Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Flotilla]

To
To his minor credit, Trump has already told Tel Aviv to F off. They wanted the war to resume and escalate it to completely cripple Iranian infrastructure and industry, consequences be damned. Trump has rejected that repeatedly since the initial April ceasefire. The Israelis didn't want that ceasefire either.

Most Americans do realize how badly Netanyahu tricked them into this war. It is part of the reason for the pushback against AIPAC.

I don't think getting out of this is that difficult. Trump is ready but he is utterly un-trustworthy. There is a need for a guarantor for any deal with Mr Trump but who can be that guarantor ?

Perhaps the United Nations Security Council ?

In addition to high inflation there is a growing problem inside US.

Their fiscal deficit is highest 1,8 trillion dollar.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/

Any military action will increase it.

Even if he manages to contain the problem by avoiding a confrontation. What might happen if fuel prices keep rising and the cost of living goes up?

It is understandable that families and businesses would cut back on spending, leading to the dreaded stagflation. What is beyond doubt is that an agreement is impossible.

That man is capable of spitting right in the faces of the British and the Danes—who are, or were, his closest allies in Europe. You cannot sign anything with a compulsive liar.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

Nominal GDP is just official market exchange rate GDP.

It is calculated by dividing GDP in rials by the official market exchange rate.

What do you expect when Iran is cut off from the international trade and is under sanctions and 1$=2mln rials.

But real capacity of the economy is shown by GDP PPP which in 2025 was 1,9trln$.

In reality Iran's GDP PPP is larger than 1,9trln$ by 35% due to presence of huge shadow economy.

So real Iran's GDP PPP in 2025 was 1,9trln*1,35=2,5trln dollars and GDP PPP per capita with shadow economy = 26.000-27.000 PPP dollars per capita.

Iran has huge shadow economy due to:
1) low quality statistics from the official Statistical Center of Iran
2) tax evasion
3) unofficial labor

While shadow economy makes Iran's economy larger, government collects taxes only from the official part of the economy.

Same applies to military spendings: officially Iran spends 2,5% of GDP on military.

But this is only tip of the iceberg:
1) IRGC owned Khatam al Anbiya corporation finances additional defense spendings from its profits.
2) IRGC has out of the budget oil quota when they get oil, sell it abroad and use the oil money to finance additional defense spendings
3) IRGC participates in smuggling operations and use the earned money to finance additional defense spendings.

So in total Iran's defense spendings can be around 4%-4,8% of GDP according to some sources.

So with official GDP PPP of 1,9trln and 4% defense budget, Iran spends 76bln PPP dollars on defense and if we take into account specific Military PPP of Peter Robertson who multiplies PPP defense budgets of countries like Iran by a coefficient of around 1,3, then Iran's defense spendings in 2025 were equivalent to 76bln*1,3=100bln$ .

So US spent 900bln$ on defense, while Iran spent 100bln$ equivalent.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/debating-defence-budgets-why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters

No one seriously thinks Iran has a $2T economy. Come on now. Be serious. 40%+ of the country is in poverty and runaway inflation has been occurring for years.

If you are going to make such claims at least be objective and look at reality.

Also $100B on the militiary even in PPP terms is also absurd since Iran purchases a lot of its raw materials and missile industrial equipment and components from China and to a lesser extent Russia and some of its weapon systems (like Shaheed) use western off the shelf parts which all require hard currency not worthless rial.

Simply looking at the lack of proper domestic air defense systems, radars, manpads, proper anti naval weapon systems, and how fast they ran thru their supply of missiles and drones paints a clear picture that your $100B PPP calculation is an on paper and not in reality calculation.

If Iran truly was spending “$100B parity equivalent” on the military they wouldn’t have been firing 10-12 missiles a day at Israel and their stockpile these years would have been north of 10,000 missiles.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

Most of the farmers are extremely upset at him right now

They will still vote Republican next round because they think Democrats support Trans people, are socialists, and hate God.

People fundamentally misunderstand Republican voters just like they misunderstand “Israelis” that are upset with Bibi.

At the end of the day these ultra conservatives will continue to vote Republican every chance they get.

 

[retaxis]

So Trump is back to the strategy of the people overthrowing the government again. His plan is to make the people suffer as much as possible through the sanctions. This is a long game that can last years and trump doesn't have that much time left.

