Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

Doesn’t look like Jack Murphy is as reliable as we thought:



Meanwhile @Persian Gulf had 2 mini heart attacks and one minor stroke the last 3 hours but is in stable condition.

 

[Raider 21]

Laakhon Pakistanis have lost their jobs already. We all know somebody facing total ruin after a lifetime of working and contributing to the economy of the GCC.

Another example of where they are only on equal footing in the mosque during prayer

 

[ShapurII]

Different cards:
- Hormuz
- Bab-Al-Mandab
- Destroying regional energy infrastructure

No country in the world is able to control/choke 25% of Worlds trade through these 2 straits. Only Iran (and allies) have this power.

Striking US bases is to disrupt their logistical operations, very important in preventing invasion and supporting our own offensive operations.

I don't want to spread defeatism as one of the users here said.

But realistically, the way this war is progressing, this is moving towards the Dahiya Strategy now, i.e. they are going to hit Iran's critical civilian infrastructure to inflict pain on Iranians as collective punishment and demoralize us.

Now, assuming this war continues for more than 6 months, by then, Iran will already have run out of our old stockpile of missiles and drones.
How many missiles can we produce per month? Including MRBMs. Nobody knows the exact figure but I believe it is somewhere between 100-300 in the most optimistic scenario.

We are firing 20-30 missiles per day now. In that situation, we will be forced to fire 5-10 missiles per day. I hope I'm wrong though, because missiles are our only real deterrence in this war.

We can still keep the Strait of Hormuz closed by disrupting navigation there, but it won't be like now that we are literally controlling traffic there.

Bab el-Mandeb depends on the Houthis of Yemen. Nobody knows how much we can count on them 6 months later. They might get crushed by then, or show less willingness to go all in for us.

Destroying regional energy infrastructure is our last resort and it happens only once. Once it happens, it can no longer be used as a card.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Doesn’t look like Jack Murphy is as reliable as we thought:



Meanwhile @Persian Gulf had 2 mini heart attacks and one minor stroke the last 3 hours but is in stable condition.

it's too early to celebrate anything.

sunrise is in 30 mins so they either have him by now or not.

my condition will not be stable until I know we somehow have the pilot

 

[BigMela2onin]

Yes, that's the only silver lining here that I can think of. But ironically, even though our enemies are running out of interceptors, we do not see a meaningful increase in our destructive power. That's what worries me. Our target selection in Week 5 wasn't that good.

The bargaining chip isn't what we already hit but what we can hit. Their ability to defend infrastructure decreases with every interceptor used. The bargaining chip is "we won't destroy this" not "look at how much we destroyed."

Do you seriously think that the USN cannot target Iranian oil tankers in the Arabian Sea or the Indian Ocean? Do you think Iran is selling oil because of military reasons? We can't even escort our tankers.

No it's selling for economic reasons, I never said otherwise. The fact is, for economic reasons they haven't intercepted any shipments yet. If they start to, Iran will stop selling and prices will rise even higher.

The Vietnam War was unpopular in the US. It lasted 2 f*cking decades.

Vietnam didn't raise gas prices to $4 and LBJ didn't say he was going to cut all federal funding for healthcare and daycare to pay for it. They also went to the trouble of faking Tonkin while Trump just shrugged and said "bibi made me do it." And even so, Vietnam won that war regardless of how long it took them to do it.

Europe is still pretty much in an alliance with the US. Do you know why Europeans are not interested in this war? First and foremost, immigration. They do not want a failed state with 93 million Muslims next to Europe. Also, Iran is the only thing that keeps Afghan immigrants from going to Turkey and Europe. After that, they have economic reasons. None of this means that Europe has broken with the US.

Trump said help us, Europe said no, regardless of what reasons they have. Macron admitted Hormuz can only be opened with Iranian cooperation, and he's right. The ukroids are doing us a favor by hitting Russian oil, it increases Iran's leverage against Europe.

Our AD is still functional but it is not performing as wonderfully as people here like to claim. They have had thousands of sorties over Iran in the last 36 days and we have shot down only an F-15.
Also, we failed to shoot down a C-130 that was deep inside our territory for several hours.

Yet it means they have to take precautions, use expensive and limited stand off weapons which are not as quickly or easily replaced. This affects operational planning, suddenly the ground invasion is made less safe and more costly to cover by air and it may force them to scale back their goals.

