VCheng
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Fair? There is no such thing in international geopolitics. Only children think that way.
What is more important is whether a deal is feasible and durable.
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
Fair? There is no such thing in international geopolitics. Only children think that way.
What is more important is whether a deal is feasible and durable.
Master Chief
Trusted Member
Nope, nothing celestial about it. It is based upon a historical figure.
It is the Ashoka Chakra, derived from the Pillars of Ashoka.
Indians tend to practice spasmodic anger at historical brutality in an entirely selective manner. Mughals, Nadir Shah, Bin Qasim all bad saar. But Ashoka very enlightened after Kalinga. Dharmic terror against other Dharmics is very much acceptable.
Master Chief
Trusted Member
What indications? There are none whatsoever. All indications are at the persistence of threat and blockade only. The troop build-up, as it has been hitherto, is for containment and deterrence of an Iranian pre-emptive strike. USA will wait a while to see if economic action can cause discord within Iran.
ghazi52
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz, peace efforts at an impasse
Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei rebukes US' war of aggression, challenges war justifications
Anadolu Agency/Reuters/Web Desk
May 01, 2026
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, April 27, 2026. REUTERS
A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday that Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran remained at an impasse.
Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the US Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn.
A ceasefire has been in place since April 8 but reports that US President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday.
Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive US strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Meengla
Elite Member
If he is the same Will Schvyver who became sort of famous in the early days of the Iraq War 2003, then as I recall he was a retired CIA guy / military guy who called the Americans to ruthlessly impose America's will in the Middle East for peace, including ruthless against Israel. In those days, publicly against Israel carried a huge risk in America.
PS. He is quite interesting: Recently on a You Tube video said the DEI policies has ruined American military and merit based system.
"Iran WANTS" war!
PS. He is quite interesting: Recently on a You Tube video said the DEI policies has ruined American military and merit based system.
"Iran WANTS" war!
Pakistan Space Agency
Elite Member
Blockade is just an excuse for the larger military build up.
Meengla
Elite Member
No options left but to bring death and destruction in Iran and the region except those won't deliver the results. This madness needs to stop in a give and take for long term peace and stability.
Will Schvyver's full article.
I believe there is a coalescing faction in Washington that is pushing to get out of this war without further delay.
Militarily, it is a lost cause. Yes, I understand how many people think I'm nuts for saying such a thing, but that reality is becoming more apparent to more people with each passing day.
Even so, I am inclined to conclude that the empire is into this gambit way too far to turn back now. Negotiation of a deal from their current posture is unthinkable. Iran is dictating terms.
The US blockade has been a farce so far. They have interdicted a couple ships for show. Many others have sailed on their merry way.
Fact is, the US Navy cannot execute a tactically meaningful blockade. They have, at most, 17 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Arabian Sea. They will absolutely feel compelled to retain at least a dozen of those to afford protection to the two carriers. That leaves five destroyers to enforce a blockade ranging over 3000+ miles of mostly sovereign waters (Pakistan and India) from the Iranian coast of the Gulf of Oman to the Strait of Malacca.
Good luck with that — especially if the Chinese decide to start escorting convoys with warships.
And so, back to the empire's dilemma: even if they know they can't sustain anything more than maybe another two weeks of high-intensity air strikes, they will almost certainly play that card in hopes of being able to improve their negotiating position.
Of course, many people see the headlines about "three carrier strike groups" poised to rain death and destruction on the presumptuous Iranians, and they understandably assume it is true.
They don't understand that the USS Poopy Gerry (CVN-78) is a ship in sore need of two years in the repair dock; a ship that is hiding out in the far northern reaches of the Red Sea, with three destroyers assigned to protect it until it can sneak back through the Suez Canal in the dead of night and limp back to Norfolk.
They don't understand that the US Navy has already been struggling to sustain the USS Fraidy Abe (CVN-72) as it does figure-8s in the safe deep blue waters of the Arabian Sea — no bases in which to rest, recuperate, and replenish. Nothing but the increasingly scant pantries, refrigerators, and freezers of a ship that needs to feed 5000 people three meals a day.
And now a navy that was struggling to sustain a single strike group in the Arabian Sea will be faced with sustaining TWO of them. The USS Bush League (CVN-77) has arrived on station, presumably not any closer than about 800 km from the Iranian coast.
