Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mangekyo]

Its looking more and more like the plan is for total state collapse and fragmentation. They’ve lately been repeating that they don’t want regime change, and I think this actually gives the clue.

I think the reason they are pushing people out in the streets is because they know IRI will crack down and kill them. They need the situation to escalate and become bloodier. This gives them excuse to intervene and pretend they are protecting civilians.

They will start taking out all military bases and command centers. Then they will bring in terrorists from outside and Iran will see a brutal civil war with regular bombings from US and Israel in the name of protecting civilians. But it is to provide cover for and help the terrorists.

The reason they avoid saying regime change is because once Iran is turned into another Libya and eventually fragmented, they can say «we didn’t want regime change, this is what the Iranian people wanted»

 

[RescueRanger]

Some are claiming it was Russia, which I highly doubt, given it's zionist allegiance.

Bro, all Russia does is pay lip service. Sure they purchased a lot of drones and some missiles from Iran, but now they have their own drone factory Tartastan and rely heavily on NK for missile supplies.

 

[SaadH]

Russia’s war chest going into the Ukraine war was 500B. Putin specifically prepared for this eventuality.

Iran’s war chest is 120B and largely frozen in foreign banks.

Russia’s economy is largely supported by its lucrative natural gas (#1 exporter in the world) and oil exports. Plus it’s arms sales.

That is why Russia has survived. Despite the sanctions, Europe and China buy massive amounts of natural gas from Russia and India and China buy Russian oil. Europe is hostage to Russian natural gas because it simply doesn’t have enough alternatives (for now).

So no, Iran cannot adopt the Russian model because it simply doesn’t have the same oil production or gas production capability that Russia has—or the customers.

Russia endured because it is self-sufficient in four most critical needs of any given society, food, energy, water and defense, the latter purely owing to it's nuke arsenal. Iran has only one of these areas barely covered, on others it is reliant on external inputs hence quite easily bullied and at the mercy of zio demons and their western colonial minions.

Perhaps if Iran had went ahead and developed nukes, it could have still starved and be thirsty but could have put up a more credible defense against the zionazi vultures a la North Korea, but alas it chose a path of perennial appeasement to the West.

 

[mangekyo]

Bro, all Russia does is pay lip service. Sure they purchased a lot of drones and some missiles from Iran, but now they have their own drone factory Tartastan and rely heavily on NK for missile supplies.

Putin and Netanyahu have a deal. Putin stays out of Iran and Netanyahu makes sure US stays out of Ukraine

 

[Unknowntruth]

Bro, all Russia does is pay lip service. Sure they purchased a lot of drones and some missiles from Iran, but now they have their own drone factory Tartastan and rely heavily on NK for missile supplies.

Russia is the biggest two face country there is. Russia is no friend, they will no doubt use any country as leverage to save their ass. Any country who depends on Russia is screwed.

 

[RescueRanger]

Well Western carriers and contracted carriers have been advised to fully avoid Iranian Airspace


NoTAM:
Security - Hazardous Situation in Iran

UK civil air operators are recommended not to enter FIR TEHRAN (OIIX). Potential risk from anti-aircraft weaponry and heightened military activity.

 

[Unknowntruth]

Iran is in this position because it is run by fools. Iranian leaders have been running their mouth nonstop about their capabilities and how they will destroy Israel. Isn’t it better to stop talking shit and instead focus on developing? Stop provoking and antagonizing your enemies.

Iran put all their cards into their axis of resistance instead of building up their military getting proper fighter aircraft and enough advanced air defense systems. It thought its missile capabilities was enough to deter its enemies while having nothing to confront Israeli F35.

Iran was constantly reactive instead of taking the initiative and holding the escalation ladder. It had the axis of resistance and failed to even use them. It just let them get picked off one by one. It showed that Iran was weak and did not want a conflict.

Iran should’ve from the beginning tried to repair relations with the U.S. and build its economy and military. It should have compromised because it is evidently clear it did not want to engage in a war.

They got involved in Syria, Yemen, etc and only hurt their relations with their neighbors. They should have just focused on developing their country and providing a good life for their people instead of engaging in conflicts and putting a bullseye on themselves.

