Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[r3alist]

Exactly. Hostilities between the US and Iran will never end until one side is either changed politically or accepts defeat.
Maybe back in 1980s or 1990s, there was a way of reconciliation between the US and Iran. But now that Israel publicly dictates the US what to do, and Israel has never been this aggressive in decades, there's no way.
There is no win-win situation anymore. No 50-50 concessions. No restoration of ties. One side has to defeat the other.


That's irrelevant because the costs will be imposed on us anyway. The US is not going to have mercy on us because they met us in Islamabad yesterday. The US wants everything they want to get, and even when they get it, they will start plotting their next move. Their whole reason for insisting on handing over the uranium stockpile is because they want to plot their next moves immediately after it has been secured.


Japan turned out to be one of the world's poles of economic and scientific power. Not a good example, but yes, you either win or you lose. If you win, the rewards are tremendous. If you lose, the consequences are tremendous too.

Well I see your logic, it is very harsh and I don't think even with the religiously-minded clerical leadership would go this far.

There is one aspect you miss, the equation is not Israel, USA and Iran alone......Iran has neighbours who also have considerations, and you cannot or should not come across as if their passivity can be taken for granted, Turkey and Pakistan have restive borders. Hopefully this is just talk and not a real consideration.

The first 10 days, 20 days 30 days maybe three months...ok.

 

[r3alist]

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[Persian Gulf]

Also, Trump is already talking about imposing a maritime siege on Iran. Just like what they did to Venezuela and Cuba. So, nothing will enter Iran or leave Iran. No oil exports, no food and pharmaceutical imports, nothing.

there is already a lot of grey/black market smuggling across Iran's very large borders, that will continue

Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan. These are huge land borders. Iran doesn't even police them properly, let alone the US.

 

[ShapurII]

...and Washington will force Pakistan and Turkey to shut down their borders with Iran? I don't think so.

Who said anything about Turkey or Pakistan? Damn, you're a narcissist lol

Is Turkey going to export 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to China on the land? How are you going to do that? You want to load our barrels on trucks? rofl

 

[Musings]

I read about 10 pages on here and then on AL jazeera I just listened to press interview with Iranian delegation and I saw JD vance after close of meetings.

Some of you guys are a bit excitable did you expect after 1 meeting albeit 21 hours or so for their to be a magical break thru? I think we were all a bit apprehensive before the meetings and with good reason

The Iranian interview stated there was some agreement but on 3 or 4 issues there was much difference.

Vance said they left a deal on the table. obviously not to Iran's satisfaction.


When looking Pakistan and how neutral they were look Shabaz Sharif body language just check out his hugs with Iranian and American delegation

I was amazed that lead delegates of Iran and US actually shook hands

Lets hope there are further discussions whilst there is no break thru there's no break down either.

There is too much imo for Trump not to agree to some deal despite his bombastic bollocks. Both his domestic issues and the effect of closure of straights and the very bad effect on the entire world economy

On the Iranian side despite their brilliant response and bravery Iranian life is precious we don't want more destruction of Iran

The only real issue is can America put down Israeli blood lust

So be prepared for worse but hope and pray for best,

Excellent post bro

 

[LeonBlack08]

Iran got played a 3rd time

These two weeks were nothing more than time for Israel to move its interceptors around and for US to bring in more air defenses, equipment and troops into the region. Israel was running lone and in single digits for interceptors. The US and Israel likely have to steal NATO stocks and Asia stocks to replenish for now.

Vance came and likely delivered the same crappy deal as before: No enrichment, No HEU, limit missiles, and drop support for Hezbollah in exchange for some sanctions relief.

Qalibaf and Argachi spent alot of political capital to make themselves look like fool.

Think of this as a political win for Iran. If the war dragged on for years, eventually people would have become weary and called for ceasefire and blamed the government for not going for a ceasefire with US. The Zionists are waiting to cause a civilian uprising which is why they have been targeting civilians from day 1.

But, that is out of the picture now. Iran government demonstrated once again that they went to negotiations in good faith and it is US who didn't negotiate in good faith.

This political stunt bought support and time from the people of Iran. This is important because in the coming days the Zionists will be like mad dogs and attack more civilian infrastructure to turn people against the government.

 

[Eşbah]

Looks like Israeli media was right from the start. Talks were doomed to fail. Explains why Bibi never stopped attacking Lebanon, he saw straight thru this ruse by Trump.

It’s becoming more likely that all 3 parties (Pakistan, Iran, and U.S.) did this ceasefire and peace summit for different reasons

• Iran to open its missile bases and move assets around
• US to give Trump an off ramp from the wiping out civilization tweet
• Pakistan to fulfill MBS’s request for troops and planes per defense treaty

Now the war will resume. In the meantime, the biggest losers are Argachi and Qalibaf who thought they could once again convince the Americans to treat them as equals

Anyone who has been monitoring the political developments in our region for over a month would not have expected these negotiations to result in a peace agreement, especially one that includes Lebanon. You should know better. You're a smart guy.

This entire topic, particularly our friends from Pakistan,went overboard with such enthusiasm that any form of criticism or pessimism was perceived as an act of betrayal. Being realistic should nit be seen as taking a side.

Iran must fight in this conflict until it reaches a point of no return. There are no conditions or exceptions here. It is a matter of fighting to survive or facing extinction.

I also believe that any lasting peace agreement in future will include the Arab states and Turkey. So, any serious negotiation will see other major players at the table.

 

[ShapurII]

Well I see your logic, it is very harsh and I don't think even with the religiously-minded clerical leadership would go this far.

The clerical leadership is anything but religiously-minded, as we have previously seen with their nuclear fatwa. They are self-preserving and prefer to stay in power than to make a bold move and lose everything. And that's exactly the type of mentality that has brought us to this situation now. One can only hope that the IRGC thinks differently.

