Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[codeforfood]

It has been widely reported that the three conditions for ending hostilities and proceed towards some normalization are:

1. No nukes
2. Strait of Hormuz remains same as before
3. No support for Hezbollah etc. groups.

Anything else might have been peripheral. It is really simple in terms of goals. No confusion at all. But all three are core anathema for Iran. That is why there will not be an agreement now or later. Unless something dramatic happens.

Look at these three points and think of what was being negotiated and agreed before this conflict before Iran's leadership was decapitated. What was the agreement signed with Iran by Obama govt.
They agreed and signed. Iran even had a religious decree that stopped them from building any nukes(which essentially worked against their interests).
As for hormuz, we dug that hole for ourselves not Iran by attacking them without any provocation.
If we had the ability to provide assurance that Israel's expansionist policy can be contained and no further attacks will be carried out on Iran, I am sure there could have been a negotiated settlement for Hezbollah's role.
In all honesty we did not want to truly resolve this conflict, that's why we keep moving
goal posts.

We can continue to try to find a moral basis or some other justification for what we started. There isn't really one that exist other than the cold hard reality that we have the powers and means to do these type of things so we go start these conflicts and then find a justification later.

 

[PakFactor]

China should just STFU and refrain from issuing any statements. No one in the West takes them seriously, and that's because, despite being huge in resources, military, and economy, they chose to sit out just about every conflict (like an obedient child), whilst each and every one of their 'ally' was basically hung out to dry, one by one.

Once The West smells weakness, they pounce on you. NO MERCY. You'll have to roll up your sleeves China and get involved (physically) in messy games. Otherwise, one by one, they'll remove your buddies, isolate you, and then they'll come after you. No hiding, just delaying the inevitable. The same applies to any country, unless you have the privilege of blue eyes, and blonde hair.

In my younger days, in my ignorance, I used to think the same, but after studying and understanding Chinese philosophy and thought process, it makes absolute sense why they aren't trigger-happy. The Chinese have no problem waiting it out and allowing the U.S. to burn its goodwill and treasury; they play the long game while building their own capacity.

Remember, in the 1990s, when the PLAN was smaller, the military used civilian gray cargo ships, often welding howitzers and tanks onto them as improvised fire support platforms for landing forces. Today, it's grown leaps and bounds, and it has invested in its manpower and industrial base. While it has caught up to the United States in terms of technology, it still has ways to go.

The Chinese, first and foremost, look to maintain internal harmony amid external chaos. It knows eventually it will have to fight, and it will, but only when it's guaranteed a victory.

In Chinese calculus, they remove emotions and make decisions based on sound, calculated logic. The Muslims would have done well to practice this.

 

[Fatman17]

https://share.google/B0sdbqukfXlsY8yvM

Sticking points.
Straits of Hormuz
Iran’s uranium stocks

 

[Fatman17]

In my younger days, in my ignorance, I used to think the same, but after studying and understanding Chinese philosophy and thought process, it makes absolute sense why they aren't trigger-happy. The Chinese have no problem waiting it out and allowing the U.S. to burn its goodwill and treasury; they play the long game while building their own capacity.

Remember, in the 1990s, when the PLAN was smaller, the military used civilian gray cargo ships, often welding howitzers and tanks onto them as improvised fire support platforms for landing forces. Today, it's grown leaps and bounds, and it has invested in its manpower and industrial base. While it has caught up to the United States in terms of technology, it still has ways to go.

The Chinese, first and foremost, look to maintain internal harmony amid external chaos. It knows eventually it will have to fight, and it will, but only when it's guaranteed a victory.

In Chinese calculus, they remove emotions and make decisions based on sound, calculated logic. The Muslims would have done well to practice this.

Offtopic

 

[Mobius]

 

[Psyko70]

US is blocking strait of hormuz and Iran seems silent ?

 

[Navid09]

Iran got played a 3rd time

These two weeks were nothing more than time for Israel to move its interceptors around and for US to bring in more air defenses, equipment and troops into the region. Israel was running lone and in single digits for interceptors. The US and Israel likely have to steal NATO stocks and Asia stocks to replenish for now.

Vance came and likely delivered the same crappy deal as before: No enrichment, No HEU, limit missiles, and drop support for Hezbollah in exchange for some sanctions relief.

Qalibaf and Argachi spent alot of political capital to make themselves look like fool.

Im sure iran has also used this time to prepare, not to mention most importantly of all they have kept the strait closed, so the clock is still ticking.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Things are heading in a bad direction for Iran. Trapped in a false ceasefire, it is under a naval blockade, unable to retaliate. Furthermore, it has been unable to stop the US military from clearing mines, causing the SOH blockade to crumble and allowing Saudi and UAE tankers to openly resume exports. Always passive and incapable of launching an attack itself, Iran has no ability to reinstate the blockade, and the Iranian economy is being unilaterally destroyed. The ceasefire negotiations were clearly a ploy to achieve this goal.

 

[EugeneP]

US is blocking strait of hormuz and Iran seems silent ?

It is quickly going to turn nasty as soon as the first attack on a blockading ship happens. 10 a.m. tomorrow is war, restarted.

 

[IceCold]

Yes this a real post View attachment 192098

WTF! If this is real the Vatican needs to come out and condemn this blasphemy. Trump has lost it.

 

[Kyussis]

The collective wisdom of these f*ckers told them not to build nuclear weapons after 30 years, to sign the JCPOA in return for nothing but promises, and to get deceived by Witkoff twice in 9 months, both time ending in war.
So, yeah, there's a very high chance that my "hot take" on ceasefire maturity is superior to their "collective wisdom".

Hi,

So far---all the Iran's LR SA missile are gone---. That is what it shows.

Only one are the Majid IR SA missile batteries---.

On the offensive side---they have the LR surface to surface missiles.

Very difficult to fight a war like that.

That F-15 that was downed last week was operating between 30-50K feet. You think a Majid SHORAD can reach that altitude?

 

[Zoyou]

 

[Kyussis]

I think the iaf does and they have no problem blowing up civilian ships and trump won’t blink an eye about it and Europe will look the other way sorry that’s the truth

IOF can't even seal off Gaza 100% yet you think they can enforce a blockade on Iran in the Caspian sea?

 

[Navid09]

Hi,

So far---all the Iran's LR SA missile are gone---. That is what it shows.

Only one are the Majid IR SA missile batteries---.

On the offensive side---they have the LR surface to surface missiles.

Very difficult to fight a war like that.

I am not sure what u are talking about.

Just closing the strait, which can easily be done with iran's tools is enough to cause significant economic damage.

Yes Iran will continue getting hit, but Iran also has enough missiles and drones to continue striking israel and gulf countries for months similar to what it has been doing past few weeks.

 

[Navid09]

In other words they’re going to help Iran to make sure strait remains closed

It actually means he is threatening it block iranian ships (with chinese cargo/oil).

But this means he would be embargoing China, whether he does it is a different question, as it would force chinas hand. Maybe would make moves on taiwan?