Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Broke US is trying to break Iran, in order to break China's oil supply and power growth, to stop China from breaking US's hegemony in fhe world because US's control of the world is broken.

Did I get that right or ??

I think their (Trump administration) issue is not Iranian oil going to China; it is the trade conducted outside the US Dollar and Iran receiving revenues from this trade conducted outside their control.

 

[mangekyo]

BRICS is benign. IRI-Russia-PRC seem to be inclined towards a semi-block of their own. IRI-Russia post 2020 seem have strengthened their military relations a bit more. Russia has thrown IRI under the bus on atleast 6-7 times before so distrust is there. IRI and China have dozens of billion USD worth trade which is increasing. In 2010 it was 1/15 of what it is now.

You need to bring something to the table for such partnerships. Iran brings nothing unique to the table but headache. PGCC has a combined wealth fund of around 6 trillion dollars. China imports 80-90% of Iranian oil with huge discounts. They have a death grip on Iranian economy. Any lost Iranian oil can be replaced with Saudi oil.

Israels debt to GDP ratio rose by almost 10% from 12 days of war with Iran. Israeli Stockmarket skyrocketed. How is that possible? The capital is coming from PGCC funds. Especially from UAE.

Next step is to continue burdening Israel with debt, while PGCC asset strips Israel. China wants the middle east to be China-PGCC. This is also in line with transnational capital. Anyone in Iran who objects to chinas plan for the Middle East gets liquidated by Iranian internal coup; Soleimani, Raisi, Hajizadeh etc. Iran is just nice to have for discounted oil while the transition of power happens.

 

[VCheng]

Whether Iranian oil can be sold to China, or at what price, has very little impact on China.

You make great points, but please keep in mind the inherent tendency here to tend to overestimate one's own nation's importance on the world stage.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

 

[ToddE]

You need to bring something to the table for such partnerships. Iran brings nothing unique to the table but headache. PGCC has a combined wealth fund of around 6 trillion dollars. China imports 80-90% of Iranian oil with huge discounts. They have a death grip on Iranian economy. Any lost Iranian oil can be replaced with Saudi oil.

For Saudi oil, Chinese will need to pay back in USD which they will need to purchase against something of their own considering nobody is gonna exchange RMB to USD in such huge numbers. Also the oil will come at market rate. Its not this simple.

Israels debt to GDP ratio rose by almost 10% from 12 days of war with Iran. Israeli Stockmarket skyrocketed. How is that possible? The capital is coming from PGCC funds. Especially from UAE.

Israelis dont have to worry at all because most of the creditors are in their pocket or their own people sitting inside financial institutions of west. Israel had such economic dents before. Just like weaponry, they summon money out of nowhere and get back to it.

Next step is to continue burdening Israel with debt, while PGCC asset strips Israel. China wants the middle east to be China-PGCC. This is also in line with transnational capital. Anyone in Iran who objects to chinas plan for the Middle East gets liquidated by Iranian internal coup; Soleimani, Raisi, Hajizadeh etc. Iran is just nice to have for discounted oil while the transition of power happens.

I think this new group we keep seeing in IRI has no interest in Israel and rightly so. They are kinda systematically getting rid of likes of staunch anti-Israeli elements like Gen. Soleimani, Raisi, Hajizadeh types. Khamenei is old and will be gone naturally in time. Process gets accelerated if war + riots happen again.

 

[LX1111]

That $5 figure used to be correct (almost), but it is outdated now.
After the June war with Israel, China has ramped up oil imports from Iran (even Trump tweeted about it and claimed he had allowed it) and Iran has increased its discount to China as well. Also, add deferred payments and payment in RMB to the equation too. That gives China even more economic profit.

China will not bail out Iran. China's diplomatic strategy in the Middle East has always been based on the Pakistan-Gulf countries-Iraq line.
Other countries can also supply the oil that Iran provides. If the United States wants to cut off the oil transport route from the Persian Gulf to China, then China will be unable to obtain Iranian oil, just like Saudi oil.Therefore, the existence of the current Iranian regime cannot improve the security of China's oil import routes.
Therefore, China will not invest too many resources in the current Iranian regime.

 

[LX1111]

For Saudi oil, Chinese will need to pay back in USD which they will need to purchase against something of their own considering nobody is gonna exchange RMB to USD in such huge numbers. Also the oil will come at market rate. Its not this simple.

China holds the rights to two-thirds of Iraq's oil fields, so we don't lack sources of oil imports. China's trade surplus last year was $1.2 trillion, so China isn't too worried about oil prices. What China is concerned about is the security of shipping routes from the Persian Gulf to China—how to ensure they aren't cut off by the Americans.

 

[kastor ville]

I wonder what is going on in Tel-Aviv nowadays. They're constantly in the news with Gaza and Epstein. Their crown jewel of an organization AIPAC is getting defeated in the US regional races. They're economy is in the toilet...They're borrowing money to keep afloat. We just heard their strongest advocate in the House of Lords...Just resigned, which may eventually bring down the Starmer government. I mean, from close up it looks like theyre winning battles, but they're losing the war.