At the end of the day its the iranian people who suffer the most so the irgc better have some tricks up its sleeves because soldiers won't fight for free and insurgents in Kurdish, baloch, azeri etc won't stay down if they sense weakness.

 

[Flotilla]

US has still some wildcards...

 

[Immortals]

 

[KAL-EL]

They will still vote Republican next round because they think Democrats support Trans people, are socialists, and hate God.

People fundamentally misunderstand Republican voters just like they misunderstand “Israelis” that are upset with Bibi.

At the end of the day these ultra conservatives will continue to vote Republican every chance they get.

Well, no one can accuse them of voting in their interests

 

[Immortals]

So Trump is back to the strategy of the people overthrowing the government again. His plan is to make the people suffer as much as possible through the sanctions. This is a long game that can last years and trump doesn't have that much time left.

At the end of the day its the iranian people who suffer the most so the irgc better have some tricks up its sleeves because soldiers won't fight for free and insurgents in Kurdish, baloch, azeri etc won't stay down if they sense weakness.

It’s the Assad playbook. Starve, siege the population after a brutal military campaign and wait for the cracks to appear in the leadership until someone decides to be the Jew-lani or Delcy Rodriguez

People didn’t think Assad would fall after he survived ISIS and the Al-Queda and in a matter of days his military and officials backstabbed him and gave up because the economy was so bad that even soldiers weren’t being paid on time or a respectable compensation for risking their life.

 

[Immortals]

Brent Oil is now down to $88-89 a barrel after trading at $94 last week. Seems Iran cannot or will not pressure Trump via oil prices at least not in the short term.



Seems like Iran is giving up control of the strait. Before Iran wanted full control of all ships entering and now it’s accepting some temporary middle lane that already existed prior to the war.

 

[retaxis]

It’s the Assad playbook. Starve, siege the population after a brutal military campaign and wait for the cracks to appear in the leadership until someone decides to be the Jew-lani or Delcy Rodriguez

People didn’t think Assad would fall after he survived ISIS and the Al-Queda and in a matter of days his military and officials backstabbed him and gave up because the economy was so bad that even soldiers weren’t being paid on time or a respectable compensation for risking their life.

That's the playbook and I can definitely see a lot of Iranians getting bribed to betray the irgc when the going gets tough with the sanctions. Thing is, this may take 10 years so america is once again in a long term war that makes Iranians suffer and military industrial complex very happy.

 

[Abdul q]

Postman has reached iran again?

 

[Immortals]

That's the playbook and I can definitely see a lot of Iranians getting bribed to betray the irgc when the going gets tough with the sanctions. Thing is, this may take 10 years so america is once again in a long term war that makes Iranians suffer and military industrial complex very happy.

You over estimate how much hardship Iranians will take. This isn't the religious post revolution Iran that was able to stomach Saddam using chemical weapons and bombing cities with SCUDs. The typical Iranian has been pissed off for last 15 years and is well past their breaking point. That’s why you had Gas riots, Mahsa Amini riots, and the January riots all in a span of a several years when before a bad riot was a once every 10-15 year event!

There are people in Iran who have not eaten red meat in MONTHS or YEARS because it’s too expensive. And yet delusional people on here saying Iran has a $2 TRILLION dollar economy (LOL!)

This board has been delusional going back to the old PDF days as well. They never wanted to admit reality on the ground. People were telling me Iran was going to be sinking US ships with its midget subs. Meanwhile Iran cannot even sink an oil tanker right now.

It was clear how they handled Syria File and Lebanon File that Iran and HZ got lucky in 2006 against Israel. Israel spent the next 20 years learning and improving and Iran and HZ spent the next 20 years doing absolutely nothing but the same retarded tactics from the 2000s.

US didn’t attack Iran back then only because the world was much more sensitive to oil prices than today. Iran lost its great leverage by waiting so long to fight an existential war.

Meanwhile, not a single person on here can tell you how Iran can become a prosperous country while still being under sanctions and a pariah in the world economy.

As long as Iran is not prosperous, the riots will continue and eventually one of them will become so bad it will fracture the government and lead to collapse of the system just like Soviet Union and Syria’s Baathist Party collapsed.

 

[Immortals]