Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

It didn’t materialize because the energy war never happened.

Iran didn’t truly close SoH, about 4-7MBPD leaked thru. Add in the 2MBPD from UAE pipeline + 4MBPD from Saudi east-west pipeline = 10-13MBpd of the 20MBPD pre war was still flowing to global markets.

Iran didn’t have the guts to attack UAE or Saudi pipelines. In fact the worst attack on energy was actually carried out by Houthi’s 4 months into the conflict.

So 150+ could materialize if conflict goes to November OR if iran had guts to strike Arab energy facilities the first month of war or attacked SoH ships like Ukraine is doing to Russia.

That's my point. Iran never dared to go all suicidal and hit the targets it had to hit.

The fact that the Emirates oil production surpassed its war time production barely 2 months after the ceasefire is a clear indication of that.

This is while Iran lost almost its entire capacity of petrochemical exports and had its aluminum and steel production facilities hit severely by Israel.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The problem is that China has significantly reduced its oil imports, making current releases of the strategic petroleum reserve enough for other major oil importers.

Yep, our leaders are too passive and want to play as the hero to salvage the world economy.

Because the current world economy is in very bad shape compared to the pre-2008 era, and cannot sustain another blow like the 2008 economic crisis.

However, I personally believe this attempt will be futile as a much bigger economic crisis is poised to happen, and this incoming tsunami will make the 2008 one looks like a small splash of water in comparison.

 

[mangekyo]

Lol just pay the South Asians some good money and they will develop you the bomb in a decade or less.

They are not going to survive a decade of sanctions and American hostility. Maybe not even a year.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Yep, our leaders are too passive and want to play as the hero to salvage the world economy.

The downside of larping like your planning 1000 years ahead is that usually your enemy doesn't wait that long.

 

[KAL-EL]

Thats just pure fantasy. They have no industrial base, no capable scientists. Even worse, the entire country is monitored by the US who they pay protection money to. They would get sanctioned to oblivion and destroyed before they could even think about a nuke.

Agreed to disagree on that one. Behind the scenes I have little doubt that they would develop them. Might take them a while but they're not just going to sit there while their neighbor goes nuclear.

I don't believe the US would sanction them them. Just the opposite. They might just go good cop bad cop might just help them by behind the scenes

Another member also mentioned that Pakistan might help them. That I'm not sure of

As I already said, you ran going nuclear is not going to happen in a vacuum. Things will change, maybe not now, but in the near future.

We shall see what happens won't we?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The downside of larping like your planning 1000 years ahead is that usually your enemy doesn't wait that long.

Most Chinese don't like the Chinese government to act like a gentleman.

When against a rogue nation, you need to reciprocally play like a thug as the countermeasure.

 

[ShapurII]

If that was the case, I'm sure they would get help from "someone" or someone's.

And do what? It's not like the technology is hard to acquire. Any US billionaire can set up his own facilities to build nukes. The technology is pretty old and with enough money, you can absolutely acquire it. The question is, what will be the US response to that? Will it allow Saudi Arabia to have enrichment halls and import sensitive dual-use technologies to build and maintain a nuclear weapons program?

If the US is OK with Saudi Arabia going nuclear, then yes, the Saudis will be able to do that in a short time. Unfortunately, all evidence is there that Trump is OK with the Saudis acquiring nuclear weapons. So, if Israel does not intervene and does not stop that from happening, Saudi Arabia will be a nuclear state pretty soon. They also have Chinese help to create a strategic missile force to deliver those nuclear warheads.

Iran going full nuclear isn't in a vacuum. Some other countries might not have a choice but to try to go nuclear. Let's be realistic here

Some other countries will not lift a finger if they think the US will treat them the same way it has treated Iran. So, again, it's pretty much up to the US and Israel to let Saudi Arabia go nuclear or not.

 

[KAL-EL]

And do what? It's not like the technology is hard to acquire. Any US billionaire can set up his own facilities to build nukes. The technology is pretty old and with enough money, you can absolutely acquire it. The question is, what will be the US response to that? Will it allow Saudi Arabia to have enrichment halls and import sensitive dual-use technologies to build and maintain a nuclear weapons program?

If the US is OK with Saudi Arabia going nuclear, then yes, the Saudis will be able to do that in a short time.


Some other countries will not lift a finger if they think the US will treat them the same way it has treated Iran. So, again, it's pretty much up to the US and Israel to let Saudi Arabia go nuclear or not.

As for Israel and your comment about that, as strange as it seems, they wmight want Saudi Arabia to go nuclear because inadvertently helps them.

 

[Shags101]

And do what? It's not like the technology is hard to acquire. Any US billionaire can set up his own facilities to build nukes. The technology is pretty old and with enough money, you can absolutely acquire it. The question is, what will be the US response to that? Will it allow Saudi Arabia to have enrichment halls and import sensitive dual-use technologies to build and maintain a nuclear weapons program?