 

[ToddE]

US destroyed the 3 largest and core nuclear sites of Iran and there is not a shred of doubt about that.

Can you provide actual published evidence for this statement? I will comment further when you bring the evidence of exact level of destruction but for now even IAEA or credible watchdogs TT's like CFR have not confirmed anything or been to the site so how does one know what really happened hundreds of feets below surface ?

Iran cannot enrich any further Uranium.

Then what do you think US and IRI are bargaining on in Oman? If enrichment was "gone beyond doubt” then the core US demand would be about stockpiles + monitoring, not “no enrichment” that US is constantly demanding. The demand itself suggests the capability is viewed as sustained, not magically erased.

US didn't claim that they destroyed the Uranium which was already enriched.

You are wrong. Trump literally said "nothing was taken out", and Hegseth said "nothing" was moved i.e. they were publicly saying that HEU got caught in the attack. And Ratcliffe also said later that most enriched uranium is trapped under rubble.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-known-intelligence-that-iran-moved-uranium-us-defense-chief-says-2025-06-26/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/26/iran-underground-nuclear-us/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

If bombs reached wherever it was stored then you are not talking about shipable cylinders anymore, you are talking about debris of earth, concrete, sand, rocks, half a tonne HEU mixed into it spread everywhere. The recovery itself will need probably hundreds of millions of USD and extremely well equipped teams (who is gonna provide that?) for recovery and radiological cleanup with uncertain material accountancy. Even the IAEA has indicated it couldnot account for HEU stockpile after the strikes. So what exactly is US asking for here?

There is some amount of 60% enriched uranium with Iran (Weapon grade is 90% though). 60% enriched Uranium can be used to make a low powerful but a physically a very large sized bomb (like a school bus). Cannot be transported via BMs. Possible through containers.

And water is wet. I guess everybody knows what LEU, HEU, EGU is. Some of us including me (since its our matter) have even written paragraphs on how many tactical-theatre level fission or boosted fission devices can be made out of available HEU->WGU using spread out cascades of IR-4M->IR-8/9 and where etc. I actually posted a thread on it. Anyways.

 

[mulj]

I stomped on some propaganda video about launching rockets underwater, video was russian one but is there any possibility that Iran extended tunnels below sea level at least to have some fixed launching points under sea bed for while in case of potential war?

 

[ToddE]

I wonder what is going on in Tel-Aviv nowadays. They're constantly in the news with Gaza and Epstein. Their crown jewel of an organization AIPAC is getting defeated in the US regional races. They're economy is in the toilet...They're borrowing money to keep afloat. We just heard their strongest advocate in the House of Lords...Just resigned, which may eventually bring down the Starmer government. I mean, from close up it looks like theyre winning battles, but they're losing the war.

They are going nowhere. AIPAC, IAC etc are just one way of keeping grip over Congress and other venues in US.

Epstein files leverage seem to be lost though. People are not reacting to it the way Jews would have hoped.

 

[LX1111]

I wonder what is going on in Tel-Aviv nowadays. They're constantly in the news with Gaza and Epstein. Their crown jewel of an organization AIPAC is getting defeated in the US regional races. They're economy is in the toilet...They're borrowing money to keep afloat. We just heard their strongest advocate in the House of Lords...Just resigned, which may eventually bring down the Starmer government. I mean, from close up it looks like theyre winning battles, but they're losing the war.

Don't be ridiculous. Israel is the core of US Middle East policy. As long as the US doesn't collapse, Israel cannot fail. The Israeli Air Force still has the capability and willingness to launch large-scale long-range strikes against Tehran. Now it's just waiting for Trump's order.
The only thing Iran can do now is to deploy as many air defense missiles and radars as possible, and to purchase radars from Russia or China at all costs.

 

[ToddE]

Good riddance, we cant waste money anymore on countering "Israeli". Jewlani's appointment in Syria is kinda helping Iran save money since weaponry, advisors etc ant reach Lebanon anymore. Israel can bomb and rubble Lebanon or whatever it is already doing there on daily basis. Not our concern, actually it never was if we keep few Islamists out.

 

[ToddE]

It's all smoke and mirrors.... Most of the vocal Iranians on social platforms are Israelis or paid by the Israelis. The few actual Iranians that are posting are not really bright enough for Iran to need their expertise. They wouldn't last the week in Iran. These are the Beverly Hills and California Highland type who barely speak Farsi......they're just parroting what they're hearing on social media. I lost count how many times I saw 10,000 dead, 20,000 dead, and then 60,000 dead....no joke, today some ahole posted that there was 89,000 dead.

Iranian cyber space is full of either non Iranians giving zero-value meaningless opinions or self loathing Iranians with ego bigger than Iran itself. To a typical Iranian, being proven right is bigger than actual damage being done to Iran because of extremism we have in our society. This is how we ruined worlds 12th-15th largest economy in 1979 and installed Islamists and Marxists to ruin the country because radical elements had no other constructive venue.

 

[ToddE]

Araghchi's secret plan is to use talks as an excuse for vacations.