Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

It would've made no difference in the outcome though.
Had Iran not retaliated then, they would've still hit us harder each time because they would've concluded that we weren't able to retaliate.

This is assuming that they didn't have intel on our missile technology, which is wrong in my opinion.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

crappy analyst
couldnt foresee Ukraine loss!

 

[mulj]

It would've made no difference in the outcome though.
Had Iran not retaliated then, they would've still hit us harder each time because they would've concluded that we weren't able to retaliate.

This is assuming that they didn't have intel on our missile technology, which is wrong in my opinion.

It is dubious analysis, it was not total war and time span is to short to draw such conclusions, this is just biased wishful thinking in favor of attack. Iran just need to have longer attrition capability which in theory it should have due nature of used weapons.
I remember that people who are familiar with missile forces of Iran explained rather well that large chunk of used missiles are older ones and within operational expire date.
Although Iran has two main problems internal security challenges and actual number of missiles is relatively small if estimations are true that you have only 3000 thousands ones of longer ranges, that complicate operational planning to achieve maximum impact and retain ability to fire last shot.

 

[Immortals]

On which problems he is referring ?
Only ones i noticed are gauged missile bases and apparently low stocks of missiles which is debatable.

Did you read the thread?







Iran built its entire deterrence policy on Israel around Hezbollah and missiles. But Iran fired 600+ missiles between operation TP 1 & 2 and didn’t do much damage.

That is what emboldens the US/Israel today.

 

[mulj]

Did you read the thread?







Iran built its entire deterrence policy on Israel around Hezbollah and missiles. But Iran fired 600+ missiles between operation TP 1 & 2 and didn’t do much damage.

That is what emboldens the US/Israel today.

I did and my reply to you is same as to @ShapurII

 

[mulj]

Both of these 2 are dubious characters
Best to ignore list them.

I see that their views are often controversial but they also provide sometimes rather valuable insights and are emphasizing some objective short comes of IRI which is necessary in avoiding internal eco chambers and correcting those if possible.

 

[Immortals]

I did and my reply to you is same as to @ShapurII

2020 Iranian missiles were assumed to have high accuracy from the Al-Assad attack

2023-2024, it was shown that Iranian missiles are vulnerable to space tracking assets and statistically their accuracy and QA issue meant that you would have to fire many to score direct hits. But the more you have to fire at once, the easier it is to detect by the enemy’s.

This is not a sustainable deterrence because Iran would need tens of thousands of LR missiles to be able to fight Israel/US who can use CMs and PGMs instead. So just as Israel has an interceptor supply issue, Iran has a missile production/dispersion issue.

This is one reason why instead of producing 15 different sub sonic drones, Iran should have focused on a building supersonic high altitude bomber drone that can drop PGMs and enter and exit enemy airspace quickly.

Because relying only on missiles and slow drones to hit your opponents is not a strategy that works in a conflict that lasts longer than a few weeks.

 

[Comandante]

My opinion is that maybe China will notice the big opportunity. The American carriers are a clear target for Iran, China would have the opportunity to sink 1/3 of the American carriers by using the Iranian proxy. This option is an unmissable opportunity. The other thing is, the Iranian missiles should already be at the launch sites with the coordinates entered so that they can be launched immediately.

 

[ShapurII]

It is dubious analysis, it was not total war and time span is to short to draw such conclusions, this is just biased wishful thinking in favor of attack. Iran just need to have longer attrition capability which in theory it should have due nature of used weapons.
I remember that people who are familiar with missile forces of Iran explained rather well that large chunk of used missiles are older ones and within operational expire date.
Although Iran has two main problems internal security challenges and actual number of missiles is relatively small if estimations are true that you have only 3000 thousands ones of longer ranges, that complicate operational planning to achieve maximum impact and retain ability to fire last shot.

When you fire 600 missiles in TP III, but your success rate is less than 20% and of those 20%, you hardly hit anything of strategic value to the Israeli war machine, you lose your deterrence completely.

Even 3,000 missiles is a large stockpile for a middle power like Iran.

It had been stated, times and times again, that MRBMs are not meant to be taken as the main offensive tool in your military strategy. MRBMs with only inertial navigation and ring-laser gyroscopes will not be able to reach a CEP better than 50-100m. Iran needed satellite navigation but Iran's space program was halted in 2013. Another wonderful concession to get that damn JCPOA signed.

This is why global powers do not count on MRBMs for offense and still maintain large air forces. To equalize the capability of a modern air force like the IAF, I once calculated that Iran needed well over 50,000 MRBMs with satnav, and Iran never even got close to that number. And my assumption was that our success rate would be 50%. With 20% success rate, Iran needed over 100,000 MRBMs!

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

Did you read the thread?







Iran built its entire deterrence policy on Israel around Hezbollah and missiles. But Iran fired 600+ missiles between operation TP 1 & 2 and didn’t do much damage.

That is what emboldens the US/Israel today.

no, real metric for IR missile deterrent is, no. of upper atmosphere interceptions, used to take down missiles at that altitude.


accuracy is'nt a concern, AD penetration is!