There is one aspect you miss, the equation is not Israel, USA and Iran alone......Iran has neighbours who also have considerations, and you cannot or should not come across as if their passivity can be taken for granted, Turkey and Pakistan have restive borders. Hopefully this is just talk and not a real consideration.

Turkey and Pakistan are of little significance in major global affairs. Major players of this game are the US and China, and surprisingly tiny Israel because of its tremendous influence in the Western world, particularly on the US. After the US and China, Russia comes second, then you have the UK and France to a much lesser extent.

The first 10 days, 20 days 30 days maybe three months...ok.

I didn't understand this part. All I know is that the US is not going to give Iran a deal with remotely favorable terms until it feels they have no other option left.

 

[ShapurII]

there is already a lot of grey/black market smuggling across Iran's very large borders, that will continue

Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan. These are huge land borders. Iran doesn't even police them properly, let alone the US.

You cannot export your oil on the land. Do you know how many trucks it takes to transport one small tanker worth of oil? About 6,000 trucks, just for one tanker! Just a regular tanker, not a super tanker.

And these trucks will use so much gasoline that the price of transporting your oil shipment skyrockets. Not to mention other factors like time.

 

[Persian Gulf]

You cannot export your oil on the land. Do you know how many trucks it takes to transport one small tanker worth of oil? About 6,000 trucks, just for one tanker! Just a regular tanker, not a super tanker.

And these trucks will use so much gasoline that the price of transporting your oil shipment skyrockets. Not to mention other factors like time.

I didn't say it won't have a negative impact, but you said "nothing will enter Iran or leave Iran". Oil is smuggled through fishing boats on the Persian Gulf every day. And other goods will certainly enter through land borders, so it is not correct to say nothing will enter or leave Iran.

 

[Eşbah]

Who said anything about Turkey or Pakistan? Damn, you're a narcissist lol

Is Turkey going to export 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to China on the land? How are you going to do that? You want to load our barrels on trucks? rofl

What are you talking about? It seems you are switching between various arguments without ending the topic you initiated.

You brought up the issue of pharmaceuticals, food, and goods being restricted from entering the Iranian market. In response, I argued how Washington plans to close the borders of Pakistan and Turkey with Iran to successfully enforce such a blockade.

What's narcissistic about that?

 

[Ali_Baba]

The moment China starts delivering weapons to Iran, it won't stop at MANPADS as the conflict escalates.

We have to see if China follows through, and actually delivers.

If low altitude can be saturated with MANPADS, that makes land invasion extremely difficult for the USA as they can't guarantee air support for those formations.

Not sure what the USA next move is, as a naval blockade will force up oil prices which is the very thing that Trump has been trying to avoid.

What next? More of the same ?

 

[ghazi52]

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[mangekyo]

Think of this as a political win for Iran. If the war dragged on for years, eventually people would have become weary and called for ceasefire and blamed the government for not going for a ceasefire with US. The Zionists are waiting to cause a civilian uprising which is why they have been targeting civilians from day 1.

But, that is out of the picture now. Iran government demonstrated once again that they went to negotiations in good faith and it is US who didn't negotiate in good faith.

This political stunt bought support and time from the people of Iran. This is important because in the coming days the Zionists will be like mad dogs and attack more civilian infrastructure to turn people against the government.

It also shows the world that Iran is rational and serious about making deals. Just because the US wants to sacrifice the world for Israel, it doesn’t mean the rest of the world has to do the same. It should strengthen our position regarding Hormuz s bit. Its possible to make deals without the US afterall. Iran also showed the Americans that Trump will always be Israel first

 

[r3alist]

The clerical leadership is anything but religiously-minded, as we have previously seen with their nuclear fatwa. They are self-preserving and prefer to stay in power than to make a bold move and lose everything. And that's exactly the type of mentality that has brought us to this situation now. One can only hope that the IRGC thinks differently

I think what you might be really saying is you are of the view that you either win as absolutely as possible, or if you do not then you are content with starting again as the losing side but an opportunity to effectively have an improved social contract between the Iranian people and whoever the new leadership is


and then that really means coming into the Israeli orbit geopolitically, after all netanyahu has stated he believes Iran and Israel will eventually become great friends, and it's not as if there is not a pro Western faction somewhere in the Iranian polity

Turkey and Pakistan are of little significance in major global affairs. Major players of this game are the US and China, and surprisingly tiny Israel because of its tremendous influence in the Western world, particularly on the US. After the US and China, Russia comes second, then you have the UK and France to a much lesser extent.

Turkey and Pakistan in this context have remained, by in large, passive with no hint of confrontation

but every neighbor is theoretically consequential to another neighbor so I disagree with you there, you say what you say above based on the current balance of equations. But is one aspect dramatically changes then so will the rest.

inherently they both have equities with the current state of world affairs so they need to keep an eye out on their own perspective if suddenly equations change on their own borders, Israel would then consider confrontation with turkey or Pakistan using Iran as its new ally


You ought to note that you were able to accuse Pakistan of "treachery" in the last two weeks yet if you theoretically accept the possibility to start again, I.e. not winning , then invariably you will likely become hostile to Pakistan, and maybe China as you go fully into the Israeli and American orbit, in which case I am sure the response will be Iran must pursue its national interest, I am just theoretically speaking

didn't understand this part. All I know is that the US is not going to give Iran a deal with remotely favorable terms until it feels they have no other option left

These blockades are most affecting second and third world countries and they are counting costs, this is not a value judgment just a basic reality

By the way this is just all gaming out different scenarios and so it is just somewhat theoretical and abstract