Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[BigMela2onin]

They realize if their society is not constantly at war, it will eat itself

 

[The SC]

Two American sources: Iran has made preparations to cloud the Strait of Hormuz

https://t.co/2NGFTtWD5S

 

[the saint]

 

[mangekyo]

I recall many saying in this thread that Hezbollah should launch an attack immediately guess what they were right..

The situation for Hezbollah gotten even worse now as their opportunity of window is closing very fast. There might be ceasefire in Gaza as soon as next week and end of war this means Hezbollah has a window of 7 days opportunity.

The Lebanese army had a meeting this week to disarm Hezbollah.. The lesson learned from here is to never accept ceasefires easily with this foe this is what we have learned from this rounds flare up. The worst thing one can do is accept ceasefire prematurelt and Hezbollah fell into that trap.

The same with Iran.. They are both under the Lebanon model.

Look at the Houthis they understand the game as they have nothing to lose like Hamas-PIJ but Hezbollah has nothing to lose in reality by simple refraining from fighting they need to re-enter the war and re-negotiate a new ceasefire that is suitable.

Once all the wars end Hezbollah will look back at this as wasted penalty kick

Plus not to forget they did some significiant damage during the fighting and were doing well despite losing some leaders but they accepted the ceasefire prematurely that was their only mistake.

Why you even keeping Lebanon intact go hard, so the jews also come down hard it would be win-win for them as majority of these masīḥiyy and liberals would have fled.

They do not understand how to hustle or how to benefit from the two fronts and negotiate for better deals.. Lack of hustle but they need to seize on the opportunity

Hezbollah is hated by the Sunnis and Christian’s who want to normalize with Israel. They can’t risk dragging Lebanon into another war or it might face a civil war

 

[Farhan23]

I don’t think so. The Sunnis would have blamed hezbollah for the war and sided with Israel.

Ofcourse not. Look what happened in 2006.. Hezbollah started the war the Sunnis from Tripoli came in the hundred of thousands to fight alongside Hezbollah this lead to Israel´s defeat.

if you do A then B will follow by default and C could be forced to flee and could have lead to a better outcome for Hezbollah

 

[Fatman17]

You buffoon, who is paying these afghani to kill our soldiers? Your daddy?

How do you wage war on a neighboring country without external funding? unless yous got super power protection?

Foolish karachi converted charsi, you just can't see it no?

@Waz @RescueRanger @Fatman17 .........iss ko ban karo yaar.........we can't have buffoons running around here anymore........

Report him

 

[mangekyo]

Ofcourse not. Look what happened in 2006.. Hezbollah started the war the Sunnis from Tripoli came in the hundred of thousands to fight alongside Hezbollah.

Sometimes if you do A then B will follow by default and C could be forced to flee

The world was very different back in 2006

 

[Farhan23]

The world was very different back in 2006

The world is still the same Hezbollah has firm alliance with these in Tripoli.. plus during war times all they have to do is begin and there houses would have come under fire beginning the war.

Nasrullah and his deputy were good leaders but not the third one

 

[mangekyo]

The world is still the same Hezbollah has firm alliance with these in Tripoli.. plus during war times all they have to do is begin and there houses would have come under fire beginning the war.

They aren’t supported by the general population. Its difficult to fight a war without support from the population. There’s also a big chance Al-Qaida from Syria will join and that will drag Turkey in too.

 

[Farhan23]

They aren’t supported by the general population. Its difficult to fight a war without support from the population. There’s also a big chance Al-Qaida from Syria will join and that will drag Turkey in too.

That is not how this works. Syria has got what it wants. Lebanon is a sovereign state. There is no danger of Hezbollah being ambushed if they had started the conflict against Israel it would be a Israel-Lebanese war.

But by sitting by silently the Lebanese army will disarm Hezbollah because they have become surplus to requirement by just sitting there then why you keeping the weapons.

They had to shake the boat and they can still do it before the ceasefire is reached otherwise that ship will sail.

Hezbollah needs to open the front before any ceasefire goes thru..

 

[mangekyo]

That is not how this works. Syria has got what it wants. Lebanon is a sovereign state. There is no danger of Hezbollah being ambushed if they had started the conflict against Israel it would be a Israel-Lebanese war.

But by sitting by silently the Lebanese army will disarm Hezbollah because they have become surplus to requirement by just sitting there then why you keeping the weapons.

They had to shake the boat and they can still do it before the ceasefire is reached otherwise that ship will sail.

Hezbollah needs to open the front before any ceasefire goes thru..

Look, it’s not that simple. Hezbollah can’t just open a big front like you’re saying.

First, they’re politically cornered in Lebanon. Most people there don’t want another war with Israel. The country’s broke, people are furious about the destruction already, and there’s zero appetite for another war.

If Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a massive war against the will of the people, they’re risking their entire position. The idea that the Lebanese Army will disarm them because they’re quiet is wrong, it’s actually if they force Lebanon into war that everyone will turn on them and demand they give up their weapons. It’s all talks now, but if there’s a new war, they’ll make it happen.

And you’re ignoring the bigger regional plan here. The US, Turkey, Israel, and Arab states want to finish off all Iranian-backed groups in the region. There’s a real risk of Turkish backed Al-Qaida joining in against Hezbollah. Turkey controls those groups and they will send them to Lebanon under the cover of «protecting Sunnis»

So Hezbollah knows they’re stuck. Starting a big war means losing their arsenal, getting Lebanon flattened, losing support at home, and facing enemies on multiple fronts. That’s why they’re being cautious.

