime has failed to establish our red lines against these states who are some of the weakest countries in our neighborhood. Let alone regional powers in our neighborhood or global powers like the US.

That's why I continue to use the term "the regime", or even better the Ayatollah regime. It's hard to consider the current leadership of Iran as part of the people when all their might is for internal oppression, but they are meek as a lamb when it comes to external threats. Sad to say this, specially after years of supporting the regime against unfair criticisms, but the regime of Iran hardly represents Iranians, and rarely pursues our national interests anymore. This is getting clearer day by day. From failed policies like investing 20-30 billions of US dollars in defending Syria instead of arming the IRIAF, to immigration policies that have allowed over 6 million Afghan nationals enter our borders illegally.

 

[Persian Gulf]

We are dealing with a group of people who fight with their own youths and kill them over Hijab while bend over for other countries.
I'm not even talking about the US now. Consider the Taliban or the Republic of Azerbaijan. The regime has failed to establish our red lines against these states who are some of the weakest countries in our neighborhood. Let alone regional powers in our neighborhood or global powers like the US.

That's why I continue to use the term "the regime", or even better the Ayatollah regime. It's hard to consider the current leadership of Iran as part of the people when all their might is for internal oppression, but they are meek as a lamb when it comes to external threats. Sad to say this, specially after years of supporting the regime against unfair criticisms, but the regime of Iran hardly represents Iranians, and rarely pursues our national interests anymore. This is getting clearer day by day. From failed policies like investing 20-30 billions of US dollars in defending Syria instead of arming the IRIAF, to immigration policies that have allowed over 6 million Afghan nationals enter our borders illegally.

most of what you say has at least some basis in fact but I think overall you are exaggerating a little bit

without internal security there is no security at all, but no doubt the internal policies are stupid and counterproductive in many ways ...

 

[ShapurII]

most of what you say has at least some basis in fact but I think overall you are exaggerating a little bit

without internal security there is no security at all, but no doubt the internal policies are stupid and counterproductive in many ways ...

Our internal security has been negatively affected too. Look at what happened in Urumiyeh. Look at what happened in Tabriz. Look at the administration of Pezeshkian and how he is weakening the unity of the country by targeting our shared national values like the Persian language. Look at what Afghans are doing in Iran. They live in Iran but hate Iran. It's not like Afghans have never revolted against us before. Mahmoud the Afghan slaughtered Iranians for 3 years. Sistan has dried up because the Taliban has stopped the flow of water from the Hirmand River.

The situation has never been this bad in Iran in a long time since World War II. Not even after the 1979 revolution and the chaos that followed.

It feels like Iran belongs to everyone but the Iranians. It belongs to the Afghans, the Iraqis, the Turks, the Arabs of the Axis of Resistance, the Russians, the Chinese, basically anyone but the ordinary people of Iran.

 

[Hack-Hook]

We had paid dearly when you sold ZTE to US, which destroyed the confidence of Chinese firms to invest in Iran. BTW, quite a number of your Revolution Guards elites see Chinese investment in infrastructure as a threat to their benefit, which blocks further investment.

it's several time I hear people from china claim we sold ZTE to USA, really i wonder how its portrayed there while actually it was a ZTE employee and its own packaging documents that exposed the company

FBI Targets Chinese Firm Over Iran Deal

JULY 12--The FBI has opened a criminal investigation targeting a leading Chinese telecommunications firm that allegedly conspired to illegally ship hardware and software purchased from U.S. tech firm

www.thesmokinggun.com

ZTE-Iran Deal

ZTE-Iran Deal

www.thesmokinggun.com

and Reuters report on the matter was based on zte packaging document not any Iranian whistleblower

https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-iran-telecoms-idUSBRE82L0B820120322/

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[shapurzolaktaf]

I never know China or Russia has so much influence on Iran as you said. For Khomeini, US was the grand Satan, USSR was the junior Satan, and we Chinese were commie kuffars, neither could be trusted, and apparently his will has been inherited.

IRI has been the most independent regime in the world so far, and its cooperation with Russia and China is all out of national interest. I see no country can push IRI to obey, even the US sanctioning IRI for 40+ years.

Mentioning Qatar, so you must know it was Russia that tore Azerbaijan from Iran like what China suffered in the same era, but it doesn’t matter you cooperate with Russia now. We don’t owe Iran historically, and in fact Sino-Persia relation had been friendly since ancient times, the last prince Pirooz of Sassanid Persia was sheltered in China.

If there are our agents in your leaderships, then our investment would be far more than now, but the reality is we are blocked to some extent. Conspiracy doesn’t lead to success.

China is a historical friend and protector of Asian civilization. We always follow the interests of Iran and as an Asian friend we need close relations with China. We know that there has been a lot of western initiated propaganda against China.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

We are dealing with a group of people who fight with their own youths and kill them over Hijab while bend over for other countries.
I'm not even talking about the US now. Consider the Taliban or the Republic of Azerbaijan. The regime has failed to establish our red lines against these states who are some of the weakest countries in our neighborhood. Let alone regional powers in our neighborhood or global powers like the US.

