Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

No, Article 37 of the JCPOA allows any participant in the agreement (U.S., UK, France, Russia, China, Germany + Iran) to automatically reinstate UN sanctions against Iran if it violates the treaty. However, this only applies if the treaty is still in effect. In August 2020, the U.S. attempted to trigger the mechanism but was ignored by the Security Council because it had withdrawn from the agreement in 2018. Can the remaining members activate the snapback? They could try, as the U.S. did in 2020 (and failed), but it would likely be blocked before even reaching a vote—since the agreement was already violated by the U.S. (which is why the U.S. failed to trigger the snapback in 2020). Even if it passed this initial stage, it would then need full unanimous approval from the UN Security Council. In this case, China and Russia would veto it.

you have some misunderstandings

US did not try because it left the deal and was no longer a party, and only a party to JCPOA can invoke snapback

there is no requirement for other parties to not be in violation to invoke snapback

and the vote does not need unanimous approval of UNSC and it cannot be vetoed. in fact, it is the opposite: it needs unanimous approval to NOT be invoked once you pass the first stage.

 

[ShapurII]

No, Article 37 of the JCPOA allows any participant in the agreement (U.S., UK, France, Russia, China, Germany + Iran) to automatically reinstate UN sanctions against Iran if it violates the treaty. However, this only applies if the treaty is still in effect. In August 2020, the U.S. attempted to trigger the mechanism but was ignored by the Security Council because it had withdrawn from the agreement in 2018. Can the remaining members activate the snapback? They could try, as the U.S. did in 2020 (and failed), but it would likely be blocked before even reaching a vote—since the agreement was already violated by the U.S. (which is why the U.S. failed to trigger the snapback in 2020). Even if it passed this initial stage, it would then need full unanimous approval from the UN Security Council. In this case, China and Russia would veto it.

You do not understand Article 37 of the JCPOA.

Any member of the JCPOA can invoke the snapback mechanism and it cannot be vetoed because there will be no need for a new UNSC resolution for the return of the sanctions. The old resolutions will be automatically reinstated if Iran is found in violation of her agreed terms. All that's required to initiate that is IAEA reports of Iran's unresolved violations, which they already have. This was designed so to completely nullify any potential vetoing by China or Russia. Not that they would've done it for Iran anyway, but still. Not only that, Iran will automatically fall under Chapter VII of the UN charter just like before the JCPOA, meaning that they would be able to use force against Iran through the UN in future (this part requires a new UNSC resolution though).

Also, Article 37 in no way, not even remotely, denies what I said. The JCPOA set Iran's nuclear program back by over 10 years, without firing a single bullet. The US could've never achieved a similar result by bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran had to send its enriched uranium stockpile abroad to Russia, and converts part of it into nuclear fuel under the supervision of the IAEA, and fill the core of the IR-40 reactor with cement, and send our heavy water abroad, before any sanctions relief. Sanctions reliefs started after the fulfilment of of those obligations had been verified by the agency. And as soon as Iran fulfilled her end of the bargain, the United States under Obama started to play games until Trump took the office and he finally officially left the agreement (which was the best move for Iran, ironically). One could at least appreciate Trump's honest move. Trump could've used the snapback mechanism on Iran instead. Yet, he decided to unilaterally pull out of the treaty.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[ShapurII]

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The Islamic Republic has become indecisive in decision making. This is no longer anything remotely similar to the IR that existed during Iraq-Iran war.
We have been infiltrated by money hungry, West loving elites that would do anything to undermine our national security for their sons and children to live in bliss in the West. The hardliners aren't any better either. They have started a standoff with the youths of the country and they have proven to be more loyal to Russia than to Iran. We have returned to the times of the Qajar dynasty unfortunately.

 

[Lulldapull]

AI Telly new vid on the potential battle plans for the two combatants. Never knew the IRGC FOBs equipped with VLS’s for ballistic and cruise missiles. Good animation:

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[StrategicBear]

The Islamic Republic has become indecisive in decision making. This is no longer anything remotely similar to the IR that existed during Iraq-Iran war.
We have been infiltrated by money hungry, West loving elites that would do anything to undermine our national security for their sons and children to live in bliss in the West. The hardliners aren't any better either. They have started a standoff with the youths of the country and they have proven to be more loyal to Russia than to Iran. We have returned to the times of the Qajar dynasty unfortunately.

Why can't Iranians be more West-hating like North Korea? Is it because Iranians share similar Caucasian genes than Mongoloid genes?

 

[ShapurII]

Why can't Iranians be more West-hating like North Korea? Is it because Iranians share similar Caucasian genes than Mongoloid genes?

It has historical reasons. During the Qajar dynasty, Iran had been encircled by global powers of the time. Tsarist Russia to the North, the British Empire to the East and the South and the Ottomans to the West.

The Safavids imported European influence in Iran because of our rivalry with the Ottomans. But things took a turn after Perso-Russian wars in the 18th century. The Qajar dynasty wanted to fight with Russia, but it didn't have modern military equipment and artillery. So, we decided to ask the French and the British for military aid to stand against the Russians. The French betrayed Iran and the British used every opportunity to weaken Iran and infiltrate our political system (mainly because they saw Iran as a threat for their most valuable colony: India) in return for giving us a glimpse of the modern world and technology.

