Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
RescueRanger
Meme Lord
ShapurII
Trusted Member
It's not as easy and simple as you think
kobra
Registered Member
Markets will be closed on Sat and sunday, so he can bomb easily! Meanwhile contn to print $$ during weekdays.
Cash gk
Elite Member
24 days they were continuously under bumbing.. It is enough to realize the country you are living in is not safe for your children. It is enough to understand and to make a decision to go back to Eastern Europe and live peacefully.
Immortals
Elite Member
We are approaching 10 hours of no missile launches toward Israel. Only 3 waves have occurred since midnight time in Israel. Last week Iran was firing 10-15 waves a day at the peak.
I assume some operational regrouping is happening.
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
It's simply another deception.
Don't stop the war !!!!!!
Mutakalim
Registered Member
Lets analyze the developments of this conflict and the prospects of any meaningful deal between coalition and Iran. Following are the most probable objectives of US - Israel coalition and their completion status, however the mismatch between objectives of both actors is evident:
1. Regime change in Iran leading to complete destruction of Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime change included elimination of Iranian top political and military leadership including supreme leader.
Current Status: Supreme leader and most of political and military leadership killed. However, collapse of Islamic republic has not happened and unlikely to happen without full scale ground invasion. Political, administrative and military control of IRI is intact and functional.
2. Complete destruction of Iranian nuclear program along with all ancillary industrial complex and retrieval of enriched uranium.
Current Status: Partially achieved however retrieval of enriched uranium has not happened and unlikely to happen. I will be surprised if coalition is able to forcefully retrieve uranium as the stockpile is most likely dispersed and there are significant military and logistical hurdles in any forceful attempt of retrieval. Further, the destruction of ancillary industrial infrastructure of nuclear program is likely achieved.
Having said all of this, the strategic impact of achieving this objective is debatable if Iranians had no intention of building nuclear weapons in the first place. Further, it is highly unlikely that know how and technical expertise of nuclear weapons development are eroded to such a level that any Iranian sprint to achieve it become technically impossible.
3. Complete destruction of Iranian ballistic missile and long range drone program along with the destruction of industrial capacity.
Current Status: Launch capacity is intact and will remain intact until the ground invasion of mainland. Frequency of launch is degraded due to Arial dominance, however launch capacity has not been degraded to the extent to make it strategically, operationally and tactically irrelevant. This launch capacity of ballistic missiles and drones is the main trump card in the hands of Iranians having great impact on all other dimensions of the conflict.
4. Destruction of Iranian war machine and associated industrial capacity to wage war and to defend territorial integrity of Iran.
Current Status: Iranian conventional military capability has been severely degraded along with the industrial capacity. Air defense and Air force has been destroyed and made irrelevant, large naval assets have been taken out and military headquarters to the divisional levels are most likely destroyed.
However, most importantly the armed forces have not been degraded to a level that they are unable to ensure Iranian territorial integrity. Proof of this lies in the fact that no serious attempt has been made up till now to instigate a civil war in the insurgency prone provinces. There is no imminent danger of civil war in Kurd and Baloch areas of Iran.
5. Destruction of Iranian capacity to threaten strait of Hormuz and shipping in Persian gulf.
Current Status: Not achieved and unlikely to be achieved without the capture of coastal areas. Capture or destruction of Kharg Island is irrelevant as far as this objective is concerned. The threat to shipping in Persian gulf will not be eliminated without the capture of majority of Iranian coastline.
Iranian capacity to choke strait of Hormuz and to interdict maritime traffic in the Gulf is the biggest trump card for Iran and biggest hurdle in the way of any practical deal.
Coalition's inability to reopen strait will be considered as strategic defeat and as a result Iran will emerge as a dominant and decisive player in the Gulf.
In view of above analysis of coalition's objectives and their current status it is highly unlikely that hostilities will end without significant changes to the equation in favor of coalition.
Trump may try to end hostilities with this off ramp of halting strikes on power plants but Israel will try its level best to derail any possibility of deal. The biggest losers in case the conflict ends at this stage are gulf states followed by Israel, and the biggest winner is Iran.
1. Regime change in Iran leading to complete destruction of Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime change included elimination of Iranian top political and military leadership including supreme leader.
Current Status: Supreme leader and most of political and military leadership killed. However, collapse of Islamic republic has not happened and unlikely to happen without full scale ground invasion. Political, administrative and military control of IRI is intact and functional.
2. Complete destruction of Iranian nuclear program along with all ancillary industrial complex and retrieval of enriched uranium.
Current Status: Partially achieved however retrieval of enriched uranium has not happened and unlikely to happen. I will be surprised if coalition is able to forcefully retrieve uranium as the stockpile is most likely dispersed and there are significant military and logistical hurdles in any forceful attempt of retrieval. Further, the destruction of ancillary industrial infrastructure of nuclear program is likely achieved.
Having said all of this, the strategic impact of achieving this objective is debatable if Iranians had no intention of building nuclear weapons in the first place. Further, it is highly unlikely that know how and technical expertise of nuclear weapons development are eroded to such a level that any Iranian sprint to achieve it become technically impossible.
3. Complete destruction of Iranian ballistic missile and long range drone program along with the destruction of industrial capacity.
Current Status: Launch capacity is intact and will remain intact until the ground invasion of mainland. Frequency of launch is degraded due to Arial dominance, however launch capacity has not been degraded to the extent to make it strategically, operationally and tactically irrelevant. This launch capacity of ballistic missiles and drones is the main trump card in the hands of Iranians having great impact on all other dimensions of the conflict.
4. Destruction of Iranian war machine and associated industrial capacity to wage war and to defend territorial integrity of Iran.
Current Status: Iranian conventional military capability has been severely degraded along with the industrial capacity. Air defense and Air force has been destroyed and made irrelevant, large naval assets have been taken out and military headquarters to the divisional levels are most likely destroyed.
However, most importantly the armed forces have not been degraded to a level that they are unable to ensure Iranian territorial integrity. Proof of this lies in the fact that no serious attempt has been made up till now to instigate a civil war in the insurgency prone provinces. There is no imminent danger of civil war in Kurd and Baloch areas of Iran.
5. Destruction of Iranian capacity to threaten strait of Hormuz and shipping in Persian gulf.
Current Status: Not achieved and unlikely to be achieved without the capture of coastal areas. Capture or destruction of Kharg Island is irrelevant as far as this objective is concerned. The threat to shipping in Persian gulf will not be eliminated without the capture of majority of Iranian coastline.
Iranian capacity to choke strait of Hormuz and to interdict maritime traffic in the Gulf is the biggest trump card for Iran and biggest hurdle in the way of any practical deal.
Coalition's inability to reopen strait will be considered as strategic defeat and as a result Iran will emerge as a dominant and decisive player in the Gulf.
In view of above analysis of coalition's objectives and their current status it is highly unlikely that hostilities will end without significant changes to the equation in favor of coalition.
Trump may try to end hostilities with this off ramp of halting strikes on power plants but Israel will try its level best to derail any possibility of deal. The biggest losers in case the conflict ends at this stage are gulf states followed by Israel, and the biggest winner is Iran.