This is a fleet whose combat-ready sustainability has an extremely short half-life.
The air force strike component in the region has not been strengthened to any significant degree during the course of this recent "ceasefire". In fact, it has been weakened considerably since its high-water mark in late February.
But a steady stream of C-17s has been delivering stuff of various kinds to the theater, presumably more air defense systems, interceptors, cruise missiles, and bombs.
The ground component remains entirely insufficient to do anything meaningful. A single Marine Expeditionary Unit on the USS Tripoli, a Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division, and several special forces units. Maybe amounts to 5000 combat effectives, but I doubt it.
Besides, I don't believe they could insert even a mere 3000 combat effectives without some fashion of disaster ensuing. I apologize for my certainty on this point, but in my considered opinion, anyone who believes the US can insert a ground force into Iran — be it 1000, 10,000 or 100,000 — is bats in the belfry crazy. It simply could not be done.
So that leaves them with an attempted reprise of the first couple weeks of this war: stand-off air and naval missile strikes. They will blow the whole wad on one last attempt to turn the tide of affairs.
But they won't disarm Iran.
And Iran will then strike back with unprecedented salvos from their substantial stockpiles.
And the state of affairs for the empire will go from bad to worse, with consequences as yet unforeseen.
Will Schvyver's full article.
I believe there is a coalescing faction in Washington that is pushing to get out of this war without further delay.
Militarily, it is a lost cause. Yes, I understand how many people think I'm nuts for saying such a thing, but that reality is becoming more apparent to more people with each passing day.
Even so, I am inclined to conclude that the empire is into this gambit way too far to turn back now. Negotiation of a deal from their current posture is unthinkable. Iran is dictating terms.
The US blockade has been a farce so far. They have interdicted a couple ships for show. Many others have sailed on their merry way.
Fact is, the US Navy cannot execute a tactically meaningful blockade. They have, at most, 17 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Arabian Sea. They will absolutely feel compelled to retain at least a dozen of those to afford protection to the two carriers. That leaves five destroyers to enforce a blockade ranging over 3000+ miles of mostly sovereign waters (Pakistan and India) from the Iranian coast of the Gulf of Oman to the Strait of Malacca.
Good luck with that — especially if the Chinese decide to start escorting convoys with warships.
And so, back to the empire's dilemma: even if they know they can't sustain anything more than maybe another two weeks of high-intensity air strikes, they will almost certainly play that card in hopes of being able to improve their negotiating position.
Of course, many people see the headlines about "three carrier strike groups" poised to rain death and destruction on the presumptuous Iranians, and they understandably assume it is true.
They don't understand that the USS Poopy Gerry (CVN-78) is a ship in sore need of two years in the repair dock; a ship that is hiding out in the far northern reaches of the Red Sea, with three destroyers assigned to protect it until it can sneak back through the Suez Canal in the dead of night and limp back to Norfolk.
They don't understand that the US Navy has already been struggling to sustain the USS Fraidy Abe (CVN-72) as it does figure-8s in the safe deep blue waters of the Arabian Sea — no bases in which to rest, recuperate, and replenish. Nothing but the increasingly scant pantries, refrigerators, and freezers of a ship that needs to feed 5000 people three meals a day.
And now a navy that was struggling to sustain a single strike group in the Arabian Sea will be faced with sustaining TWO of them. The USS Bush League (CVN-77) has arrived on station, presumably not any closer than about 800 km from the Iranian coast.
This is a fleet whose combat-ready sustainability has an extremely short half-life.
The air force strike component in the region has not been strengthened to any significant degree during the course of this recent "ceasefire". In fact, it has been weakened considerably since its high-water mark in late February.
But a steady stream of C-17s has been delivering stuff of various kinds to the theater, presumably more air defense systems, interceptors, cruise missiles, and bombs.
The ground component remains entirely insufficient to do anything meaningful. A single Marine Expeditionary Unit on the USS Tripoli, a Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division, and several special forces units. Maybe amounts to 5000 combat effectives, but I doubt it.
