Khorasan Black Flags
Trusted Member
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Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
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StrategicBear
Registered Member
Yemen's Houthis now are playing a huge role... Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire to end soon...
What is the strategic situation for Iran to launch TP3? Even if Trump becomes President, the US military power doesn't suddenly increase overnight, so if TP3 is to be launched, the timing is before Trump's inauguration.
A big war will hurt Israel more, as they still haven't fully wiped out Hezbollah and the Houthis and are about to challenge Iran 1vs3. Sure, the US will make it 2vs3, but the US can't pour all resources into the Iran war, because they have to keep forces against Russia and China, so I think Iran can win this war if they are willing to take casualties for it.
The problem is Gulf countries and Saudi which have substantial air forces and can coordinate with USAF. Iran can win easily if it can make Arab Sunnis side with it, but how?
What is the strategic situation for Iran to launch TP3? Even if Trump becomes President, the US military power doesn't suddenly increase overnight, so if TP3 is to be launched, the timing is before Trump's inauguration.
A big war will hurt Israel more, as they still haven't fully wiped out Hezbollah and the Houthis and are about to challenge Iran 1vs3. Sure, the US will make it 2vs3, but the US can't pour all resources into the Iran war, because they have to keep forces against Russia and China, so I think Iran can win this war if they are willing to take casualties for it.
The problem is Gulf countries and Saudi which have substantial air forces and can coordinate with USAF. Iran can win easily if it can make Arab Sunnis side with it, but how?
Liquidator
Trusted Member
With respect to most Arab airforces....Their airforce is American.
America can probably make their whole airforce dysfunctional....I.e. planted computer glitch or kill switch. Or perhaps even the plane will simply refuse to fire on "friendly" aircraft...?..
They'll obviously do it in a sophisticated way so as to make it look like a routine failure or operator error or will simply say Israel shot them down.
I know posters have laughed at this idea stating if they do that nobody will ever buy from them again....but there are adequate "countermeasures" to ensure nobody will ever find out.
UKBengali
Elite Member
Immortals
Elite Member
Do you think Arab’s care? Why would they ever go against the #1 superpower in the world? That would be suicidal for them:
And the closest thing to a challenger to America is China. And guess what? They have great relations there as well!
America is supplying Saudi Arabia Air Force while China supplies Saudi Arabia with long range missiles and uranium enrichment! Best of both worlds!
Meanwhile Iran cannot buy a screwdriver from China or Russia. And obviously nothing from America.
So again, I ask you. Do you think Arabs care?
Immortals
Elite Member
Iran is running out of time (about 3 weeks) to do TP3. If it does TP3 during Trump, it runs the risk of Trump ego getting hurt and him ordering something to make him seem manly. (Last time he ordered assasination of Solemani and Yemen Quds Force General, the latter survived the attack).
Who knows maybe Iran will conduct TP3 during Trump admin precisely to embarrass him.
Personally whether Iran does or doesn’t do TP3, the reality on the ground won’t change from it. The other side will certainly respond and then Iran will have to do conduct TP4. So iran knows it will have to be side that doesn’t respond to the other either now (ie don’t do TP3) or in the future if these tit for tat punches continue between Israel and Iran.
Immortals
Elite Member
Depends, I would say a Shahab-3 derivative missile probably cost Iran around $100,000. And the most advanced missiles (Qassem missile, Fatah-1, Khorramshahr) closer to $1M or more.
The costs are mostly tied to the warhead maneuverability and the gyroscope tech used with the most advanced gyros costing a good amount of money to achieve <CEP below 25m and in case of Khorramshahr the engine since it’s a newer reverse engineered engine vs Shahab-3 no-dong engine that has been produced since 2000 or F-110 based engines produced since 2008.
Xerxes22
Registered Member
it's all well documented and widely accepted in professional circles that don't rely on unsourced propaganda claims
c. 30-35 impacts at Nevatim (corroborated by the videos from the day where we count c. 30 impacts):
at least 8 impacts seen at Tel Nof air base:
2 other missiles landed in Tel Aviv, one was 500m from Mossad HQ and one hit side of a road:
these are all the missile impacts we have any form of visual evidence of. around 40 in total. not to say that more impacts are impossible but these line up with Iranian statements of their targets and nothing else was caught on video or revealed in satellite imagery.
source of 180 ballistic missiles being fired in total:
Iran launches more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel
Israel warns of consequences for the attack, which Iran says was retaliation for attacks on its allies.www.bbc.co.uk
Iran’s Missile Attack is a Challenge Israel Can’t Ignore
Iran will be hoping that it has reinforced its credibility in the Middle East with its attack on Israel, but it is more likely to prompt a damaging Israeli response.www.rusi.org
now ask those who disagree to substantiate their claims that there were more impacts. they will not be able to (and I doubt they will even try, they just like to sling mud at others).
first of all , I do not believe that 180 missiles were fired. I reckon it was around 100.
why are we taking it as a fact that 180 missiles were fired? where is the evidence behind this besides sum sources? Of course the west will try to ratchet up the number of missiles fired in order to demonstrate a higher interception rate.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
iranian generals said they fired 200 missiles. Israel said it was around 200 missiles.
but happy to see your evidence for 100 missiles.
SolarWarden
Trusted Member
I look at the craters by Ttp-1 and tp-2 and it is sorta looking like the warheads may have been in the lesser yield to maybe not make Israel escalate? Could be why it took so long to launch TP-1 and TP-2 replacing the real warheads with lesser ones?
FOOLS_NIGHTMARE
Elite Member
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
some of the craters were much bigger than others (the one 500m from Mossad HQ seemed large)
the one that destroyed 2 air force hangars in Nevatim (and probably a few aircraft) was also large
but some seemed tiny and likely malfunctioned
others seemed small because (i) warheads were 300-500kg and (ii) the type of surface they impact on has a major impact on the size of the crater
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.
Why it matters: A U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear program during the lame duck period would be an enormous gamble from a president who promised he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but who would also risk handing a fresh conflict over to his successor. Biden did not green light a strike during the meeting and has not done so since, the sources said.
--
likely standard procedure preparing for all contingencies to be able to act immediately if necessary. exactly the kind of thing the IRI leaders are terrible at
Why it matters: A U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear program during the lame duck period would be an enormous gamble from a president who promised he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but who would also risk handing a fresh conflict over to his successor. Biden did not green light a strike during the meeting and has not done so since, the sources said.
- Biden and his national security team discussed various options and scenarios during the meeting, which took place roughly one month ago, but the president did not make any final decision, according to the sources.
- A U.S. official with knowledge of the issue said the White House meeting was not prompted by new intelligence or intended to end in a yes or no decision from Biden. Instead, it was part of a discussion on "prudent scenario planning" of how the U.S. should respond if Iran were to take steps like enriching Uranium to 90% purity before Jan. 20, the official said.
- Another source said there are currently no active discussions inside the White House about possible military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.
--
likely standard procedure preparing for all contingencies to be able to act immediately if necessary. exactly the kind of thing the IRI leaders are terrible at
925boy
Elite Member
@Persian Gulf if Iran's missile threat and potency toward Israel is not strong, why would US move one of its rare THAAD ABM s into Israel to protect Israel when Israel already (apparently) has serious air defense systems like arrow 3? The behavior and reactions of Israel and US militaries to Iran's missile firings at Israel strongly suggests that Iran's missiles are very potent and deadly for its enemies. I agree with the PDF crowd saying you are underestimating the strike % of Iran's missiles on Israel in TP2.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
because unlike iranians they give a shit about their lives and don't take risks they don't need to take
and because Israeli ABM interceptors were being depleted, obviously.
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