While I acknowledge that Iran has made some critical missteps during the war, I firmly believe that, in accordance with their protocols, they would have already ceased enrichment activities and moved as much of their centrifuges and uranium out of the facility as possible once the war started. Thats a week time worth before the Fodrow facility was attacked.
More importantly, emerging reports suggest that the nuclear program has only been set back by a few months at most. This indicates that the Fordow facility was not obliterated as claimed and that Iran still has the capacity to recover from this blow.
Depends on where progress has been.
There are two bottlenecks for Nuclear Weapon development. Enrichment and Miniturisation
The first bottleneck is for a country to enrich over 60% ENU, you need 85+ to make nuclear weapon, but the key stage is 60, because that is the magic number to separate between U235 and U238. If you had achieve that, then from 60-85 would be a lot easier because you already get past that stage.
The second bottleneck comes with minturisation of warhead, because you can't put a giant fission seperator on a missile, that only have a limited space, unless you are putting it like WW2 style airdroppable bomb, which limited your range, you need to make the entire things from the cake to the trigger mechanism smaller that you can fit into a missile.
THe first stage will take you decades unless someone teraches you how to do it, Soviet Union takes 4 years to enrich to that level because of the scientist deflection to Soviet Union after WW2. As oppose to North Korea, which had taken almost 30 years.
The second stage can take you a few years to a decade or so, that is something even North Korea can't even do for now.
So depends on what status is the Iranian nuclear program, a few month set back can be large if they are in pre-60% enrichment, or it could be a small gap to fill if they had already go past 60%.