Besides, I don't believe they could insert even a mere 3000 combat effectives without some fashion of disaster ensuing. I apologize for my certainty on this point, but in my considered opinion, anyone who believes the US can insert a ground force into Iran — be it 1000, 10,000 or 100,000 — is bats in the belfry crazy. It simply could not be done.
So that leaves them with an attempted reprise of the first couple weeks of this war: stand-off air and naval missile strikes. They will blow the whole wad on one last attempt to turn the tide of affairs.
But they won't disarm Iran.
And Iran will then strike back with unprecedented salvos from their substantial stockpiles.
And the state of affairs for the empire will go from bad to worse, with consequences as yet unforeseen.
ghazi52
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
'Treacherous aggression'
Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.
Read: Trump says King Charles does not want Iran to have nuclear weapon
After US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran fired at US bases, infrastructure and US-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon.
Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait.
"And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbours," Gargash wrote.
Trump faces a formal US deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution.
The date looks set to pass without altering the course of the war after a senior administration official said that, for the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington.
Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.
Read: Trump says King Charles does not want Iran to have nuclear weapon
After US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran fired at US bases, infrastructure and US-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon.
Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait.
"And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbours," Gargash wrote.
Trump faces a formal US deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution.
The date looks set to pass without altering the course of the war after a senior administration official said that, for the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington.
ghazi52
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Iran says not to expect quick results from talks
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned on Thursday against expecting quick results from talks.
A senior official of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said any new US attack on Iran, even if limited, would usher in "long and painful strikes" on US regional positions, while Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media as saying: "We've seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships."
Trump repeated on Thursday that Iran would not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, and said the price of gasoline - an important concern for his Republican Party before midterm elections in November - would "drop like a rock" as soon as the war ended.
Iran says its nuclear programme is solely for civilian purposes.
Trump said on Thursday that Iran's economy was "a disaster", but analysts said that if he expects Iran to blink first in a game of economic chicken, he may be waiting a while.
The conflict has aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but it looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite the U.S. blockade that has cut off its energy exports.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned on Thursday against expecting quick results from talks.
A senior official of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said any new US attack on Iran, even if limited, would usher in "long and painful strikes" on US regional positions, while Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media as saying: "We've seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships."
Trump repeated on Thursday that Iran would not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, and said the price of gasoline - an important concern for his Republican Party before midterm elections in November - would "drop like a rock" as soon as the war ended.
Iran says its nuclear programme is solely for civilian purposes.
Trump said on Thursday that Iran's economy was "a disaster", but analysts said that if he expects Iran to blink first in a game of economic chicken, he may be waiting a while.
The conflict has aggravated Iran's dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but it looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite the U.S. blockade that has cut off its energy exports.
925boy
Elite Member
Except for the iranian revolution in 1979, NOTHING has boosted the iranian nation's confidence in itself and it's capabilities more than this clash iran just had with US and israel- i mean, nothing!
The almost miraculous performance iran had in this war, at least so far, seems like Sayyed Khamenei senior's parting gift to the iranian nation, which was mainly possible because of his wise and steadfast leadership of and belief in iran, and that credit is due to him and it must be given and acknowledged.
Iran now KNOWS US can't defeat it, which will probably put iran on a transformational path forward. Some weak, directionless neighbors of iran will likely collapse or submit to iran in the near future.
clutch
Elite Member
UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz, peace efforts at an impasse
Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei rebukes US' war of aggression, challenges war justifications
Anadolu Agency/Reuters/Web Desk
May 01, 2026
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, April 27, 2026. REUTERS
A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday that Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran remained at an impasse.
Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the US Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn.
A ceasefire has been in place since April 8 but reports that US President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday.
Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive US strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Iran should invade the little UAE. If America can take Venezuela and Greenland... israHell can take Palestine, Syria, Lebanon.... Why can't Iran take UAE.
All the Gulf countries are fake nations.
clutch
Elite Member
I hope Iran leaves the Saudis out. Be Smart. Divide and conquer. Attack UAE and the other small Gulf illegitimate nations.
Lulldapull
Trusted Member
Bro…….iran can’t do that cuz immediately it would become a Persian vs Arab war and that really needs to be avoided. We as Pakistanis need to calm all this down and make peace in that region or else our own survival is at stake.
