Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

abgoosht said:
If sanctions are lifted and Iran can trade with the world, then she is a winner. If US start a war again the prices will rise again when the strait is closed.
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Sure, big if though.

The prices won't rise as much as before this time, as all countries that matter to the US are filling their strategic reserves with cheap oil for months and won't be caught surprised.
 
ShapurII said:
Oil prices are almost back to pre-war numbers and are still falling further.

WTI crude: $69.5
Brent crude: $72.68

People who said that oil prices would remain high for months or years after the war seem to have been wrong. :) This isn't good for Iran.
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But if world give up of the Hormuz oil's quantity strategic weight, that will reduce its importance, but gcc Arabian monarchs would be Persian satraps, without alternative even for food supplies routes... All point of gcc and racketeering from Americans was to avoid being dependent on Iranian National Interest, which is of course different than Arabian Interest...

BTW, next crucial phase of the geo-strategic match could be a water independence, and all of the countries there are vulnerable in that field...

That should be next Iranian national course...
 
Meengla said:
Yesterday saw a sensible anti war Israeli analyst Daniel Levy saying that Israel tried to bring India to the Middle East through IMEC (India Middle East Europe Corridor) via the UAE but instead this war on Iran has brought Pakistan into the Middle East.
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Sounds absolutely right.

Even a cursory glance at Delhi's behaviour prior to the Ramadan war would make it clear that their preference was a new regime in Tehran, Pahlavist in nature (crucially, not the historically Pakistan-friendly Elder Shah, but the rabidly pro-Israeli Junior Shah!). This would have enabled strategic encirclement of Pakistan AND all sorts of Indo-Iran-Gulf transit routes.

The endurance of the Islamic Republic of Iran has harmed Hindustan substantially. I even think Iranians have begun to realise that they are fully expendable in the eyes of hindutva planners.
 
vmro said:
But if world give up of the Hormuz oil's quantity strategic weight, that will reduce its importance, but gcc Arabian monarchs would be Persian satraps, without alternative even for food supplies routes... All point of gcc and racketeering from Americans was to avoid being dependent on Iranian National Interest, which is of course different than Arabian Interest...

BTW, next crucial phase of the geo-strategic match could be a water independence, and all of the countries there are vulnerable in that field...

That should be next Iranian national course...
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Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE will not be affected by the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain will be hit hard. Kuwait and Bahrain are already dependent on Saudi Arabia for nearly everything. So, it doesn't change much for them.

I think Qatar is going to be hit the hardest, becoming fully independent on other countries and having a history of problems with the Saudis in recent years, I think that's why they're panicking so much and it's why they are so eager for Iran and the US to sign the deal. They're also very vocal about the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.

So, Qatar will be the biggest loser of all this. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, not so much. They already have sea ports that enable them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
 
Master Chief said:
(crucially, not the historically Pakistan-friendly Elder Shah, but the rabidly pro-Israeli Junior Shah!).
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To his credit, the previous shah of Iran (father of this joker in exile) was totally Pro-Pakistan. Its evident from the fact that he completely supported Pakistan's stance on Kashmir and Iran showed complete support to Pakistan in India-Pakistan wars of 1965 & 71. Iran and Pakistan also used to closely cooperate on Baluch insurgents.

Iran provided oil, supplies and even nursing staff during the 2 earlier wars. At the same time Shah was not close to india and kept his distance. He saw India as part of Soviet block when Shah himself was part of US block. Pakistan was also completely in US block during that time. In other words, both countries were anti-communist.
 
ShapurII said:
Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE will not be affected by the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain will be hit hard. Kuwait and Bahrain are already dependent on Saudi Arabia for nearly everything. So, it doesn't change much for them.

I think Qatar is going to be hit the hardest, becoming fully independent on other countries and having a history of problems with the Saudis in recent years, I think that's why they're panicking so much and it's why they are so eager for Iran and the US to sign the deal. They're also very vocal about the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.

So, Qatar will be the biggest loser of all this. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, not so much. They already have sea ports that enable them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
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KSA should be looking to merge Qatar and Bahrain into it.

House of Saud has tried in 19th/20th century to unify the arabian penisula but was stopped by British intervention. More tiny countries means more easily divide and conquer and control the region.
 
ShapurII said:
Oil prices are almost back to pre-war numbers and are still falling further.

WTI crude: $69.5
Brent crude: $72.68

People who said that oil prices would remain high for months or years after the war seem to have been wrong. :) This isn't good for Iran.
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This is very good for Iran. It shows the immediate benefits of not fighting the country and resolving all disputes via talks and compromise. The average person plus the elites are very happy with the ceasefire and don't want any more conflict. Only Israelis and UAE are butthurt about recent events.

With the removal of sanctions Iran can export energy to its hearts content.
 
Persian Gulf said:
Your question is not clear because the tankers carry the oil and were blocked by the U.S. naval blockade
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my question is the oil sale after the deal when american lifted the blockade or is it just normal sale during blockade bypassing bloackde in some way or the other
 
maxpane said:
my question is the oil sale after the deal when american lifted the blockade or is it just normal sale during blockade bypassing bloackde in some way or the other
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The blockade has been lifted on both sides. It's why the price of oil has declined to prewar levels because tanker traffic is now moving and steadily increasing.

There isn't going to be any more war, regardless of the 60 day timer. There will continue to be tension and disputes but we are over the war stage.
 
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