Falcon29
Elite Member
I think it's more about closure of Red Sea by Houthi's. They're not impacted by SOH closure like UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait are. Now it's more personal for them and they gotta make sure that route is open.
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
Falcon29
Elite Member
They are likely almost all in Israel and it's also likely not true, even if there's some truth to it. It may be excuse to convince US domestic public of ground operation down the line /in the future
Possibility Trump administration and waiting for after mid term results. If Americans vote Democrat then this war will come closer to an end. If republicans retain majorities then they may decide to escalate
Possibility Trump administration and waiting for after mid term results. If Americans vote Democrat then this war will come closer to an end. If republicans retain majorities then they may decide to escalate
Last edited:
Watandar
Trusted Member
Trump Encounters a More Determined Iran as War Widens
Over the weekend, President Trump rejected a return to full-scale war. But as he tries to find a way out of a conflict he started, Iran has proved a stubborn enemy.
On Tuesday evening, Iran fired multiple missiles on American bases in Jordan. The U.S. military intercepted the missiles with apparent ease, but the incident has drawn Mr. Trump once again back into fighting.
The United States struck back in a “powerful response” against Iran on Wednesday evening, U.S. Central Command said on social media. “We’re going to be hitting them very hard, because it’s our turn to hit them,” Mr. Trump told reporters earlier in the day.
The Iranian and U.S. moves come as the war has widened quickly, with Saudi Arabia joining U.S. forces in striking Iranian proxies in Iraq, an American tanker in Egypt set ablaze from an apparent drone strike and tensions rising between Ukraine and Iran.
The war, which Mr. Trump has been trying to bring to a diplomatic conclusion since April, is now threatening to grow bigger at the very moment the United States wants to move past it.
“When Trump started the war, he thought he could control it,” said Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The Iranian response is to extend the battlefield much, much wider, so the United States has to defend a broader battlefield.”
Experts said that at this stage in the war, which the United States launched with Israel five months ago, Iran wants to demonstrate the military adage that the enemy always gets a vote.
“Iran wanted to demonstrate that they are not going to sit back and wait for the U.S. or Israel to strike at a time of their preference,” said Jason Campbell of the Middle East Institute. “They are trying to seize the initiative, or at the very least keep the U.S. and Israel on their back foot.”
U.S. military commanders prepared a plan for Mr. Trump that would have started another days-long bombing campaign. U.S. forces had moved air assets to Israel in preparation for those attacks, and those planes remain in place should Mr. Trump change his mind in the face of the Iranian action.
In the deliberations over that plan, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command, according to two people briefed on the discussions.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of Central Command, said that if Mr. Trump did not resume major combat operations, the United States should stop the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, the two officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
The U.S. strikes in the strait are aimed at reopening the international waterway, which the conflict effectively closed. As a result, oil prices have increased overall since the start of the war.
A spokesman for Admiral Cooper declined to comment, citing the confidential discussions.
On Wednesday, U.S. Central Command said it struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps targets in Iran, “including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites and maritime capabilities.”
Image
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman in July. For Mr. Trump, the single most important goal will be to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Credit...Reuters
In a Fox interview on Tuesday, Mr. Trump seemed to weigh the misery and humanitarian costs that resuming major operations, including more strikes against Iran’s infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, would inflict on Iran’s civilian population.
“And who am I hurting there?” he said. “I’m hurting the people. So I’m not looking to do that.”
But between Mr. Trump’s doubts and his vow to hit Iran hard, the U.S. strategy is not at all clear.
Mr. Trump had recently seemed intent on bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. Some of the countries that have been mediating talks, including Pakistan and Qatar, are trying to do the preparatory work to restart such discussions.
Experts, however, are deeply skeptical about what kind of deal Mr. Trump can make.
Officials in the Trump administration now rarely discuss the list of priorities they had at the beginning of the war, which included eliminating Iran’s nuclear program but also eroding Tehran’s missile capability and curbing its proxy forces.
“The justification for the war has fluctuated considerably over the last few months,” Mr. Campbell said. “It has been months since you have heard Trump or any other senior official mention anything other than the nuclear program.”
For Mr. Trump, the single most important goal is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and to do it in a way that does not look like a loss for the United States.
But unless traffic can begin to flow through the waterway, without being cut off by an Iranian attack on a tanker or insurance companies’ doubts about safety, oil prices will rise, not recede.
“As long as issues such as who controls the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, let alone concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions and other initial drivers of the war, the cycle of hostilities and temporary pauses will continue,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In an odd way, the Trump administration’s current struggles with Iran are at least partly the result of the U.S. success at the start of the war.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader for nearly 37 years, was killed in the opening strike by an Israeli attack based on American intelligence. He was quickly succeeded by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a far more hard-line leader who does not share his father’s caution. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed the son is more open to pursuing a nuclear weapon than his father, who had long renounced their use.
Image
A poster of Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader in Tehran in July. Credit...Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times
What is more, the leaders of the old regime — most of whom were also killed in the war — often choreographed retaliatory strikes in a way meant to save face at home while not escalating hostilities against the U.S.
“That was the old Khamenei,” Mr. Nasr said.
Iran’s new leaders, he added, want to inflict as much damage on the United States and its allies as it can to deter a future war against their country.