Since then Iran has been trying to balance the influence of foreign powers in her country. It was the British and the Russians in the Qajar dynasty. Then it became the Americans and the remaining pro-Soviet forces (Tudeh Party) in the Pahlavi era. And now we are back to that phase again, but this time it's about the Reformists and the Hardliners.

As of today, the reason that the Iranians remain pro-West is mainly the generation that the late Shah of Iran raised and they only remember the economic boost of Iran in 1970s. They were very pro-American and anti-Soviet to the core because of the Shah's propaganda machine. The Islamic Republic has failed miserably in economy and culture, which has made pro-West people have a stronger position than before because they see the regime's failure to provide even basic needs of the country as a result of their stance against the West. The minimum salary in Iran is less than $150 per month now, because the Iranian Rial is devaluating as we speak. People see that and compare that to the time of the Shah and come to the conclusion that the regime's anti-West stance has cost them nothing but misery while the ruling elite has sent their family to the West and have millions of dollars of personal investments in European and American countries. Also, Russia and China have abandoned Iran in times of need (like in 2009) multiple times, which has resulted in an even more pro-West stance among Iranians.

 

[royalharris]

Trump signed an executive order to reimpose 'maximum pressure' against Iran and drive Iran's oil exports to 0

now we discover Iran's oil exports to China last month (March 2025) reached 1.9 million b/d, the highest level for several years

failure of maximum pressure sanctions

View attachment 111232

Iran heavily need China

 

[MS Sandhu]

What do you guys make of Ritter's new argument?

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It's everything I've been saying, about a complete and total bombing attack with nukes, aiming at command and control, bunkers, necessities of life, transit hubs, civilian centers, military, and nuclear facilities, combined with CIA/Mossad activated separatism. The only logical goal here for America and Israel is to destroy Iran as a nation (break it up) and genocide Iranians to the tune of several million, including with strategic nukes.

He also said the same thing as me about this attack being so violent and gruesome that it will leave Iran with no ability to strike back- all its missiles will be gone, its leadership will be gone, and the remnants of Iran's military will be disbanding or getting slaughtered by separatists, unable to unify the country.

Iran had 40 years to prepare, but America and Israel did, too.

Relax bro
If US was so hard about Iran,
They would have done this when Iran was very weak like in 1980s & early 1990s.
US just keeps playing with Iran for Israel.no direct enmity.
US will never (at least for foreseeable future) go all out to attack Iran.

 

[OldTwilight]

how does that explain how iran will avoid snapback in October?

zarif simply give them full control .
Our parliament should issue a law that force government to automatically withdraw from npt and stop any collaboration with nuclear agency in case of using snapback mechanism...

 

[hussain0216]

zarif simply give them full control .
Our parliament should issue a law that force government to automatically withdraw from npt and stop any collaboration with nuclear agency in case of using snapback mechanism...

If you look at international law it's just a stick to beat the global south, black and brown people with

International law and order is disregarded when the west interests are effected eg Israel

This should be made clear to the west, the Europeeans and the U.S, Iran should be very vocal about this

How and why a genocidal state like Israel can have nuclear weapons and why Iran shouldn't be able to defend itself

 

[PakAl]

I have been active on this forum as Arian since 2009. I was one of the first international moderators on PDF, when it became a thing. I have been an active supporter of Iran all these years, putting all my efforts into defending my country on the internet, but I am afraid that this is it. The time has come and the Islamic Republic has lost all opportunities. Either by complete idiocy, or by treason.

Back in 2020, I said very clearly that Iran had only 4 years to either make the bomb or make peace with the United States. It was crystal clear that time was running out and Trump would get re-elected in 2024. And it was quite clear that Trump would not leave Iran alone when re-elected.
The Islamic Republic chose to waste these 4 years serving the interests of Muslims, who eventually stabbed Iran in the back and we will very soon witness how they will behave indifferently towards the upcoming US battles with Iran. The IR brutally killed Iranian youths in Mahsa Amini's protests to further bring the country into the edge of destruction.

On October 7th, I again warned that this was Turkey and Qatar (Ikhwan Al-Muslimin) plotting with the West to drag Iran into a devastating war. While people here cheered Hamas's stupid, blind attack, possibly coordinated with Israel herself, I was worried that this would result in the destruction of our front lines against Israel at a crucial time when we needed peace rather than new tensions. I was proven to be right. Some people here were so delusional that when Qatar and Saudi Arabia severed their ties, they thought Qatar would be in Iran's strategic ally lol These people are still there.

While people here said that Assad would not fall and he was in a much stronger position and Russia was not betraying Assad, again I said that Assad would fall soon and a few sorties by the Russian Air Force were just a staged show before handing over Syria to the HTS.

