Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[tsunset]

 

[Aziqbal]

Russia start sending Iran weapons now!!!

China start moving your Carriers

Pakistan better start talking

if we allow Iran to be attacked we are all doomed

 

[BigMela2onin]

As for the IR leadership, I am going to say it as honestly as possible, that is possibly the best scenario for Iran if this paralysis also includes assassination of some of these high profile authorities. If Israelis really do that, we should even send them a thank you note.

There is no one to replace them, we can refer to my previous posts about how Iranians have failed to come up with a domestic alternative to IRI for half a century now. There is nothing to fill the void if IRI's leadership is assassinated.

 

[Persian Gulf]

An Iranian source to Al Mayadeen: American psychological pressure does not reflect reality

Washington's goal is to pressure Iran to make concessions in the nuclear negotiations and accept the American proposal

There is no real indicator of the region heading toward military escalation between Iran and the United States

Israel seeks to drag the United States into a military confrontation with Iran but this is unlikely at the current stage

Any Israeli military step against Iranian nuclear facilities will be met with an unprecedented response from Tehran

 

[Persian Gulf]

There is no one to replace them, we can refer to my previous posts about how Iranians have failed to come up with a domestic alternative to IRI for half a century now. There is nothing to fill the void if IRI's leadership is assassinated.

We already have SNSC model. That can work with increased IRGC influence until the war ends and a new Leader is chosen

 

[ShapurII]

even with air superiority (which I think will take weeks to establish) they can't fly over Tehran 24/7 given the sheer distance between Iran and Israel (and size of Iran)

we have to hope this intelligence operation helped identify new targets and Qasem Basir EO sensor has been produced in big numbers and IRI is prepared for every scenario with responses already planned out and ready for instant implementation. even though every historical data point we have suggests this isn't the case...

Israel alone, yes. But the US can possibly establish air superiority over Iran faster than weeks, particularly if their allies in the region help them. And they don't need to establish air superiority over all of Iran. Just over Natanz and Fordow.

Even if we forget the issues of explosive power and accuracy of our missiles, we still have the issue of lack of proper decision making in the IR. I believe that even if we have the proper tools to fight back, the IR will be unwilling to turn this into a war. As I said, Pezeshkian was honest when he said that the only thing they would do is try to rebuild the nuclear infrastructure.

 

[SolarWarden]

Iran next time please do True Promise 3

this time with NUKES

Pakistan grow some balls and stand up for your brothers in Iran you American cock suckers

send them a few nukes

Pretty brave of you from the comfort of UK and not Pakistan. What do you think would happen to Pakistan if they did what you say? Use logic when answering and not feelings/emotions like a chick.

 

[ShapurII]

There is no one to replace them, we can refer to my previous posts about how Iranians have failed to come up with a domestic alternative to IRI for half a century now. There is nothing to fill the void if IRI's leadership is assassinated.

At least some younger people within the IRGC can take over. All we can hope for is that they are more practical/realistic and less driven by ideology.

 

[Aziqbal]

Pretty brave of you from the comfort of UK and not Pakistan. What do you think would happen to Pakistan if they did what you say? Use logic when answering and not feelings/emotions like a chick.

That’s what Libya and Iraq said

My ancestors are from Pakistan

And I want a strong Pakistan

 

[Persian Gulf]

lots of sensationalist fake news going around

always happens during fog of (pre-)war

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israel alone, yes. But the US can possibly establish air superiority over Iran faster than weeks, particularly if their allies in the region help them. And they don't need to establish air superiority over all of Iran. Just over Natanz and Fordow.

Even if we forget the issues of explosive power and accuracy of our missiles, we still have the issue of lack of proper decision making in the IR. I believe that even if we have the proper tools to fight back, the IR will be unwilling to turn this into a war. As I said, Pezeshkian was honest when he said that the only thing they would do is try to rebuild the nuclear infrastructure.

If US imposes total war on Iran then the response is to block oil and cause domestic problems for Trump and level every US base in the region. if they have to launch planes from 2000km away, the sortie rate will drop significantly

lack of will and decision making is a valid concern but this is really the put up or shut up moment so I think IRI is cornered and has to respond strongly

TP2 was a very strong response, except the missiles had 100-500m CEP rather than 10m as advertised, so now we think it was a weak response designed not to do any damage, which I do not think is true...

 

[F-22Raptor]

 

[ShapurII]

If US imposes total war on Iran then the response is to block oil and cause domestic problems for Trump and level every US base in the region. if they have to launch planes from 2000km away, the sortie rate will drop significantly

lack of will and decision making is a valid concern but this is really the put up or shut up moment so I think IRI is cornered and has to respond strongly

TP2 was a very strong response, except the missiles had 100-500m CEP rather than 10m as advertised, so now we think it was a weak response designed not to do any damage, which I do not think is true...

I agree with you on this. Iran does have the capacity to make things difficult for the US, but the lack of will and poor decision making are going to render our capabilities useless, particularly if they're not used in time. For us, it's all about timing. When it's too late, it's too late.

I think it was a bit of both. We have discussed this before, they didn't even attempt to target easy non-hardened, and very obvious ones, like the Control Towers.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Patriotism era starts now.

- Israel can only reliably hit Iran with aeroballistic missiles. These are powerful and accurate and Iran cannot intercept them. But they are not likely to be produced in massive numbers for a sustained campaign against Iran. And they cannot reach Fordow.

- Iran's missile waves would be more successful per wave as Israeli interceptors are depleted. We only saw two waves 6 months apart and the missile success rate increased from 9% to 30%. What happens if we see two waves per day? The success rate could plausibly increase to 60%+ very quickly, and then things would look very very bad for Israel very quickly.

- Iran has learned lessons from Operations True Promise I and II, improving reliability of warheads and introducing EO sensor for improved accuracy. With creative methods, this can produce drastically different results (40 precise impacts on Nevatim is hugely destructive compared to 40 off target impacts).

- Israel has been bleeding interceptors to face dozens of Yemeni ballistic missiles in the last few months, using 10 interceptors for 1 Yemeni missiles just yesterday. They are already starting from a lower baseline of inventory.

@ShapurII @GWXP @Hack-Hook @Mehdipersian @Immortals

 

[F-22Raptor]