Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Arash]

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ok grandpa time to get to bed

Israelis are the best at psy, info and cognitive warfare, so we can doubt these news but not deny them 100%.........

 

[ShapurII]

Most of what you said I have answered in my answer to Persian Gulf. But here is a quick reply to some of the points you made.

- Leadership just does not have the will to make the devices regardless of any outside factor involved. If they wanted they could have done it in 90s when high speed C-Fibre centrifuges were designed (and patented) by Fakhrizadeh for HEU enrichment. We see no indication of quick progress from there, instead Khamenei's pup Ahmadinejad deliberately politicised the Iranian nuclear program. So discussing metallic WGU workshop means nothing here when the Guys who will fund this workshop from national treasury just do not want to do it at all. They want to use the nuclear program to bargain with outside powers to keep themselves in power out of pure personal greed mixed with ideological delusionalism.

- US has no reason to take over or unseat IRI. Any desirability in Iran means Russian, China and then smaller power groups like PGCC will be having a free hand in a critical region that serves as a global supply route. Russia is the biggest beneficiary of IRI in Iran since every self immolation move by IRI ultimately favours Russia. Void by Iranian departure from Trillion USD hydrocarbon market was filled by guess whom?

The problem with your analysis is that you're viewing the situation from the perspective of us Iranians; however, the Israelis think of Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, and the Americans view it as the worst thing that could happen for their interests in the region. They simply don't trust the Ayatollahs who have chanted "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" for decades nearly every week.

They probably fully know that the leadership of Iran is indecisive and even compromised, but there is no guarantee that things would remain the same forever. You can never count on the status quo to continue forever. And as so, they had to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and they did this to a great extent.

Also, no matter how incompetent and foolish the Iranian establishment is, the Americans and the Israelis know that it can always get worse for Iran. For example, they can disintegrate Iran into multiple states, encircle Iran with new hostile states, and keep the IR in power in whatever remains of Iran. So, even if the US doesn't want to unseat the IR, it doesn't mean that they are not interested in weakening Iran even further.

People who say "but the knowledge is still there", well, yes, that is true. But the knowledge alone is not going to make you a bomb. In fact, the knowledge of producing nuclear weapons is not as tightly restricted and confidential as it used to be decades ago. The US has even disclosed seminars and articles that were published during the Manhattan project, including their calculations. It's the technology of 80 years ago for God's sake. Having the knowledge is one thing, having the capability is another. And the US has destroyed our capability to produce a nuclear bomb (assuming there were no undisclosed sites with clandestine activities).

In short, if what we knew about Iran's nuclear program was all that there was to it, it's gone. Knowledge will stay, but without equipment, it's only good for theoretical work from now on.

 

[ShapurII]

Does it really matter? At this point? Iran is still there, it's not atomized like Syria or Iraq. The nuclear knowledge is still there.....so yeah, we ran out of luck, due to the ineptitude of our leadership, too many kings and kingdoms inside IRI's government. The new Defense Council is a step in the right direction, but I digress, yes, 1000 dead, lot's of damage, but come on! We hit back, and we hit back hard.....let's concentrate on the cheese, not the holes in the cheese. They retreated.....they hit us, but they didn't have the moxy to finish the job. I think the real truth is somewhere in the middle, yes, Israel did some serious damage, but by doing it and not finishing it, they gave us a great gift.....even the dumb asses in Iran are now awake. This was a very important teachable moment for Iran. We hit them back, and this was the first time these bastards soiled their pants, since the 1970s...no one else, and I mean no one has ever done what we did to them, we showed the world these pricks are not invincible.....and they learned Iranians are not a soft target. We have every incentive to go full nuclear.....but we have to do it under the cover of darkness. I think the Iranian leadership knows that.

The real question is this: Did we learn anything from it?
I really hoped we would do, but it seems that nothing has changed.

People are still saying the same sort of nonsense in the highest ranks of the regime.
A few days after the war, you heard a lot of new voices, a lot of new ideas. One month after the war, it's all back to how it was before the war. So, it seems that we have learned nothing and they will finish the job with a few more attempts.

We still have 3 more years of Trump, and if he becomes successful and restores "the greatness" of America, there's a high chance that the next US president would be more of the same. Let's not forget that the attacks on Iran were viewed quite positively by the MAGA people in the US after they realized that not even a single American died and Iran didn't play to retaliate. It boosted the US reputation as the world's strongest country and that's all that these MAGA idiots want.

 

[kastor ville]

The real question is this: Did we learn anything from it?
I really hoped we would do, but it seems that nothing has changed.