Nicholas Hopton, a former British ambassador to Iran, Qatar and Yemen, called the five-month conflict “a misadventure” that is not winnable by military means alone.
“The president of the United States still doesn’t seem to have made up his mind whether he wants a negotiated solution to this or to try for some kind of military conclusion, which all observers who know the situation in Iran and have worked in the Gulf would say is highly unlikely to work,” Mr. Hopton, who is now a distinguished fellow with the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, said in a webinar on Wednesday.
Falcon29
Elite Member
Those strikes yesterday weren't a major operation. So whatever major operation was put on the table wasn't approved by Trump yet. Likely Arab allies are against a major escalation while Netanyahu trying to push Trump towards taking an escalatory step.
Brad Cooper and Vance seem to persuading Trump against that
Brad Cooper and Vance seem to persuading Trump against that
Falcon29
Elite Member
US under Trump appears very indecisive and unsure what they want to do
Not escalating nor de-escalating
For nations in region, American logistics companies and other global logistics companies and American consumers it feels like deliberate sabatoge as US military has large capabilities that it can deploy but is choosing not to for time being
Not escalating nor de-escalating
For nations in region, American logistics companies and other global logistics companies and American consumers it feels like deliberate sabatoge as US military has large capabilities that it can deploy but is choosing not to for time being
Sam6536
Registered Member
If there is one thing that America is good at it is feeding it's war machine. America's Arms industry is a major part of their economy, if you're betting on their demand overcoming the supply i'd say you're guessing wrong. Similar news floats around every couple of months or so, it's a part of their whole schtick.
Neocapitalists love nothing more than another war where more weapons can be sold.
030292
Registered Member
America has lost the war and trump being a sore looser is having difficulties coming to terms with this reality.
lightning f57
Trusted Member
SA GDP dropped by 4.8% in the second quarter, that is despite the red sea route being open in that time.
Now with this next front open they may be affected similar to the other GCC states.
lightning f57
Trusted Member
Bro right now its just blur not much of a confirmation.
Falcon29
Elite Member
Agreed. There are so many weapons here and huge contracts awarded to these military industry there's no way they have shortages of stuff but it's plausible they don't build as many Thaad interceptors as people think as there may not be as big demand before but now they just awarded a massive contract worth hundreds of billions. It's crazy they dump money to make Israel more secure instead of letting a missile hit a building in Tel Aviv and letting Israel take on the costs to repair their own damage from wars they started.
Instead the administration takes hundreds of billions away from US taxpayer budget that could be helping Americans get healthcare and gives it to Israel. This whole contract is for Israel so Israel annual budget this year coming from the USA is close to $1 trillion dollars.
And the scumbag Netenyahu has audacity to put on facade of claiming he wants Israel to move away from US military aid and bring it to zero. It's gone up tremendously
Falcon29
Elite Member
The wars not over yet to draw conclusions. But they are certainly not going to get their demands. If they had struck nuclear program and concluded with 12 day war and left everything back to normal, you could say they set back nuclear program and achieved objective. Restarting the war was the dumbest decision and likely not gonna succeed but can't say with 100% certainty yet ...
Watandar
Trusted Member
US military is not some god-like omnipotent force. It can deploy its capabilities but there is a huge cost to it. Trump has proven another dumb American President who drank too much of the "American world superpower hyperpower new Rome" kool aid.
'Exasperated' Trump 'yelling expletives' at officials as leakers reveal turmoil in West Wing
President Donald Trump is “exasperated” by the ongoing war in Iran — and taking it out on his staff, according to an ally of the president who spoke with NBC News,
“I don’t think he believed it was going to be this difficult to get the Iranians to agree to a deal,” the ally told NBC News. “There was not a real strategy for how long or what they should do to get to the endpoint.”
“He did not intend this to be a long, drawn-out war,” the person said.
Trump, according to NBC, is “angry about his military options and frustrated that he can’t close a deal with Iran." The president's flailing foreign strategy is especially evident as the war, which he originally described as a “short-term excursion” drags “into its sixth month." Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth estimates the war has so far cost $37.5 billion. A Telegraph analysis puts the "true bill" at $151.3 billion.
“Trump erupted during a meeting last week with some of his top national security officials, yelling expletives, according to the U.S. official and another person familiar with the discussion,” NBC News reports.
“After all this time, there is no unity,” one U.S. official familiar with the discussions told NBC.
Another U.S. official, described as having “knowledge of the discussions around the war,” told reporters the military lacks “clear guidance” from the president — even as the military prepares to resume major combat operations in Iran.
“We have had a series of tactical victories, but are facing a strategic defeat without clear policy guidance or a decision about where this is going,” the official told NBC News.
According to the report, Trump “is expected to be presented this week with expanded military options that include targeting Iranian-backed proxies in the region, according to the U.S. official. There’s also a Cabinet meeting set for Camp David on Friday.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavit called reports of the president’s outburst at national security officials “false.”
“The president has a great team whom he trusts, and everyone on the team knows he’s the final decision-maker,” she told NBC News.
030292
Registered Member
I think most of the money allocated to manufacturing gets embezzled between seniors officers and contractors, because they know there is no audit in pentagon, so they can spend $1.5 trillion as they see fit, like buying lobsters for $100 billion and all that shit
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