Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds


This is one area in the war against its nuclear program, where Iran actually won. It has enough material for 5-10 weapons. What's left is for it to slowly build up its nuclear program in synergy with its development of conventional capabilities.
 
We need a proper mobile air defense system and a capable air force. At the same time, it's crucial to maintain the secrecy of our nuclear program and strengthen our counterintelligence capabilities. It's becoming increasingly clear that the old guard within the military and the IRGC must be replaced.

Another key solution is to shift focus away from repressing the population with laws such as mandatory hijab regulations. Instead, efforts should be directed toward building a strong, stable economy (work towards lifting the sanctions). When people are content and living good lives, they are far less concerned about who governs the country. One of the strongest forces that unites the Iranian people is their deep sense of pride and nationalism. This powerfull tool should be used by the regime.
Mobile air defense systems are not going to make any difference in the big picture.
US satellites will give Israel real-time intelligence. And Israeli jet fighters will still be able to hunt them down from long distance (over 600 km) over Iraqi air space.

The only thing that can change the equation is a capable air force that can intercept Israeli jet fighters over Iraq. Without a capable air force, you can have as many as portable air defense systems that you want, it will be taken out by Israel before they even get close to the firing range of our AD.

I have a simple inequality for you:
range of ALMBs/ALCMs > range of the best AD in the world.

And I completely, 100%, agree with your second paragraph. I hope the regime would take note of the ultimate importance of internal security and people's satisfaction with the regime. They really owe Iranians so much.
 
Stop dragging Pakistan into the conflict ffs.
  • If Pakistan aligns militarily with Iran, we risk becoming internationally isolated.
  • From that point on, we’ll be walking around with a target on our back — strategically, economically, and politically.
  • We’d be joining a bloc that has never shown us loyalty or reliability in the past.
  • Iran openly supports sectarian Shia militias that kill Sunnis, all while claiming to fight oppression.
  • These same groups have stirred unrest in Balochistan, threatening our own internal stability.
  • Even if their war with Israel was right, backing forces like Iran is a direct threat to our national security.
  • Taking Iran’s side could lead to crippling sanctions, damage our economy, and destroy Pakistan’s image globally.

As a Pakistani citizen, you should care about the lives and future of Pakistanis — not Iranians.
That future is connected obviously and all mentioned points are either past or minor issues.
I will just comment first point, international isolation in todays world means nothing, especially in case of Pakistan where you have China diplomatic cover, so you can choose for close cooperation with Iran to solve your never ending energy troubles, cross border terrorism or tremble of what will west say about it. Choice is rather simple, even from narrow nationalistic perspective, securing and having friendly your left flank will make your job much easier with main enemy.
If you are afraid what will arabs say and afraid of the current peanut money you receive from gulf, just swallow and digest it as they them self are worming up relations with Iran for their own interests, Pakistan should do the same, this is one in the century opportunity to reshape your strategic, military and economic position, i would take it with both hands.
Of course, Iran has a word to say about all mentioned and if they show readiness to go in that direction, I see no reason why Pakistan would not except working in opposite direction of its own national interests and wellbeing.
 
Iran needs to build an anti-satellite capability. It was a huge disadvantage in the war for the US to see everything happening in Iran via satellites/reconnaissance drones and feed all the data to Israeli targeting.
 
what does that mean ?

It means you should resist primal chemical and biological urges.

Pakistan is committed to fully apply cyber crime laws with absolute impunity. So be careful what you preach.
 
Iran needs to build an anti-satellite capability. It was a huge disadvantage in the war for the US to see everything happening in Iran via satellites/reconnaissance drones and feed all the data to Israeli targeting.
Even if Iran does possess such technology, we will never dare to use it against the US.

I'm sure you can see a clear pattern in Iran's behavior: Iran always refrains from war with the US, for very good, reasonable reasons. It shows that our military commanders are not stupid.
 
If we use unclassified CENTCOM data then Iran had 3000 ballistic missiles in 2020 up from 1000 missiles in 2010 indicating annual production rate of 200 missiles per year.

At this rate of production Iran had to produce another 1000 missiles between 2020 and 2025 bringing the total size of the arsenal to 4000 missiles.

Of these 4000 missiles, 150 have been launched during Operation True Promise 1 and True Promise 2 and another 550 missiles during the recent war.

So Iranian missile arsenal at this moment might be around 3300 missiles left of which probably 1300 missiles are short range and 2000 missiles are long range and can reach Israel.

Of these 550 missiles fired most were old liquid fuel missiles produced between 2003 and 2010 with the age between 22-15 years.

Unclassified reports claim after October 2024 Iran produced 50 ballistic missiles per month of 600 missiles per year.

Short range missiles should be phased out and Iran should bring the total arsenal of its long range ballistic missiles (Khaybarshekan) to 12.000 missiles by 2035 in case if Iran has to fight a coalition of US+Israel+Saudi Arabia+UAE+UK+France+Turkey.

To achieve that, Iran must produce 10.000 missiles in the next 10 years or 1000 missiles per year or 83 missiles per month.

1000 Khaybarshekan missiles per year at an average cost of 1mln per unit means Iran must spend 1bln$ per year on ballistic missiles.

Your calculation also have to account for possibilities of missile bases & launchers lost in Israeli attacks. If Iran agreed to ceasefire, that means a strong possibility that Iran is also running low on missiles just like Israel could be running low on interceptors.

Also, I believe 2000 medium or long range missile is exaggerated number. These are extremely big and heavy ballistic missiles. The storage space needed for this much amount needs to be extremely large. Its logistical nightmare to securely store such huge numbers.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top