If the US is OK with Saudi Arabia going nuclear, then yes, the Saudis will be able to do that in a short time.


Some other countries will not lift a finger if they think the US will treat them the same way it has treated Iran. So, again, it's pretty much up to the US and Israel to let Saudi Arabia go nuclear or not.

Damn if musk wanted to develop a device that could take out the world I’m fairly sure he has enough people who could come up with something

 

[Lulldapull]

Mind you, I'm not an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, but at the very least Saudi Arabia would probably go nuclear.

You actually think that once Iran goes full nuclear that Saudi Arabia who is basically next door will do nothing?

What? ask for Pakistan to give them nukes?

Fat chance of that happening, unless the Jews authorize it no?

How else?? Chinese toady doing it?

If nukes get proliferated anywhere in da ME, then its by US/ Jew consent!

 

[ShapurII]

As for Israel and your comment about that, as strange as it seems, they wmight want Saudi Arabia to go nuclear because inadvertently helps them.

It's a matter of trust. Israelis are paranoid and I doubt they would ever allow such a thing to happen. Unless it is absolutely under their control and Saudi Arabia is barely a launchpad for their future nuclear Armageddon, which is a possibility that countries like Iran and Turkey should carefully consider.

Damn if musk wanted to develop a device that could take out the world I’m fairly sure he has enough people who could come up with something

Not even Musk, but any billionaire with enough money to spare. The only thing stopping people from doing that is state intelligence, strict control over acquiring fissile material even in form of natural uranium and prohibitive laws. Besides that, the technology itself is not that complicated.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

And do what? It's not like the technology is hard to acquire. Any US billionaire can set up his own facilities to build nukes. The technology is pretty old and with enough money, you can absolutely acquire it. The question is, what will be the US response to that? Will it allow Saudi Arabia to have enrichment halls and import sensitive dual-use technologies to build and maintain a nuclear weapons program?

If the US is OK with Saudi Arabia going nuclear, then yes, the Saudis will be able to do that in a short time. Unfortunately, all evidence is there that Trump is OK with the Saudis acquiring nuclear weapons. So, if Israel does not intervene and does not stop that from happening, Saudi Arabia will be a nuclear state pretty soon. They also have Chinese help to create a strategic missile force to deliver those nuclear warheads.


Some other countries will not lift a finger if they think the US will treat them the same way it has treated Iran. So, again, it's pretty much up to the US and Israel to let Saudi Arabia go nuclear or not.

A lot of people in China believe that Iran should have go full nuclear since Trump 1.0 as the US unilaterally breached the contract.

Because Trump 1.0 would be less likely to attack Iran than Trump 2.0, since Trump 1.0 was 100% fixated to punish China.

Whereas Trump 2.0 got pinned down by a stronger China with the rare earth supply chain, and the attack on Venezuela and Iran was a desperate gambling to block China's oil supply as the bargaining chip to counter China's rare earth restriction.

From Trump 1.0 to Biden era, it was Iran's perfect opportunity to go nuclear.

 

[ShapurII]

From Trump 1.0 to Biden era, it was Iran's perfect opportunity to go nuclear.

Iran's biggest blunder since 2003, where MEK exposed our nuclear enrichment program, was that Iran missed the opportunity that Biden provided us for going nuclear. Instead, the idiotic Ayatollahs chose to mock Biden on TV and made fun of him and did nothing but continued with their "strategic patience". Dude was God's gift to us exactly at the time we needed it.

had Trump won the presidential election in 2020, all of this shit would've started 4 years ago.

 

[Immortals]

That's my point. Iran never dared to go all suicidal and hit the targets it had to hit.

That was because iran wasn’t fighting an existential war. It was trying to fight a war for a quick resolution just like the 12 day war when they took the first off ramp offered to them.

Meanwhile delusional clowns on here claimed Israel “begged” for a ceasefire during the 12 day war.

There is so SO many grifters and losers in the Iranian political system and military that Israel could whack a mole these guys for next 3 years and Iran wouldn’t run out of appeasers.

 

[Immortals]

Iran's biggest blunder since 2003, where MEK exposed our nuclear enrichment program,

Everyone knew Iran had a nuclear program prior to 2003, it was the worst kept secret in the world. I remember visiting Iran then and my grandpa telling me about the military having facilities in the mountains. This was 25 years ago.

The Iranian nuclear program was built to quickly build a bomb if Saddam went nuclear. Which was predicted to happen by 1998.

Then when Iran saw how quickly Saddam was dismantled in 2003, they got scared to continue to program and shuttered it. Remember in 2003 the only thing Iran had was Shahab-1,2,3 and nothing else. Fateh-110 wouldn’t be built for another 4 years. Iran’s military by all means was weak and inactive against America. Its airforce was still somewhat of a threat since the F-14 was still lethal. But that’s about it.

was that Iran missed the opportunity that Biden provided us for going nuclear.

Yes thank Haji joon and his General of Yes men for that..