Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
the first stage was 'only' 39 days and we suffered a lot of damageThey couldn’t finish the job in June 2025 or March 2026. But sure they will “finish the job” this 3rd time.
Their interceptors that were falling the week of the ceasefire had manufacturing dates of 2026, meaning supply was running low.
Everytime supply runs low they call for a ceasefire. And this time America doesn’t have extra THAAD or SM-6/3 or Patriots to spare.
So war of attrition swings back to Iran’s side as the oil crisis continues to get worse by each passing week.
Iran knows it only has to survive till August and by then the damage to world supply will immense as all the excess supply that is being burned thru right now will run out.
Can Israel “finish” the job in 3 months? No it cannot.
hopefully the 2 month ceasefire was used wisely and our leaders are in safe places and we have thousands of missiles ready for launch at pre prepared locations
my base case isn't as optimistic as yours, but your scenario is plausible. in any case, we are in war so no time for sulking and complaints