Edit:

China is many times stronger than Iran yet doesn’t behave in this way. You have to play the geopolitical game. It has its own issues with Taiwan but it doesn’t provoke others against it.

 

[RescueRanger]

Notams from Iran are fairly routine (Nothing out of the Ordinary)

1. Renewal of Firing Zones in the "Eastern Desert"
The majority of the new NOTAMs (A0207/26, B0039/26, B0041/26) are located in remote desert areas in the east of the country (South Khorasan):
* Locations: Areas such as (31N 059E) and (33N 060E).
* Significance: These are traditional training grounds located very far from the conflict front with the West. Their renewal confirms that the eastern front remains calm and stable.

2. Activation of "Permanent Danger Areas" (OID Activated)
NOTAMs (A0208/26, A0206/26, A0209/26) appeared, activating specific danger zones listed in the navigational guide (OID128, OID130, OID121).
* Locations: These areas are typically associated with fixed military installations.
* Analysis: Activating them as a "routine renewal" signifies the maintenance of the status quo without a sudden change in alert levels.

3. The Only Western Zone: "Naqadeh" (Naqadeh/Piranshahr)
The only NOTAM located in the west is (B0040/26).
* Location: A border region in the northwest (West Azerbaijan Province), near the borders with Turkey and Iraq.
* Activity: Gun Firing up to an altitude of 15,000 feet.
* Analysis: This is also a renewal of a previous NOTAM (B0869/25). Its continuation implies that vigilance remains in place along the northwestern border to prevent any Kurdish infiltration or intelligence breaches from the mountains, but it does not constitute a new escalation.

 

[RescueRanger]

Interestingly the US and its partners have positioned a high number of refullers in the region.

Exception: RRR9958 this is assigned to RAF counter insurgency operations.

 

[RescueRanger]

Interestingly the US and its partners have positioned a high number of refullers in the region.
View attachment 172111
Exception: RRR9958 this is assigned to RAF counter insurgency operations.

It seems a lot of assets have been moved to Prince Sultan Airbase see clip



Image courtesy of Chinese Miliblogger
Prince Sultan Airbase Saudi Arabia.

US Centcom has opened a new Air and Missile Defence coordination cell in Qatar on Jan 13th



Images:




The site is absolutely huge:

Sorry for crappy quality sat image ita the best I can do with a free sentinel earth viewer

 

[Navid09]

it seems a US strike against Iran is almost inevitable at this point unless Trump has a sudden change of heart

the objective can only be regime change. the question is how they intend to achieve regime change through airstrikes alone?

the IRGC and Army are united, Basij not deployed, missiles intact

I don't think it is possible to effect regime change in Iran even if they kill the entire political and military leadership. Iran is not a small group, it has a bureaucracy and civil service and 'deep state' that run things behind the scenes

Trump usually likes quick operations, so he will try to achieve regime change quickly as well

I hope Iran has thousands of missiles locked and loaded ready to drown US bases in the region. there are 5 US navy ships in the Persian Gulf. they can all be targeted quite easily

it is existential for IRI now, the time to fight back is now or never, there will not be another chance

Or maybe rather than "regime change", they just do further economic damage, pressuring Iran even further until the next protests

 

[Cash gk]

What is the latest update on Iran’s procurement of J-10 fighter jets from China? I’ve been out of touch for the last few months has there been any confirmed progress?

 

[Master Chief]

Sorry for crappy quality sat image ita the best I can do with a free sentinel earth viewer

 

[mangekyo]

Any survivable outcome depends entirely on a chain of ifs. If IRGC has some secret game changing weapons. If they don’t limit our missile launching capabilities like last time. If we don’t run out of missiles. If the economy does not collapse after they bomb all our oil facilities. If no separatist groups rise up. If ISIS stays inactive. If protests do not scale up. If Russia helps. If China helps. That is simply too many ifs, and when a strategy depends on this many conditions holding at once, it is usually already over.

 

[Hayabusa]

Interestingly the US and its partners have positioned a high number of refullers in the region.
View attachment 172111
Exception: RRR9958 this is assigned to RAF counter insurgency operations.

Seems a few reports coming out as well, pointing towards a B-2 strike.