Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[retaxis]

Brent crude rises to $94

Its only going to keep going up for two reasons.
1. fighting resumed a few weeks ago and it takes around 45 days for the last oil tanker that was allowed free passage to touch down and supply oil. after that its all just some oil leak here and there which is no where enough.
2. China has a lot of oil tankers off its coastline and not willing to go deep into strategic reserves at all incase a war breaks out and you need the oil and gas for fighting. Therefore China will likely play the market as well and buy a lot of oil pushing up the prices.

So i don't think the price is going down anytime soon.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Iran’s steel Silk Road breaks the maritime siege​

Iran’s steel Silk Road breaks the maritime siege

Maritime pressure is forcing Iran’s economic geography inland, where railways are becoming instruments of sovereignty.

thecradle.co

 

[Musings]

Bro - try to post a translation or a description in English so other members can understand it.....

 

[Flotilla]

If US doesn´t attack, Islamic Republic will;

1º.- Enrich HEU grade uranium comfortably.
2º.- Receive in 2027 the Su35 that ultimately will protect nuclear program.


Both of them will change equation. That is probably the reason why Netanyahu and Trump are not boasting about neutralizing the nuclear program.

So good overall.

 

[ustaad]

Can non-Iranians participate?

 

[Immortals]

Even Israeli officials recognize Erdogan is good for only empty speeches!

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[Jalz]

View attachment 211342



Yeah the same China that cut oil imports by 50% for the first time in 5 years once the war broke out in order to help stabilize oil markets, with full knowledge that it would undermine Iran’s leverage.

I have no idea why there is so much China glazing on this site. Xi is a western appeaser and shuns confrontation. He’s meeting Donald next month.

China doesn’t care if Iran’s population starves to death or if Iran collapses. China will have relations with whoever comes next in Iran. They have far more trade and economic ties with the rich Arab PG countries.

Assads Syria had to import most of its things. At least we dont have to import the basics. That already shields us for the most part.

 

[Magi]

Qalibaf fails every step of the way and continues on undeterred. How do these incompetent and shallow minded people reach these high positions in IR?

The only positive sign re. Qalibaf is that he is constantly rationalizing and explaining his actions. This indicates he is facing some kind of push back from people that count.

 

[Immortals]

Assads Syria had to import most of its things. At least we dont have to import the basics. That already shields us for the most part.

You have to import gasoline and diesels because your refineries don’t make enough to meet daily demand. So no, you are not “shielded” for long.

Accepting this blockade is idiotic and will backfire horribly on this incompetent leadership.

 

[retaxis]

How feasible is this scenario?

Iran threatens to shut down suez canal. Suez canal is very very narrow (300m wide) and only one or two ships can pass at any time. If Iran strikes a few ships it would block the entire canal.

This would have a huge effect on international markets for sure.

 

[Immortals]

Qalibaf fails every step of the way and continues on undeterred. How do these incompetent and shallow minded people reach these high positions in IR?

Iran is much like Corporate America. I would meet with executives and think to myself “how is this idiot an executive at such a large company”.

In reality my friend you will realize that people in powerful spots whether government, social, corporate are usually not there because they are smarter than you or have a harder work ethic. They are usually their because of luck, connections, and questionable morality compass.

The same holds true for officials in the IR of Iran. Many are not their for their intellect or foresight, instead they are their from connections, corruption, and nepotism.

The only positive sign re. Qalibaf is that he is constantly rationalizing and explaining his actions. This indicates he is facing some kind of push back from people that count.

He’s an idiot. He was a terrible mayor of Tehran and a corrupt individual who made lucrative business deals for his friends and didn’t modernize the city or help its people.

In fact, he’s not too different than Trump in some aspects.

 

[Magi]

Assads Syria had to import most of its things. At least we dont have to import the basics. That already shields us for the most part.

I feel this picture is based on the pre war situation. Many core upstream industries have been destroyed. Take steel and metals refining for example. The Isfahan steel plant was bombed among others.

Steel is the backbone of most traditional industries. No steel, no oil and gas. All piping and other equipment is made of various grades of steel and must be replaced as they wear out, if not already bombed. Then you get fuel and chemicals shortages. That cripples logistics. How many truck and taxi drivers will be out of work due to gasoline shortages? Machinists, welders, pipe fitters, mechanics, refinery and other manufacturing operators, painters, etc. etc. Will they demonstrate and cause riots? How many industries will be backlogged due to trucking and logistics, on top of raw materials shortages?

This is just one example. In these recent wars they destroyed much of what previously enabled Iran to withstand economics sanctions. Plus we now have a physical naval blockade on top of banking and bureaucratic sanctions that existed before the war.

 

[Immortals]

How feasible is this scenario?

Iran threatens to shut down suez canal. Suez canal is very very narrow (300m wide) and only one or two ships can pass at any time. If Iran strikes a few ships it would block the entire canal.

This would have a huge effect on international markets for sure.

Not feasible. Iran doesn’t have accurate enough weapons to hit the Suez enough to shut down for long. It can’t even shut down the Persian gulf despite having a 800KM+ coastline with it.

Plus why would you want to anger Egypt and piss off one of the few Arab countries that are not involved in this war.

The best way to hurt the world is to launch a significant Ukraine like attack on Fujairah where about 2M barrels per day of oil bypass the Strait. Then having the Houthi’s go after Yanbu in the Red Sea where another 2-4MBPD pass.

That would remove 4-5MBPD of oil from markets and would def shock the world.