 

[Farhan23]

Look, it’s not that simple. Hezbollah can’t just open a big front like you’re saying.

First, they’re politically cornered in Lebanon. Most people there don’t want another war with Israel. The country’s broke, people are furious about the destruction already, and there’s zero appetite for another war.

If Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a massive war against the will of the people, they’re risking their entire position. The idea that the Lebanese Army will disarm them because they’re quiet is wrong, it’s actually if they force Lebanon into war that everyone will turn on them and demand they give up their weapons. It’s all talks now, but if there’s a new war, they’ll make it happen.

And you’re ignoring the bigger regional plan here. The US, Turkey, Israel, and Arab states want to finish off all Iranian-backed groups in the region. There’s a real risk of Turkish backed Al-Qaida joining in against Hezbollah. Turkey controls those groups and they will send them to Lebanon under the cover of «protecting Sunnis»

So Hezbollah knows they’re stuck. Starting a big war means losing their arsenal, getting Lebanon flattened, losing support at home, and facing enemies on multiple fronts. That’s why they’re being cautious.

Honestly them being cautious is against the logic.. What benefits does it do for them once they are disarmed by the lebanese gov´t and they join the gov´t as political entity? What benefit do they get from that? Absolutely nothing.

Turkey will not send Syria into Lebanon they have no interest there or what not nor will the Tripoli militants back stab Hezbollah they are allies for over 30+ years. If the war starts the war starts hence the problem is also why does Hezbollah care so much for Lebanon dude F´ Lebanon let it blow up which will benefit Hezbollah as The US, Sissi and GCC will be the losers as they have alot of economical assests inside Lebanon plus there are also Mashiy elements they will flee at the event of war.

It is very regretable that Lebanon goes untouched. I would even argue Hezbollah to come down hard in order to force Israel to come down hard as well.

The necessary goal is to create a meat-grinder in Lebanon and possibly a prolonged war a decade long it will automatically clean-up from the inside out

 

[mangekyo]

Honestly them being cautious is against the logic.. What benefits does it do for them once they are disarmed by the lebanese gov´t and they join the gov´t as political entity? What benefit do they get from that? Absolutely nothing.

Turkey will not send Syria into Lebanon they have no interest there or what not nor will the Tripoli militants back stab Hezbollah they are allies for over 30+ years. If the war starts the war starts hence the problem is also why does Hezbollah care so much for Lebanon dude F´ Lebanon let it blow up which will benefit Hezbollah as The US, Sissi and GCC will be the losers as they have alot of economical assests inside Lebanon plus there are also Mashiy elements they will flee at the event of war.

It is veryt regretable that Lebanon survives this war

Bro, you really need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture here.

First of all, Turkey is NATO. They’re not some anti Israel resistance force. During the Gaza war, Turkey literally supplied Israel with 40% of its energy needs. Why? Because they wanted Hamas smashed.

Why were they so bent on toppling Assad in Syria? Because Assad was the key to Iran’s land corridor to Lebanon. Turkey backed Al-Qaida and other jihadists to block Iranian weapons flowing to Hezbollah. That served both Turkey’s and Israel’s interests perfectly.

And look at Azerbaijan, Turkeys vassal state. Azerbaijan literally hosts Israeli intelligence and military bases. Turkey and Israel have overlapping strategic goals even if they pretend to argue on TV.

So don’t kid yourself that Turkey wouldn’t want Hezbollah gone. They absolutely do. If a regional war breaks out, Al-Qaida will enter and we will see a bloody civil war in Lebanon and most likely the end of Hezbollah forever.

Why would Hezbollah care about Lebanon? Is that a serious question?

Because they are Lebanese, they live there. Their base, families, supporters are in Lebanon.

Why be cautious if they’ll get disarmed anyway?

Wrong. If they stay quiet, no one can disarm them. If they drag Lebanon into ruin, they lose local support and then there’s real pressure to disarm them to save the country.

US, GCC will lose their assets?

Yeah, and they’ll pay to rebuild, but only if Hezbollah is out of the picture. War doesn’t scare them, it gives them leverage to force Hezbollah to disarm in exchange for aid.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

 

[GWXP]

Israel lost the 12 Day War with Iran because it failed to achieve its objectives:

1) Israel FAILED to destroy the Iranian nuclear program - Iran still has 408kg of HEU and IR-6 centrifuges and the nuclear program itself was not destroyed but rather rolled back by only 2 to 6 months.

2) Israel FAILED to remove the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons - since key components of the nuclear program are intact the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons is NOT removed. Moreover, after this war Iran reduced relations with the IAEA and might accelerate its nuclear program.

3) Israel FAILED to degrade Iranian ballistic missiles program - contrary to Western propaganda, Iran succeeded in launching 550 missiles at Israel with hundreds of impacts. And Iranian underground missile bases and underground missile production facilities survived. During the war we saw ineffectiveness of David's Sling, Arrow-3, THAAD, PAC-3 and SM-3 with only 3-4 videos of these systems successfully intercepting Iranian missiles.

4) Israel FAILED to degrade the ability of Iranian military to retaliate against Israel - while Israel killed several key generals, they have been quickly replaced and Iran started its retaliation.

5) Israel FAILED to create internal crisis within the Iranian regime - Israel killed several key Iranian generals who were pillars of the system, but these generals were replaced by other loyal generals and Iranian system showed strong resilience. Moreover, this war united Iranian people with the Islamic government and discredited pro-Western opposition as enemy collaborators.

We can conclude that despite some tactical successes, Israel failed to achieve its objectives and ISRAEL LOST THE WAR.