Hayabusa
Registered Member
Agreed
It's not just it being not as accurate as we expect.
The whole place seems designed to handle the blast even if the missiles are accurate. This is what I found on chatGPT.
Based on publicly available information and technical assessments, it is highly unlikely that the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) has been fully destroyed by an airstrike using conventional weapons. Fordow is one of the most fortified nuclear facilities in the world. It is located near the city of Qom, Iran, and buried beneath approximately 80 to 100 meters of solid rock. The geological makeup of the mountain is believed to consist of granite and limestone, both of which provide substantial protection. Granite, in particular, is a dense and hard igneous rock that not only resists penetration but also absorbs the shock from explosions, making successive strikes less effective.
The United States' most powerful non-nuclear bunker-busting weapon, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), is designed specifically to penetrate deep underground targets. While it is capable of penetrating up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete or over 100 meters of soil, its estimated penetration depth into granite is considerably less — likely in the range of 20 to 40 meters. Even with a series of perfectly targeted MOPs — for example, 12 in a sequence — the physics of shock absorption, crater refilling, and structural reinforcement within the mountain would make it extraordinarily difficult to reach and destroy the core enrichment chambers of Fordow.
There is also no credible evidence — such as satellite imagery, seismic readings, or reliable intelligence — to confirm that Fordow has been cratered, collapsed, or permanently rendered inoperable. In past incidents involving damage or sabotage to Iran’s nuclear sites (such as at Natanz), Iran has either publicly acknowledged the attacks or reacted with retaliatory rhetoric and escalatory military posturing. No such response has occurred in relation to Fordow, further casting doubt on any claims of its destruction.
While it remains possible that specific surface structures — such as access tunnels, ventilation systems, or power infrastructure — may have been targeted or damaged, the likelihood of the entire underground facility being destroyed by conventional airstrikes is extremely low. The only plausible methods for such a complete elimination would involve either the use of a nuclear earth-penetrator (which would be a major and highly escalatory act) or significant internal sabotage — neither of which has been confirmed.
In conclusion, the destruction of Fordow by conventional means, even with multiple MOPs, is considered technically improbable. Claims suggesting otherwise should be approached with skepticism unless backed by solid, independent verification such as satellite data or seismic analysis.
