I was talking to somebody who understands oil pretty well on a professional level. He told me that Iran can store up to 150 million barrels of oil in different ways.
Iran produces nearly 4 million barrels of oil per day, of which about 2.2 million barrels used to be consumed domestically. We export about 1.8 million barrels per day, which has probably increased since February 29th because we're no longer exporting petrochemical products in large scale.
So, if we assume that Iran has 2 million barrels of excess oil to export, and about 20%-25% of this gets exported anyway, either by passing through the blockade as many tankers have or via ground routes, Iran's storage capacity will be full after at most 100 days, of which only 20 days have passed. Also, that's plenty of time to adjust oil production safely with minimal loss.
That aside, the nature of Iran's oil is different from the US shale oil as it requires less artificial pressure to be extracted. So, even if Iran has to shut down some oil wells after some time, the damage will be much less extreme than the US shale oil. As I understood, Iran's conventional oil has high permeability and strong natural pressure which make it much easier to shut down an oil well without a meaningful recovery time.
So, this whole blockade can go for at least 3 months before it causes any sort of real damage to our oil industry. The question is, does the US have 3 months before oil prices jump to $150 bbl? I think the war has to resume by late-May or early-June, if not earlier.