Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Shags202]

Curious is this was around the time that trump decided to attack Iranian oil tankers for supposedly not hitting. Any American vessels @Immortals honestly can’t remember when that was but wasn’t that long ago

 

[Lulldapull]

…….must have been pretty damn close

More than likely, half these guys will commit suicide now from the traumatic brain injury.

If you look into the statistics.....the ones who commit suicide are those who were in close proximity to a drone/ IED/ FPV blast.

The VA never bought into this theory since Vietnam era sayin yous gotta be a sissy/ pusssy to fake illness to get them veterans benefits.

Problem is traumatic brain injury is real.

 

[Immortals]

Sounds more like Marines on guard duty on a GCC tanker.

I’m pretty sure they are putting anti drone units and even anti drone machines on these tankers.

They fitted the tankers to basically have some defense capability against the cheap Iranian drones. And since it’s the same tankers running from strait to the STS point in the Gulf of Oman and back, it’s doable. If you have 20-30 ships that are responsible for bringing oil out to the other tankers waiting then it could work as we have seen.

Force Iran to use more cruise missiles and more drones. Iran needs to switch to jet power drones like the Russians did.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[Persian Gulf]

What does that even mean? How do air defence operators die during an internal ‘security operation’?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Brent crude back to $108 after Pezeshkian’s failed UN gambit

US bond yields (cost of debt) at 20 year highs

Diesel prices continue to reach all time high levels across the west, increasing inflation expectations and bond yields

 

[BananaRepublic]

The Revolutionary Guard and the hardliners want to use the Strait of Hormuz to the very end, and their logic is crystal clear.

If Iran has the capability to block a massive portion of Gulf oil from reaching the world, then use that capability to its fullest. Close Hormuz, pull 15 or 20 million barrels a day out of the market, drive oil prices to levels the global economy can't sustain, and let the resulting surge in fuel prices, inflation, and market chaos pressure the United States—instead of Iran bearing the full cost of the war alone.

At that point, Trump would face two choices. Either plunge into a full-scale war to try to force Hormuz open, or offer Iran a far better deal than he was prepared to give before the war.

As for the reformers, led by Masoud Pezeshkian's government, they don't want to reach that stage. They want to use Hormuz to pressure Washington, yes, but they don't want to choke off all Gulf exports. They want high oil prices, they want pressure on Trump, and at the same time, they want negotiations to continue on sanctions, frozen Iranian funds, Iranian oil sales, and the American blockade.

In other words, they want to play the card, but not to the bitter end—so as not to force Trump into making a choice.

And the reason isn't just fear that Trump might choose war. There's also an internal political struggle in Iran.

Imagine the Revolutionary Guard fully closes the Strait of Hormuz: 15 or 20 million barrels a day vanish from the market, oil prices skyrocket to levels the global economy can't handle, fuel prices soar inside the United States, and political and economic pressure mounts on Trump—until he's finally forced to make major concessions to Iran.

What would the Revolutionary Guard say to the reformers afterward?

They'd tell them: You've negotiated with the United States for years, while we closed Hormuz for just a few months and got by force what you couldn't achieve through all your talks.

And that's the problem.

Any major deal Iran secures after a full Hormuz closure wouldn't be credited politically to the reformers—it would become the strongest ammunition the Revolutionary Guard uses against them. Force compelled the concessions, not negotiation.

That's why Pezeshkian's government doesn't want to burn the Hormuz card to the very end. It allows a portion of the oil to pass through understandings and deals with Gulf states, tightens scrutiny on other ships, and keeps shipping traffic itself as part of the bargaining with Washington. Every tanker that gets through means oil reaching the market, and every million barrels that reach the market means less pressure on prices and more room for the United States to weather the ongoing crisis.

And that's why oil prices are at these levels so far.

The problem isn't that Iran tried to close Hormuz and failed. When it tightened the closure, flows did drop—from over 20 million barrels a day to under 5 million. The problem is that Iran didn't sustain that level of strictness with Hormuz, and millions of barrels started flowing out of the Gulf via Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

There's a vast difference between 15 or 20 million barrels disappearing from the market daily and allowing several million to slip out.

That's why we haven't seen the real explosion in oil prices yet.

Not because the Strait of Hormuz has lost its importance, and not because the United States forced it open by might—but because Iran's strongest economic card is being played at about half strength.

The Revolutionary Guard wants to use it to the hilt and raise the cost of war to a level that forces the United States to back down. As for the reformers, they want to keep the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure and negotiation tool, because using it to the end might deliver a victory for Iran—but at the same time, it would be a political win for the Revolutionary Guard's theory over their own.

Via Cosmotrade

Bro, an excellent summary.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Brent crude back to $108 after Pezeshkian’s failed UN gambit

US bond yields (cost of debt) at 20 year highs

Diesel prices continue to reach all time high levels across the west, increasing inflation expectations and bond yields

Interest rates will have to be jacked up hitting U.K. and US consumers even harder.

Given the anger in U.K. and US regarding the cost of living - there’s going to be a revolution in my backyard before there’s a revolution in Tehran.

Winter fuel bills may be the last straw.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Iran is "asking for everything up front," US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said Sunday, explaining why US President Trump rejected Tehran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Waltz told NBC and CNN that Iran sought billions in frozen assets, sanctions relief on its oil, and an end to the US naval blockade before agreeing to talks. "More importantly," he said, it wanted an end to UN snapback sanctions "that have been in place for many years." He called the plan "a pretty cynical attempt to put something on the table that they knew was unacceptable."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi countered on NBC that the conditions "are not new" and mirror June's memorandum of understanding, which collapsed amid renewed fighting. "I'm surprised that the ambassador is talking about our seven-day plan as if he hasn't read it," he said.

Asking for everything upfront is a smart move.

That was the flaw with the “MoU”.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Yes, because Saudi is a Zio state.

 

[BananaRepublic]

And he acts like he is the victim as always

This is anchored into their DNA

“Victimised” by everyone from the Pharaohs, Romans to the modern Europeans.

Separated by thousands of years.

When you have a problem with everyone maybe you are the problem?