You really need to differentiate between criticism and defeatism. If valid criticisms had not been overlooked in the last 20 years, we wouldn't have been in this situation in the first place.

Criticism can occur before and after the conflict. Spreading fears that we're going to lose land and there's no hope to defeat an invasion because of one maybe successful maybe not operation is defeatism.

 

[mangekyo]

we had some pretty good advantages that should enable us to inflict serious harm on their rescue efforts, even if not able to defeat them entirely

alas

They have the advantage. They can hit us from above way faster than we can mobilize troops or AD units. The cost is way too high. We need to preserve what we have for the possible ground invasion.

 

[Immortals]

US Congress rep for Nebraska tweeted this 40 mins ago.

Says it’s not confirmed but he got it from “3 different reports”, likely all citing Jack Murphy.

 

[Shags101]

Doesn’t look like Jack Murphy is as reliable as we thought:



Meanwhile @Persian Gulf had 2 mini heart attacks and one minor stroke the last 3 hours but is in stable condition.

To be fair if he was the only one to go doom and gloom I’m like didn’t they just take out several aircraft to varying degree the day before and whatever else they blew up in multiple countries……Iran is definitely strong and courageous agree or disagree with politics of Iran don’t disparage the men and women of Iran.

 

[Kyussis]

can you tell me what you have seen the air force do in Iran in the last 2 weeks?

I don't expect the air force to do ANYTHING at this stage in the war except to keep their heads down and survive. Iran has been planning for this war for decades. Our planners know the strength and weakness of their own forces and that of the enemy intimately. Iran has proven that their planning is viable by being in the fight five weeks after they were "pearl Harboured" by the United States of America and Israel. I am not in a position to dictate what our armed forces should be doing and neither is anyone else here. We are mere observers. All i can do is keep calm, trust the plan and hope for the best.

 

[Immortals]

@Persian Gulf

vahid is an Iranian opposition source I believe. Apparently people filmed the bodies of US Spec Ops.

Looks to me more likely to be plain clothes Basij or IRGC. But it’s not unthinkable that tier one operator would deploy in plain civilian clothes to blend in as they search. They have been seen in civilian clothes before.

 

[ShapurII]

They have the advantage. They can hit us from above way faster than we can mobilize troops or AD units. The cost is way too high. We need to preserve what we have for the possible ground invasion.

They are going to continue having this advantage over us throughout the war, you know?

 

[Kyussis]

Artesh better trained? You smoking crack?

Artesh is entirely conscript force. Basically kids doing 18 months of duty then being discharged. Unlike US military it does not provide salary contracts or keep a noticeable standing force in peace time.

IRGC Is both conscript and maintains a standing force. Better trained. Better funded.

But overall the armed forces of Iran are one of the weakest branches. That’s because there is just is not enough money to go around.

Out of $20-25B annual budget probably 60-70% goes to IRGC and mostly to missiles. The rest goes to overall maintenance, food, pay, and upkeep of all the branches in the military.

If Irans GDP is $400B - it spends about 5% on defense. Not enough to modernize a force. Iran likely needs a military budget closer to 75B to begin modernizing and training its massive conscript force or moving to a contract model like the U.S.

Both Artesh and Sepah are comprised largely of Conscripts but both have a core of professional career officers and NCOs.

 

[Garcia Sea]

The Iranian military's failure to secure pilots demonstrates their lack of adaptation to ground warfare.
Iran has repeatedly suffered bombing attacks and desperately sought countermeasures, but it completely lacks experience in ground combat.
If Trump had decided on a large-scale ground invasion from day one, the Iranian military would likely have panicked due to the unexpected ground battle, similar to the Iraq War. Trump's delay in deciding to begin ground combat was likely an unexpected stroke of luck for Iran.

 

[Shags101]

Planet Labs announces blackout on war on Iran images​

The satellite imaging company has said it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the ⁠region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the Trump administration.

The restriction expands upon a 14-day delay on imagery of the Middle East that Planet Labs implemented last month, which extended an initial 96-hour delay, a move the firm said was meant to prevent adversaries from using the imagery to attack the US and its allies.

Planet Labs said it will withhold imagery dating back to March 9 and ‌that it expects the policy to remain in effect until the end of the war.

Sounds like they are trying to hide something that can’t be hidden anymore a war that’s going fantastic ahead of schedule seems like they don’t want to show their “successes”

 

[mangekyo]

They are going to continue having this advantage over us throughout the war, you know

That’s completely fine and was always expected.