Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[Mehdipersian]

How much of south Lebanon is occupied by IDF, are they near Litani???

I cant find reliable information, please if anyone can describe actual map...

Israel has not been able to occupy any part of Lebanon

 

[SiliconBit (silicon0000)]

How much of south Lebanon is occupied by IDF, are they near Litani???

I cant find reliable information, please if anyone can describe actual map...

Mostly Israel is restricted with-in 5km from border in lebanon and that too not permenant occupation.

 

[vmro]

Exactly. It's foolish to think that Israel will give up on her gains and sign a peace. They are completely dominant now. Why would they give concessions? They aren't retarded.

People who think Israel will sign a peace treaty and withdraw from Gaza or South Lebanon are astronomically more stupid than people who think Ukraine can liberate her lost territory.

They are not improving their performance, they have a lot of problems, and even with all possible equipment and resources, they are scared to go against Hezbollah as soldiers and are repeatedly kicked out of any Lebanon gains....

North Israel is non-functional for life, that is disaster for any state...Many young people are leaving Israel for normal life under normal circumstances...and they can't count on being paid for their adventures endlessly...

In America Israeli lobby and Jewish lobby are not synonymous anymore, many see it as obstacle to normal relationships with Muslims in general...

They are deeply internally divided, and process is progressing...

They are frustrated by toughness of Hezbollah that should be minor issue for omnipotent army...

Far from ideal for them...but unfortunately, I think that Gaza will suffer from all of their furiously issues....

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israel has not been able to occupy any part of Lebanon

not exactly true. they control a large part of the border regions within 2-3km radius from the border and have penetrated deeper than that (without capturing a major town or establishing control)

 

[Persian Gulf]

Next steps of escalation:

Operation True Promise III:

Iran needs to show huge level of power and expose Israel's weakness in Operation TP 3 to deter Trump from any dreams of war with Iran

Arrow systems are built by IAI, the IAI base/factories are a huge soft target that Iran can easily pulverise (I posted satellite imagery and coordinates in databank thread) along with Mossad and IDF HQs in/near Tel Aviv.

forget about massive air bases. this is the ideal target for TP 3 in response to Israeli strikes against Iran's missile facilities and air defences. seriously damaging IAI facilities also harms Israel's ability to replenish Arrow interceptors.

4th round of escalation:

then the next level is their energy and water infrastructure if Israel responds by attacking Iran's oil facilities.

Israel is very reliant on a small number of large power plants and desalination plants, which tend to be paired together in the same locations (even next to each other).

Israel moved most of its petrochemical factories to the Negev (away from Haifa for fear of Hezbollah rockets), this is another large soft target for Iran that is also away from Tel Aviv and less well defended, and will create massive fires if hit (even by drones/cruise missiles).

5th round of escalation:

then Dimona and the surrounding facilities if they hit Iran's nuclear facilities. some of these are built deep underground, which will be difficult for Iran to hit, but plenty aboveground as well.

final round of escalation (all out war):

and then direct attacks on cities (Tel Aviv / Tehran) causing mass damage and casualties is the final level of escalation.

 

[Developereo]

An attack on Iran's nuclear sites is all but guaranteed with Trump in power. It may be delayed until early next year but it now seems certain.

 

[tsunset]

An attack on Iran's nuclear sites is all but guaranteed with Trump in power. It may be delayed until early next year but it now seems certain.

I hope the third one is the right one

 

[925boy]

I think Soon TP3 will be bargained for Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon & Gaza.

because currently, US and Israel dont have sufficient quantities of air defense interceptors to handle TP3's barrages.

I need to see some drones flying in TP3- drones are still underrated in their military effectiveness in modern warfare- they relatively cheap, pose little risk to whoever fired them, can hit locations precisely, dont threaten life, makes enemy AD systems take vacation (absent when needed to intercept them).

If Iran floods Israel with 500 Arash-2s hitting vital sites, i bet you Israel and useless Jordan will only intercept 20% of them. Dont ask Ukraine what its interception rate of Gerani- 2s is, just read objective information online and find out the damage they have done to Ukraine.

 

[SiliconBit (silicon0000)]

because currently, US and Israel dont have sufficient quantities of air defense interceptors to handle TP3's barrages.

I need to see some drones flying in TP3- drones are still underrated in their military effectiveness in modern warfare- they relatively cheap, pose little risk to whoever fired them, can hit locations precisely, dont threaten life, makes enemy AD systems take vacation (absent when needed to intercept them).

If Iran floods Israel with 500 Arash-2s hitting vital sites, i bet you Israel and useless Jordan will only intercept 20% of them. Dont ask Ukraine what its interception rate of Gerani- 2s is, just read objective information online and find out the damage they have done to Ukraine.

Firstly, This is what looks like it's going to happen, not what I want.

Secondly, You are ignoring US and their allies factor, TP3 could lead to full scale war and then Iran won't be in any good position.

 

[StrategicBear]

When will TP3 start?

 

[925boy]

Better to be bargained for Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon & Gaza to pre-Oct 7, 2023 position and opening of humanitarian aid throughout Gaza and Lebanon.

Based on leaks and comments from Israel, Israel is already planning to withdraw from Lebanon soon- IDF and its equipment have been beaten up too much too quickly in Lebanon, because they didnt learn their lessons from 1982 or 2006 that invading Lebanon is a Dead On Arrival -DOA situation for the IDF. Attrition of IDF ground forces in Lebanon is obviously worse and more unsustainable than in Gaza, just saying.

If Israel was going to actually attempt to dismantle Hezbollah, it should have tried to do so between 2006 and before Hezbollah got fully involved in the Syrian civil war (and expanded its size, scope. capabilities). It can't dismantle Hezbollah of today, its just too dug in and prepared and skilled- most national militaries dont perform up to its level.

 

[925boy]

If Trump resolves the Ukraine-Russia conflict then they will be able to exclusively focus on Iran and Palestine.

not until US and NATO spend at least 1-3 years licking their wounds (and treating and training their SFs, mercenaries etc) and re-equipping their forces after Russia seriously degraded them in Ukraine. Unless NATO wants suicide to come quicker, it cannot engage in any other large conflict while it tries to save Neo-Nazi Ukraine.

Best to kick off now but ensure supply lines with China, Russia and Pakistan are set up.

ok

 

[Nuffle]

ᴏʙsᴇʀᴠᴀᴛᴏʀɪᴏ ɢᴇᴏᴘᴏʟɪᴛɪᴄᴏ²⁴ʰ

🇮🇷⚡️🇮🇱 Algumas fontes anunciaram que grandes movimentações militares estão em andamento no Irã. Algumas fontes relataram o voo de caças iranianos sobre os céus do país. 🛰 Imagens de satélite relatam intensas movimentações militares no oeste do país. @ObservatorioGeopolitico

t.me

Some sources have announced that major military movements are underway in Iran.

Some sources have reported the flight of Iranian fighter jets over the country's skies.

🛰 Satellite images report intense military movements in the west of the country.

 

[925boy]

Firstly, This is what looks like it's going to happen, not what I want.

Secondly, You are ignoring US and their allies factor, TP3 could lead to full scale war and then Iran won't be in any good position.

all those US allies are broke, unequipped and unmotivated- they only move if US moves, and they know US is getting tired- it just is and its not "succeeding" anywhere militarily, except maybe against minor terrorist groups here and there.

Germany, France, UK barely supported US in confronting the Houthis and soon ran back to Europe- there is no or weak signs they would engage in a serious fight with Iran without at least Iran attacking them first.