It is going to be a rout for Iran. Death of few civilians or military personnel from the West/GCC due to Iranian missiles is unlikely to turn the tide for Iran. Iran doesn’t have the muscle power to really cause damage of a scale that might make US/Israel to get intimidated.
It is understandable that Iran didn’t have very many options to create a credible Air Force but they did have an option to create a potent Air Defence along with a powerful Missile/Rocket Force. That might have made a lot a difference.
There are few more deductions that are pertinent to US -Iran situation and impact on global order.
- US is the foremost power without any doubt. They have what it takes, to launch an operation at a scale that can’t be matched by anyone else, for a foreseeable future.
- China may have weapons and platforms at a similar scale as the US, but doesn’t have political willpower to undertake a similar operation. A very big reason could be lack of powerful allies. Few African and Asian midgets is all that they have as allies and these too would fall in line if the West just as much gives one stern look at them. Recent action in Venezuela and now in Iran shows that China is still faraway from exerting it’s military heft.
- Iran did have Chinese AD (specifically HQ8/9) but it proved to be a dud. Why and how might be a matter of great interest to many military observers.
- A large number of posters are celebrating attacks on the UAE. Many of them are ecstatic that this is the end of UAE. Nothing more than a juvenile concept that is likely to bite the dust within a short time. Iran has attacked not only the UAE but also Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. The scale of damage isn’t much and once Iran has fallen, the turnaround of all these economies is likely to be very fast.
- A very important lesson on self defence has been learned by all these countries under attack by Iran. They all had offloaded their Air Defence to the US and we all can see how bad this decision was. US umbrella has miserably failed to provide any useful protection to anyone. Even own US installations and embassies have been struck.
Nations need to have some self reliance in this aspect.
- Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait might join the offensive directly. That would create a very unique situation for many nations that have a defence pact with any of these.
- Expectations of an Ukraine type resistance by Iran is extremely unlikely. The reason is lack of any support to Iran from any quarter. Iran is going to fall and the only question is not IF but WHEN.