People are still saying the same sort of nonsense in the highest ranks of the regime.
A few days after the war, you heard a lot of new voices, a lot of new ideas. One month after the war, it's all back to how it was before the war. So, it seems that we have learned nothing and they will finish the job with a few more attempts.

We still have 3 more years of Trump, and if he becomes successful and restores "the greatness" of America, there's a high chance that the next US president would be more of the same. Let's not forget that the attacks on Iran were viewed quite positively by the MAGA people in the US after they realized that not even a single American died and Iran didn't play to retaliate. It boosted the US reputation as the world's strongest country and that's all that these MAGA idiots want.

All good points....but we all know fighting the US is a fool's errand. We have to avoid that. Again at this point I don't think it matters....the nuclear facilities will have to be
rebooted in a smaller capacity.
The uranium needs to recovered and moved to a military location. Fuxk the IAEA, and anything to do with international organs. We now know they're fully compromised.
Second, a smaller enrichment facility needs to be built...with advanced centrifuges.
Third, enrich to 90% and go all out. If news leaks out, we can blame it on the Israeli aggression, and being attacked during the negotiations.. we can use the line: Iran has a right to defend itself... beautifully ironic.
Third, test the device underground...they will know it's not an earthquake but let IRIB say it was...deny..deny..deny. they will know but the seeds of doubt will keep the world guessing.
After that detonation, they need to have a delivery system to be taken seriously....they need to develop one on a separate track.
The Rubicon has been crossed. It was crossed by Israel and Trump. Let's roll this scenario up and hang it around their neck. Everything that they didn't want to happen, they made happen.

 

[ShapurII]

All good points....but we all know fighting the US is a fool's errand. We have to avoid that. Again at this point I don't think it matters....the nuclear facilities will have to be
rebooted in a smaller capacity.
The uranium needs to recovered and move to a military location. **** the IAEA..and anything to do with international organs. We now know they're fully compromised.
Second, a smaller enrichment facility needs to be built...with advanced centrifuges.
Third, enrich to 90% and go all out. If news leaks out, we can blame it on the Israeli aggression, and being attacked during the negotiations.. we can use the line: Iran has a right to defend itself... beautifully ironic.
Third, test the device underground...they will know it's not an earthquake but let IRB say it was...deny..deny..deny. they will know but the seeds of doubt will keep the world guessing.
After that detonation, they need to have a delivery system to be taken seriously....they need to develop one on a separate track.
The Rubicon has been crossed. It was crossed by Israel and Trump. Let's roll this scenario up and hang it around their neck. Everything that they didn't want to happen, they made happen.

We can say all that we want, we know quite well that the regime will never listen to what people want or what Iranians say.

When people in Tehran, and a few other cities like Isfahan, protested in 2008 about Ahmadinejad's nuclear policies, more than 3 million people were in the streets in Tehran after the election results, people were brutally suppressed. 7 years later, the regime signed a humiliating deal called the JCPOA, and the conservative-controlled parliament of the time passed it in 20 minutes.

Now, more than 73% of Iranians have said that they want the country to build nuclear weapons. This is according to Tabnak, a reformist newspaper. So, even 73% of reformists want nukes now. It used to be well below 30% before the JCPOA. Now that nearly everyone wants Iran to go nuclear, the regime insists on not doing that.

The regime is not Iranian. It is clear as day. It always does exactly the opposite of what is good for Iran, or what the Iranian public wants.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Israelis are the best at psy, info and cognitive warfare, so we can doubt these news but not deny them 100%.........

Yes the jews hide casualties but you cannot hide a "large city" being destroyed with "all the zionists living there being eliminated." That’s 10s of thousands of casualties. Unless this is some sort of mistranslation for a base or something, as I haven't listened to the original audio. Frankly he should have been removed from his post for making such a retarded statement. We need to get rid of all the blustering incompetents in the military.

 

[FUB]

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Buried lead?
Persian Gulf Arab air forces are for show. They spent 100s of billions of dollars in arms supposedly to protect the sovereignty of these fake countries but they can only engage in approved conflicts .
If they don’t align with Israel/US, such as the Abraham accords, then the shiny toys are disabled .

I am not making an argument for IRI negligence but maybe that is one of the reasons they invested and focused on missiles as offensive platforms .

I remember I came across an article regarding the kilo class subs. They were worried that if they ever sent them to Russia for refurbishment , they would not get them back. When they did the refurbishment in Iran, they discovered GPS tracking devices on them.

 

[FUB]

Israelis are the best at psy, info and cognitive warfare, so we can doubt these news but not deny them 100%.........

You mean the NSA . Imagine having a military industrial complex that spends $1 trillion annually for defense and all of it is in control of a tiny little state .

