The Israeli interpretation of the MOU has a different spin and I think they are in a major coping mode. I believe there will be a lot of give and take once the MOU is signed but eventually Iran is going to come out ahead.
As reports swirl about the contents of the Memorandum of Understanding that the US and Iran are on the verge of signing, a senior official from US President Donald Trump’s administration holds a phone briefing with reporters to make the case for the deal and answer questions.
The senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, says the agreement accomplishes five things for the US.
“First, it reopens the straits and lifts the (US) blockade (of Iranian ports),” the official says.
“Number two, it leads to the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program,” the US official continues, hinting that the MOU itself does not force Iran to dismantle the program; rather it potentially “leads” to that result. This is because the deal merely extends the ceasefire between the sides by 60 days during which they will hold technical discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
“Number three, it leads to the United States getting the enriched material. We provide in the agreement that this material would be destroyed on site, and then taken out of the country,” he says, appearing to stop short of saying that the MOU requires Iran to give up its stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium up front. This issue, too, is expected to be subject to the subsequent nuclear talks during the ceasefire extension.
“Number four, it guarantees a long-term peace in the region, and that would mean that the Iranians are no longer funding violence in the region, but it also means that everyone is respecting the territorial sovereignty of Iran,” the US official says. This issue also is reportedly more vague in the MOU itself and would likely be up for discussion during the subsequent negotiations with the US, but Iran has shown no indication that it will be ceasing support for proxies.
“Finally, [this deal] has an inspection regime that makes sure that this is a long-term commitment and that it’s a long-term enforceable,” the US official says, again appearing to refer to a concession that the US is only hoping to secure as part of a subsequent agreement with Iran. The MOU itself is not expected to immediately establish an inspection system of Iran’s activity.
“What Iran gets out of the agreement is that if they comply, they’re going to be relieved of a lot of the economic pressures that they’ve been under for many, many years,” the senior US official says. “They do get reintegrated into the world economy, they’re going to be rewarded for acting like a normal country, rather than the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”
“The Iranians don’t get anything upon the signing of the MOU or upon the negotiation itself… If they turn over the nuclear material as promised, they’ll get something. If they dismantle their nuclear programs or their nuclear facilities, they’ll get something else. If they really commit to regional peace and stability, they’ll get additional things on top of that.
He goes on to caution reporters against taking descriptions of the deal’s terms from Iranian state media, arguing that they are trying to sell the deal to their respective public and not necessarily doing so in a manner that is truthful, while insisting that his presentation of the agreement is different.
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