Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[UberShock]

What are you predictions for the coming war?
will Iran withstand initial surprise attack from israel/us ?
How well prepared senior military leadership of iran in this time? Will they be assassinated in their apartments like previous attack? (Bageri, Salami, Hajizadeh)
If Iran survive in the initial surprise attack you can impose your game

 

[Shakehands]

 

[hasssanali8998]

translation

 

[Watandar]

translation
View attachment 170212

Is this some new development ? No.

 

[tsunset]

 

[Arash]

LOL
Nobody trusts that kind of "news"

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

Before the red line was Iran cannot have nuclear program. Since this incompetent leadership did nothing.

Now the redline is Iran cannot have a missile program either!

The ‘Saddam-ifcation” of Iran continues

 

[Shakehands]

Exactly this is what they said last time and then we all saw what happened!

 

[Shakehands]

Let see what irani media tell us about this development.

 

[hussain0216]

Trump threatens further attacks on Iranian missile and nuclear infrastructure in meeting with Netanyahu

Trump-Netanyahu meeting at Mar-a-Lago: When asked if he would support an Israeli attack on Iran if it continues its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, Trump said "missiles - yes, the nuclear - fast. One will be yes, absolutely, the other was, we'll do it immediately."

--

The official US position is now:

- Any attempt to rebuild enrichment capacity will be bombed immediately.

- If Iran doesn't negotiate limits to its missiles, the US will also support (and maybe directly participate in) another strike on its missile program (unclear timing was unequivocal threat).

We should not assume Trump is bluffing. US negotiation terms are a non-starter to Iran, so another round of war is coming.

If Iran had truly won the war and made Israel beg for a ceasefire, it would have established deterrence to prevent such a quick follow-up attack. Clearly, that was not the case.

Iran did indeed achieve some success in hitting Israel

That's the reason why Israel is so eager to strike now whilst Iran is still rebuilding it's stocks of missiles and addressing the holes in it's defence


If Israel does nothing then Iran will rebuild it's missiles at a fast pace, build more drones, seek to address A.D issues and the lack of a airforce

Israels biggest issue is lack of interceptors, and on its own Israel is stuck because the war becomes a shooting match and Israel could take a lot of punishment

Israel NEEDS the U.S to step in to target Iranian nuclear and missile sites, even if it doesn't destroy them completely they could be set back for years


I'm not sure how quick Israeli interceptors can be replenished, but it will take a couple of years I assume

Iran has that time to address it's military holes and build missiles as quickly as possible

 

[Ali_Baba]

There was an increase of P8 flights prior to the last attack, so it is part of the build up for any possible war.

 

[Shakehands]

 

[vizier]

Mountain bases should have been made to operate even after the main gates are destroyed as was discussed in related threads. Ballistic missiles need to be ready for launch all the time. So there will be ensured high number of continious strikes over israeli targets whether the attack comes from them directly or from countries that are highly under their influence like the Usa. This capability can provide a form of basic deterrance-cost against surprise attacks. Also some portion of mobile bm launchers need to be on rotation outside continiously and keep alert. The weakest link was the launcher vehicles last time and they focused on taking them out by hermes drones-aircraft to reduce Iranian missile counter attacks. The vehicles need to stay on the move and mock launcher vehicles can be placed-carried around to confuse the satellites. Enough number of launcher vehicles-silos should have been built by now.

But bms are still a short term solution and unsustainable if not coupled with air defense. For air defense a paradigm shift is necessary. Russian-Chinese doctrine needs to be reformed from the bottom-up which failed misarebly in almost all previous conflicts. Static active radars that remain open continiously will be jammed-saturated immediately especially after their positions are mapped by elint. It is costly but basic defense is moving them hourly(or less) to new locations and reopening them everytime. Even in peacetime they should be moved continiously since the most paralyzing attacks happened as initial unexpected decapitation strikes after mapping out the radars (Venezuela, Iran).
At least in that way exact position of radars can not be mapped real time to saturate them with missiles afterwards. Radar staying open at one location more than an hour is suicide. This time can be much less and technical staff would know better. Continious movement is used effectively by Ukraine for example to protect their anti air radars and Russians cannot hit them as easily as Usa does.

The radars can still be jammed almost immediately though if enemy has that capability. Maybe fake emitters would make the enemy jammers consume more power to jam all emitters at the same time. This can saturate the flying jammers. That can be a solution which can be researched further. If the jammer platform can distinguish the fake emitters from the real radars they can filter them out though and it wont work. The fake emitters can be directional antennas operating with the radar illuminating the target at the same time consuming less power like the radar. So they cant be instantly recognised as broadcasting fake emitters by the growlers.

Another better option in my opinion is building more passive lightweight iir tracking based weapons like majid, 358 and similar systems. Also we discussed about new passive radars that can work with vhf-fm transmitters giving them operational effectiveness similar to long wavelength scanning radars. They dont emit waves as a bonus. They are also much lighter and more mobile than long wavelength radars and possibly less prone to directional jamming since the recievers are stealthy. Broadcast jamming can blind them but they are also passive sensors they can locate the broadcasting source when they are jammed. They can also filter out those signals coming from that direction if signal processing is good enough and continue to operate. The weakest link would be fm-transmitters which need to be moved around continiously to not to get mapped-detected destroyed.

That being said the best time of attack was when Iran was expecting it least and emotions were high like close to agreement with trump and they just did that. But if they see an opening they wont hesitate to attack immediately as well without pretending or playing games like before. Also trusting too much on Russians , Chinese or any other country that offer air protection would be a mistake. National ad positions-strategy should be kept secret. Systems bought from others should work in parallel to national systems as a force multiplier. If a Chinese system is hacked or jammed for example at the central part of air defense network then it would only make a portion of the system inoperable not the whole system would go down.

 

[vizier]

There was an increase of P8 flights prior to the last attack, so it is part of the build up for any possible war.

That can be used to map radars of Iran. If they are not moved continiously then it is bad news.
Another option for P8 can be to track Iranian navy-submarine fleet by sonobuoys. It was flying around before the attack on Russian submarine last time in black sea. More silent operation and continious movement is necessary for submarines. Russians parked the sub at the dock for too long and it was destroyed immediately.