 

[Tehrani021]

The Iranian attack on Qatar as a retaliation was certainly part of an arranged event to defuse the situation then; the casualties you are referring to were indeed sad but happened before that.
Details matter.

The attack on Qatar didnt kill anyone, was a retaliation and Iran didn't instigate that event to begin with...so yes, details do matter!

 

[mulj]

2020 Iranian missiles were assumed to have high accuracy from the Al-Assad attack

2023-2024, it was shown that Iranian missiles are vulnerable to space tracking assets and statistically their accuracy and QA issue meant that you would have to fire many to score direct hits. But the more you have to fire at once, the easier it is to detect by the enemy’s.

This is not a sustainable deterrence because Iran would need tens of thousands of LR missiles to be able to fight Israel/US who can use CMs and PGMs instead. So just as Israel has an interceptor supply issue, Iran has a missile production/dispersion issue.

This is one reason why instead of producing 15 different sub sonic drones, Iran should have focused on a building supersonic high altitude bomber drone that can drop PGMs and enter and exit enemy airspace quickly.

Because relying only on missiles and slow drones to hit your opponents is not a strategy that works in a conflict that lasts longer than a few weeks.

Well, lets see will chinese help about target management would be real, that change equation fundamentally even with flaws you described.
At the end Iran can afford everything except falling and that is were i would drain optimism, from strategic point of view Iran chance is would be destroying usa forward bases and closing gulf straits after that could move battle closer to Iran for which you should be better prepared and could preserve some strategic missiles for later stages. In essence bigger regional chaos more leverage for you.

 

[mulj]

When you fire 600 missiles in TP III, but your success rate is less than 20% and of those 20%, you hardly hit anything of strategic value to the Israeli war machine, you lose your deterrence completely.

Even 3,000 missiles is a large stockpile for a middle power like Iran.

It had been stated, times and times again, that MRBMs are not meant to be taken as the main offensive tool in your military strategy. MRBMs with only inertial navigation and ring-laser gyroscopes will not be able to reach a CEP better than 50-100m. Iran needed satellite navigation but Iran's space program was halted in 2013. Another wonderful concession to get that damn JCPOA signed.

This is why global powers do not count on MRBMs for offense and still maintain large air forces. To equalize the capability of a modern air force like the IAF, I once calculated that Iran needed well over 50,000 MRBMs with satnav, and Iran never even got close to that number. And my assumption was that our success rate would be 50%. With 20% success rate, Iran needed over 100,000 MRBMs!

What can i say, you work with what you have, it is discussed who knows how many times about specifics and disadvantages of chosen approach, now all you can do is to buckle up and be consistent and persistent, those two are winning wars along logistic and human sacrifices.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

This is one reason why instead of producing 15 different sub sonic drones, Iran should have focused on a building supersonic high altitude bomber drone that can drop PGMs and enter and exit enemy airspace quickly.

Under no circumstances would Iran be able to build a "supersonic high altitude bomber" that can penetrate Israeli airspace, drop PGMs and exit.

 

[kastor ville]

Not even after 2016?
Anybody with average IQ could've predicted that Trump would return to the White House after 4 super bad years of having Biden and Kamala Harris in the office.

When Biden won the presidential election in 2018, I remember I insisted that it was a God given opportunity to prepare for the war when Trump returns to the office. I insisted we had to build the bomb and improve our military by investing hugely in air force and air defense.

People here really thought Iran was some world-class military with hypersonic missiles with pin-point accuracy without sat navigation. lol

I just saw your edit. What happened to Rial after the agreement? Nothing! It didn't appreciate against USD at all.
In fact, when Rohani took the office, 1 USD was nearly 3,600 IRT and when he left the office after the JCPOA, 1 USD was nearly 30,000 IRT. Stop blaming it on the hardliners. Rohani and Zarif weren't any better either.

No they didn't....they didn't know about Elon Musk, with his algo.....they didn't see the hate Dems had for the party over Gaza. They didn't know how lukewarm people were against another underqualified woman as the presidential candidate.
Why do think that is? Because the entire democratic party leadership is run by Jews....the Republican party is run by whites bankrolled by Jews. So, they orchestrated it. They were going to run Biden again, but during the debate he fuked up the Dems chances......when they panicked and picked Kamala without even putting it to a vote...it was then we found out , holy crap Trump will win again.

PS: the stupid Dems biggest mistake was when they said they wanted to tax unrealized gain....for you non financial people, when you sell an investment, you're taxed on the profit.......but not until you sell it, some dumb sobs wanted to tax the rich by saying we will tax them on how big their gains are, even if they haven't cashed out. this caused the biggest mobilization of rich people against the Dems....why do think Elon got involved....freedom? Democracy? Lol, don't make me laugh. He got involved because the SOB doesn't pay taxes.....he borrow money against his stock, so he sells very few shares. Then the borrowed money is used to offset even more taxes, because he has to pay interest on the borrowed billions...so he gets a tax refund.