Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[RescueRanger]

This is not a good sign if I am being totally honest:

 

[Nawnaw1]

Renewed fuel bridge now active in CENTCOM AOR:
View attachment 205195

Please note this comment by NATO:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has already defended the new wave of US strikes as "absolutely necessary,". This is a clear indication for the first time of strong Western alliance alignment.

What we may expect going forward is a sustained US military footprint in the region as CENTCOM works to permanently degrade Iran’s coastal denial capabilities and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Degrade it how? By occupying Iran fully? Iran just needs to disrupt, the US needs to fully 'clear' the strait. Any person with any sense of military subjects knows this is fully impossible. Hence threats threats and more threats. The US can't do shit in the strait, except try to regime change Iran. From the air? Lol. Sure. Goodbye to the pg arab states then. There won't be anything left to export from the strait.

Childish, the US tried, its plans died.

 

[Musings]

Stop the personal attacks and derailing - not necessary for such a serious thread.......

 

[Yasser76]

This is not a good sign if I am being totally honest:
View attachment 205199

How does one diffrentiate between routine movements and ones related to an increase in activity?

 

[Salza]

Iran does dictate

Iran dictates sh*t and is a confused state. All your proxies one by one have been destroyed by Israel in the last 10 years or so. Israel kills your scientists, commanders at will and inside Iran while you can't do a jack about it. US and Israel now can slap you whenever they want. Pretty embarrassing for Iranians when US/Israel hits you in your own mainland. Brace yourself for a naval blockade again.

 

[Pakistan First]

Over confidence is a bad bitch.

Iran should know it didn't beat US technologically. Its just that US was unwilling to spend a massive bill on this war when it needs to focus on China. US can literally finish the job, if it brings it entire military might.

World was with Iran when it was defending itself. Even NATO countries opposed the war like Spain, italy etc and didn't let US use their bases. But Iran will quickly lose all the support by hitting commercial ships.

Recent strikes on commercial shipping is mistake by Iran. Rest of world would practically join against a rogue nation which hits commercial shipping lanes. You just can't hit commercial ships just because they choose their own route. Plus these strikes automatically take the narrative towards US stance and rest of the world hates to see oil prices going high because Iran struck ships when supposedly MoU was signed and strait was open. Owning an international water way is a sick idea. Iran used it during the war and its understandable. But you can't own it and block it post-war. Nobody would accept it.

I think Pakistan should back off from mediation now. No time for this BS. Let US and Iran settle this militarily.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

 

[Professor Jiang]

Over confidence is a bad bitch.

Iran should know it didn't beat US technologically. Its just that US was unwilling to spend a massive bill on this war when it needs to focus on China. US can literally finish the job, if it brings it entire military might.

Everything that Iran has done so far has been built from a strategy which assumes Iran is technologically inferior to the United States. This includes taking functional control of the Strait. Do you imagine that the Iranians don't understand that the US has more money than them?

 

[Meengla]

Unsure how much of this new wave of attacks is posturing and getting an upperhand in the negotiations, we are too far down the line and both sides have too much to lose for going back to full scale war.
I think take out all the social media noise/click baits, this will be just like the last few attacks and over soon

Good post.
That's how I see the status and path forward. There is too much at stake for Iran and America and it will take time to find mutually acceptable solution. I don't call any side 'victors' or 'losers' at this point except Israel certainly has faced a strategic loss and we will see that unfolding.

 

[LeonBlack08]

 

[VCheng]

Unsure how much of this new wave of attacks is posturing and getting an upperhand in the negotiations, we are too far down the line and both sides have too much to lose for going back to full scale war.

As I said above, despite this recent outbreak of open hostilities, we all should give negotiations a chance to proceed to a final settlement.

Things may work out still.

 

[Flotilla]

Renewed fuel bridge now active in CENTCOM AOR:
View attachment 205195

Please note this comment by NATO:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has already defended the new wave of US strikes as "absolutely necessary,". This is a clear indication for the first time of strong Western alliance alignment.

What we may expect going forward is a sustained US military footprint in the region as CENTCOM works to permanently degrade Iran’s coastal denial capabilities and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Love looooong routes of countless hours of flights in 50 years old frames... what can be go bad???.

 

[VCheng]

Again, when national pride is at stake, who are we to pass judgement on Iran. They are a proud people with culture, history and tradition. This is not their first rodeo; there are other factors at play here that we yet don't fully understand. I understand the gist of your argument, and it has merit but remember that Iran is the aggrieved party here because the conflict was thrust upon them without any due cause or egregious action.

That said, this recent incident unless controlled could become a spark that leads to further conflagration.

Of course Iran has every right to fight the war as best as it can. But so will the other side, equally. That is just how it goes. War is war.

Just as I previously said to wait and see, it is wise to wait for the results of the negotiations, despite the recent hostilities.

 

[Flotilla]

Iran dictate sh*t and is a confused state. All your proxies one by one have been destroyed by Israel in the last 10 years or so. Israel kills your scientists, commanders at will and inside Iran while you can't do a jack about it. US and Israel now can slap you whenever they want. Pretty embarrassing for Iranians when US/Israel hits you in your own mainland. Brace yourself for a naval blockade again.

We see.
Hundreds of fighters entering and getting out of the country.
It is like Pearl Harbour film but without Kate Beckinsale.

 

[RescueRanger]

How does one diffrentiate between routine movements and ones related to an increase in activity?

Ideally the first thing you want to see if there are any EAMs: Emergency Action Messages that have been transmitted when you see large fleet movements. In this case we have one recorded today at 0500 hrs Zulu - click on link to play recording.

404 File Not Found - Jumpshare

The file you are looking for does not exist.

jumpshare.com

Secondly look for Callsigns, for instance:

We know that at least x3 refuelers are operating with the Callsign CLEAN.



By referencing the callsign we can ascertain if these are Coronets or movements. Corenets are basically tractor movements of refuelers such as the KC3R helping bombers and fighters fly long distances:

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/115966/coronet-mission-helps-fighters-cross-atlantic-other-long-distances/

Now we can delve a little deeper we look at is the movement - is the movement preceding any major developments or public statements from officials. In this case they are.

Then we look at any available ACARS messages for the aircraft. For instance:

For instance the ACRAS for the KC135 Callsign Clean is currently showing it is operating on the 3400-3500 MHz frequency. This is standard SINCGARS frequency for US military and NATO militaries - unlike civil radio, this is a frequency hopping channel that hops 2,320 channels with 25 kHz spacing across the lower VHF band. This helps with COMSEC (communications security) and TRANSEC (transmission security) protocols.

And whilst you can tune into this frequency using SDR - due to its AES-256 encryption, all you will get is white noise.


I hope this helps explain things a little better.