Israel did not and does not have the capacity to engage in this long distance war. It’s the US that watches all the air defense movements in Iran. They have many satellites and offices, specifically dedicated to watch Iran 24/7.

You have all of these supposed speakers who are formal Intel officers on different social media platforms, exposing the truth. But it is all just a misdirection play. Probably to smoke out the real opposition or to get dummies recruited for the next staged attack.
There was an incident a few years back which involved the governor of Michigan. Some of the defendants did not accept a plea deal and were defending themselves.
The trial exposed the entire operation was entrapment, and the ring leader was a kid that had severe autism, unemployed and living in his parents basement .They were prosecuting this individual and the others . They were facing 20 years behind bars .
Majority of co-conspirators were either law-enforcement or informants.

X and other social media platforms specially Meta are crawling with individuals tied to intel organizations.

Here is a succinct explanation from Wiki Which is a tool itself .

Operation Mockingbird - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Persian Gulf]

having the capability is another. And the US has destroyed our capability to produce a nuclear bomb (assuming there were no undisclosed sites with clandestine activities).

a lot of the past undisclosed sites were known to the Israelis and they bombed those too (e.g., "Taleghan-2")

but it is interesting that a day before these attacks Eslami said we have a new secret enrichment site which is ready ... some Twitter OSINT sources say it is a site in Qazvin which is 150-200m under mountain (2x depth of Fordow, without the ridiculous vertical ventilation shaft). but if this was actually active with centrifuges I imagine we would have heard about it by now. there is also Natanz-2 of course which was not attacked, but it seems that is also not yet operational. if we didn't already install centrifuges in these sites or have some in secure locations then our ability to add new centrifuges now is likely severely impeded for several months.

We still have 3 more years of Trump, and if he becomes successful and restores "the greatness" of America, there's a high chance that the next US president would be more of the same. Let's not forget that the attacks on Iran were viewed quite positively by the MAGA people in the US after they realized that not even a single American died and Iran didn't play to retaliate. It boosted the US reputation as the world's strongest country and that's all that these MAGA idiots want.

the worst thing is that a lot of the MAGA base was actually turning on Trump and calling on him not to attack Iran because Iran is strong not like Iraq and could inflict a lot of harm on the USA

unfortunately the IRI's weak response totally discredited those voices and lowered the threshold for Trump to support further action against Iran since no one can credibly argue that the US will suffer a price (do you really think any American gives a shit that a $15 million antenna in Qatar might be destroyed in response)

 

[Persian Gulf]

One day before Israel attacked Iran:

"A third uranium enrichment site that Iran announced as a countermeasure to a UN nuclear watchdog resolution has already been built and is ready to operate when equipped with machinery, the head of Iran’s atomic energy organisation Mohammad Eslami has told state media."

--> sadly means no centrifuges were installed yet @ShapurII

"Iran’s retaliation to any Israeli aggression will be “more forceful and destructive” than in past offensives, Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami told state media, after Tehran said it had been alerted of a potential attack."

--> interesting that he said we were alerted of a potential attack, which turned out to be true within 24 hours... but this didn't age well

Middle East crisis: Third Iranian nuclear enrichment site ready as UN says country not complying with its obligations – as it happened

Head of Iran’s atomic energy organisation says third site is ready to operate as UN watchdog finds Iran is not complying with obligations for first time in 20 years

www.theguardian.com

 

[Sarhang]

Yes the jews hide casualties but you cannot hide a "large city" being destroyed with "all the zionists living there being eliminated." That’s 10s of thousands of casualties. Unless this is some sort of mistranslation for a base or something, as I haven't listened to the original audio. Frankly he should have been removed from his post for making such a retarded statement. We need to get rid of all the blustering incompetents in the military.

These statements are being produced for the domestic audience. No joke but people actually believe them. Their propagandists on social media obviously know the truth but they have a "task" and that is to speak positively and downplay anything that portrays the IR in a negative light.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

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[ShapurII]

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[vmro]

Yes, the jews hide casualties but you cannot hide a "large city" being destroyed with "all the zionists living there being eliminated." That’s 10s of thousands of casualties. Unless this is some sort of mistranslation for a base or something, as I haven't listened to the original audio. Frankly, he should have been removed from his post for making such a retarded statement. We need to get rid of all the blustering incompetents in the military.

But their own presented number of casualties is about 3,000 Israelis and 5,000 Iranians... and tens of thousands "affected", whatever that means...

While their tactical skills are undeniable, also no doubt that they were counter-punched far beyond their expectations....

And if they really spent their decades long created spy networks in Iran, this is by no means "easily" got achievement...