I repeatedly said (since the lifting of UNSC sanctions on Iran) that the SU-35 deal would not go through because Russia would delay it as far as possible until the last moment and then they would betray Iran as usual. Same fools who thought Turkey and Qatar were Iran's allies said that this time was different and the situation in Russia had changed.

I warned that if TP3 did not happen, the next move would be a direct military confrontation with Iran and here we are... Needless to say, I was against throwing missiles at Israel as a show-off because it made us lose our last remaining deterrent factor. They realized that our missiles were far less accurate and destructive than anticipated.

The truth is that we are a sitting duck. The Islamic Republic still has solid military options on paper, but the system is corrupt to the bone and they will never take those options in fear of retaliation by the West. After all, they have too much money invested in the West and their children and family members live in the West. It was these people that made Iran surrender in 2015 to one of the worst deals signed in our history (JCPOA). The deal with Trump, if it happens, will be only to defang Iran further than before. It is basically the same kind of deal that they offered Ghaddafi before overthrowing him and it will be the last nail in the coffin.

We have been hearing for decades on Iran building a nuclear bomb, if the government of Iran wanted to they could have done it. Back in 2005 breaking news was Pakistan nuclear scientist sold Iran technology for the bomb.

Pakistan admits nuclear expert traded with Iran

The Pakistani information minister admitted today that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear programme, gave nuclear technology to Iran, but insisted the government knew nothing of the transaction.

www.theguardian.com

Pakistani generals 'helped sell nuclear secrets'

• North Korea paid senior figures $3.5m, letter claims• AQ Khan 'wants to set the historical record straight'

www.theguardian.com

If after 20 years Iran still not had built the bomb then they are in big trouble. Iran either needs to build the bomb to protect its self from Nato invasion or change their policy and become friendly, but even that will not end well for Iran, learning from Libya and Iraq, both nations destroyed their weapons and ended up being bombed, the West wants regime change in Iran, they will never back away, what threat was Gaddafi or Bashar Al Assad to the west, they both had weak militaries but still got bombed and regimes changed.

 

[ShapurII]

We have been hearing for decades on Iran building a nuclear bomb, if the government of Iran wanted to they could have done it. Back in 2005 breaking news was Pakistan nuclear scientist sold Iran technology for the bomb.

Pakistan admits nuclear expert traded with Iran

The Pakistani information minister admitted today that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear programme, gave nuclear technology to Iran, but insisted the government knew nothing of the transaction.

www.theguardian.com

Pakistani generals 'helped sell nuclear secrets'

• North Korea paid senior figures $3.5m, letter claims• AQ Khan 'wants to set the historical record straight'

www.theguardian.com

If after 20 years Iran still not had built the bomb then they are in big trouble. Iran either needs to build the bomb to protect its self from Nato invasion or change their policy and become friendly, but even that will not end well for Iran, learning from Libya and Iraq, both nations destroyed their weapons and ended up being bombed, the West wants regime change in Iran, they will never back away, what threat was Gaddafi or Bashar Al Assad to the west, they both had weak militaries but still got bombed and regimes changed.

The issue is not technical, it's political. If we believe the documents that the Mossad has released of Iran's AMAD project (Emad), Iran already had designed a working implosion device similar to Mark V in the US arsenal by the end of 2003. That's small enough to deliver ~30 Kilotons of destruction and radiation (per Israeli intelligence estimations) to Tel Aviv on a Khorramshahr missile. So, even miniaturization is not an issue here. 30 Kilotons is far from impressive and strategic, but it is definitely enough for deterrence against a tiny state like Israel.

And if Iran needs tactical nukes, Iran could even go for gun-type nukes. Even terrorist groups can produce gun-type devices having access to enough HEU.

 

[Persian Gulf]

zarif simply give them full control .
Our parliament should issue a law that force government to automatically withdraw from npt and stop any collaboration with nuclear agency in case of using snapback mechanism...

not just Zarif, Khamenei signed off on it as well, it just suits their interests to blame it all on Zarif

withdrawing from NPT in case of snapback is already Iran's stated position, but I am not sure it is convincing enough for Europe to waive their right to invoke snapback by October and let UNSC sanctions regime against Iran fall entirely (and likely permanently)

from now until October will be very decisive and potentially difficult months. we are at a major crossroads

 

[ShapurII]

not just Zarif, Khamenei signed off on it as well, it just suits their interests to blame it all on Zarif

withdrawing from NPT in case of snapback is already Iran's stated position, but I am not sure it is convincing enough for Europe to waive their right to invoke snapback by October and let UNSC sanctions regime against Iran fall entirely (and likely permanently)

from now until October will be very decisive and potentially difficult months. we are at a major crossroads

Withdrawing from the NPT is practically impossible. Iran needs to inform the agency of her intention to withdraw from the NPT 3 months before it implements the decision. And of course, 3 months is more than enough time for the West to put together a military force against Iran and even annex parts of Iran.

If Iran wants to build atomic bombs, it has to do it through illegal means, which is probably too late now.

Khamenei's policy of keeping the status quo at all costs has cornered us in a situation that leads only to catastrophic results, no matter how you look at it.