During these critical hours, instead of media hype, let us observe the enemy's behavior and operational indicators. Decisions regarding Iran have become the top priority for the U.S. government following the elections, and military signs indicate a fundamental escalation in alert levels.
**The Election and the Iran File**
Part of the political cost of the Republicans' loss is being attributed to the conflict with Iran and its repercussions. If one of Iran's and the Resistance's goals was to diminish Trump's political power and penalize him, part of that is on the verge of fruition. However, what is certain is this: the decision regarding Iran has been made, or is currently being made; the question today is not "Is there a decision?" but rather "How will it be implemented?"
**Two Decisive Questions for the Enemy**
1. What is the objective of this new war, and what will be achieved differently compared to the previous two wars?
2. Will the initial strike be successful? An assassination, a strike on facilities, or changing the status of the Strait of Hormuz? Without relative tactical certainty, the logic of a "Third War" is flawed. This atmosphere is not permanent and is in a state of flux.
**The Military Scene**
The signs are serious. Trump is angry and frustrated, and he lacks a viable option regarding Iran. Disunity is evident within his team; Vance seeks negotiation to turn the threat into a political opportunity, but the gap between the two sides is immense. Netanyahu is also providing pressure and provocative intelligence; it is the same dirty game played before previous wars. The probability of a joint decision by Trump and Netanyahu is assessed as medium-to-high.
**Qeshm: The Correct Narrative**
Iran initially launched an effective strike against two American F-18 fighters, apparently hitting one of them. The U.S. then bombed the air defense launch point but failed. Therefore, the story is not "U.S. attack and our response"; we conducted an operation, and they attempted to respond. The claim of "suppressing air defenses" is an exaggeration. What occurred was a powerful strategic signal: Iran's air defense has undergone a fundamental evolution.
**Koh Kalang and the Illusion of a "Clean Strike"**
There are signs that the enemy is preparing to strike Koh Kalang, and Trump believes the CENTCOM plan will be "fast and clean." However, there will be no "clean and fast" strike; every strike, before reaching its target, will encounter unexpected surprises from the Iranian side. The deployment of air defenses in the UAE, Kuwait, and Israel indicates America's massive investment in defensive layers, but it is a fundamental error; we have converted the lessons of the previous two wars into new weaponry, while they continue to bring the same failed defense systems.
**Summary**
1. The hours are critical, and the possibility of conflict exists at any moment.
2. The timing may take several weeks.
3. The enemy has a plan, ranging from precision strikes to large-scale conflict. However, they are incapable of implementing what they envision; we know their plan, and they will encounter surprises at the onset of war.
4. The enemy still cannot determine the utility of the next war; rendering it futile in the enemy's mind is our most important task.
Do not rely on enemy media narratives or fake news designed to incite fear. Some narratives, such as the reopening of shelters in the northern settlements of the Zionist regime, do not pertain to today. We will fight well, surprise the enemy, and dismantle their war plans. During these critical hours, let us bind our composure with readiness.