That's why I continue to use the term "the regime", or even better the Ayatollah regime. It's hard to consider the current leadership of Iran as part of the people when all their might is for internal oppression, but they are meek as a lamb when it comes to external threats. Sad to say this, specially after years of supporting the regime against unfair criticisms, but the regime of Iran hardly represents Iranians, and rarely pursues our national interests anymore. This is getting clearer day by day. From failed policies like investing 20-30 billions of US dollars in defending Syria instead of arming the IRIAF, to immigration policies that have allowed over 6 million Afghan nationals enter our borders illegally.

Syria was not a failed policy, 30 billion spread over so many years is relatively normal if you consider it defensive costs. Either control it or leave it destroyed behind to keep them weak until they change their attitude. It's a terrorist regime and the seats of anti-shia and anti-Iranian umayads was always there. So no regret at all for Iran decisions, but we should have known better, the Russians and Assad were not reliable enough, the local military was corrupt.

 

[ShapurII]

Syria was not a failed policy, 30 billion spread over so many years is relatively normal if you consider it defensive costs. Either control it or leave it destroyed behind to keep them weak until they change their attitude. It's a terrorist regime and the seats of anti-shia and anti-Iranian umayads was always there. So no regret at all for Iran decisions, but we should have known better, the Russians and Assad were not reliable enough, the local military was corrupt.

Imagine we had spent 30 billion dollars on the IRIAF. We would've had 350-450 Sukhoi-35s / Sukhoi-30s. Which one is more useful? Spending 30 billion dollars over a Russian puppet that escapes his homeland in 11 days when Putin orders him to do so, or having an Air Force with 400 airframes capable of defending your skies?

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Imagine we had spent 30 billion dollars on the IRIAF. We would've had 350-450 Sukhoi-35s / Sukhoi-30s. Which one is more useful? Spending 30 billion dollars over a Russian puppet that escapes his homeland in 11 days when Putin orders him to do so, or having an Air Force with 400 airframes capable of defending your skies?

That's investment and each investment has risks. The billions of dollars which are talking about were lost by failed distaster policies like fuel and energy subsidies, which leaks at least billions a year to neighbouding countries, through smuggling. It would not surprise me if we have lost at least 100 to 200 billions USD on fuel smuggling.

 

[ShapurII]

That's investment and each investment has risks. The billions of dollars which are talking about were lost by failed distaster policies like fuel and energy subsidies, which leaks at least billions a year to neighbouding countries, through smuggling. It would not surprise me if we have lost at least 100 to 200 billions USD on fuel smuggling.

Why should you choose a risky investment over a low-risk investment that has worked like a charm before? I'm talking about the IRIAF. The IRIAF proved its efficacy in 8 years of a bloody war with Iraq, where Iraq used chemical weapons against our soldiers. A sane person doesn't choose a risky investment with dubious/unknown returns over a low-risk investment with proven returns.

That's another failure as well. But I think the issue of fuel smuggling in Iran is of a different nature. Fuel smuggling is about corruption in the system, while our failure in Syria was about failure in strategic planning. Who do you think is benefitting from fuel smuggling in Iran? Surely, it's not a few rogue Baluch citizens that are smuggling millions of dollars per day through underground pipes. There's a whole system with power in the system behind it.

 

[925boy]

Your population is at least 6-7 times larger than real Saudi population whom I mean is Sunni with Saudi nationality and gets money from Saudi Monarchy. And none would like to work hard if you can earn money by just selling oil, aka the Dutch disease. Developing economy is far more complex than imagination.

But Iran's economy is already much more diverse than the Saudi economy- Iran relies on oil for 40% of its GDP or income in hard currency/ $? so Saudis are the only ones who have "Dutch disease" per your description, so this point you made here is not accurate about Iran. because of sanctions, Iran adjusted and diversified its economy, to reduce the impact of sanctions- an example. Iran is heavy in Petrochemicals now, and less in oil barrels.

Russia has never been trusted China, even today Putin is playing China card with Trump asking for a good price.

Both countries show a high level of trust today actually, but historically yes, there have been tensions, and getting to this point in their relationship has taken a long time and tons of investments and risks.

As I said, current Iranian regime has never been so willing to cooperate with China in geopolitics, and we don't expect much for a new one.

What has Iranian regime done recently that showed it wasn't willing to cooperate with China? Iran has integrated into OBOR/ New Silk trade route. Iran is fully invested in the multi-polar world order and trade and integration with the Eastern countries of the world, and this of course includes China, in a big and relevant way too.

 

[925boy]

Then just detonate right after Soleimani got killed since there was no excuse to hide and tolerate. Once the mushroom raises there will be peace and reputation.

How is it smart for Iran to "just detonate" its 1st nuclear bomb after Soleimani's death when Iran already knows that China and Russia do not want Iran to attain nuclear weapon status? And remember that in the background of a potential nuclear test explosion is Iran's over reliance on China and Russia for economic survival and access- combine these 2 dynamics and you can easily start to see why Iran didnt choose Soleimani's death as its justification for testing a nuclear weapon.