Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

I would be cautious and double what was viewed as the likely success rate. So 45ish strikes were seen/recorded I would say around 90 got through. That makes it 50/50 which are not bad odds.

The main challenge is hitting accurately with the needed destructive power to do the desired damage. Might need more advance BMs for those. I would hope they are taking this time to build up stocks, back up production facilities and preparing defensively.

we know the main targets and these line up with the videos we saw. I am fairly confident in the 40-45 / 180 estimate ( = 25%).

this was a big improvement over the first strike (9-10 impacts / 120 ballistic missiles = c. 8%).

the success rate should increase with each strike given depletion of ABM inventories. 10-25% success rate in the first two strikes is acceptable, especially given the trajectory of increased success. the issue was accuracy (500m+ CEP) and lack of destructive impact, not defeating the ABM shield.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[StrategicBear]

that is the most commonly accepted number from TP2, yes

180 missiles fired
40-45 impacts observed (videos + satellite imagery)

Then fire 1,500.
Problem solved.

 

[Mehdipersian]

Soon everyone will see the remorse of the Jewish terrorists.

 

[UKBengali]

Then fire 1,500.
Problem solved.

Does not work like out.

After 300-400 missiles are fired Zio-US would be totally out of interceptor missiles and all the rest would go through.

So with 1500, you are likely to get 1200 going through and causing "catastrophic" damage if armed with heavy warheads and aimed at targets like factories, power/water stations etc.

 

[Persian Gulf]

reality 90% of the missiles went through with ease

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nobody should listen to "Persian gulf".

this is the video of Nevatim showing 30-35 impacts

you have no idea what you are talking about

 

[Persian Gulf]

Then fire 1,500.
Problem solved.

it's not easy to fuel and launch 1,500 ballistic missiles simultaneously

even 180 missiles at once was a pretty impressive feat of logistics

 

[Alter_Ego]

Iranian missiles are more than good enough to destroy zionist targets, just needs more blast yield

 

[jauk]

that is the most commonly accepted number from TP2, yes

180 missiles fired
40-45 impacts observed (videos + satellite imagery)

Where is the source for these sweeping comments. All this data is based on Zionist anti-Iranian propaganda. @Waz @Musings

 

[jauk]

reality 90% of the missiles went through with ease

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nobody should listen to "Persian gulf".

Correct. And this is the stuff that is leaked by mistake. The other stuff is propaganda lapped up and regurgitated here.

At the end, the proof is in the pudding. After TP2 Zionia did nothing meaningful.

 

[Waz]

Where is the source for these sweeping comments. All this data is based on Zionist anti-Iranian propaganda. @Waz @Musings

I do agree it seems rather high. Do we have a source for it? Or is the magical zion wand from Harry Potter?

 

[Persian Gulf]

After TP2 Zionia did nothing meaningful.

killing 5 iranians is 'nothing meaningful' apparently

 

[jauk]

I do agree it seems rather high. Do we have a source for it? Or is the magical zion wand from Harry Potter?

@Waz @Musings Note, this same exact post has been deleted and resulted in being 'banned' for many months now.

 

[jauk]

killing 5 iranians is 'nothing meaningful' apparently

disgusting comment

@Waz @Musings Note how this 'moderator' behaves.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I do agree it seems rather high. Do we have a source for it? Or is the magical zion wand from Harry Potter?

it's all well documented and widely accepted in professional circles that don't rely on unsourced propaganda claims

c. 30-35 impacts at Nevatim (corroborated by the videos from the day where we count c. 30 impacts):

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at least 8 impacts seen at Tel Nof air base:

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2 other missiles landed in Tel Aviv, one was 500m from Mossad HQ and one hit side of a road:

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these are all the missile impacts we have any form of visual evidence of. around 40 in total. not to say that more impacts are impossible but these line up with Iranian statements of their targets and nothing else was caught on video or revealed in satellite imagery.

source of 180 ballistic missiles being fired in total:

Iran launches more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel

Israel warns of consequences for the attack, which Iran says was retaliation for attacks on its allies.

www.bbc.co.uk

Iran’s Missile Attack is a Challenge Israel Can’t Ignore

Iran will be hoping that it has reinforced its credibility in the Middle East with its attack on Israel, but it is more likely to prompt a damaging Israeli response.

www.rusi.org

now ask those who disagree to substantiate their claims that there were more impacts. they will not be able to (and I doubt they will even try, they just like to sling mud at others).