Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Immortals said:
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Israel had been practicing this for years. Attacking from Azeribajian. Raisi was also killed while flying over the mountains in that same region.

Iran spent so much time and effort focused on the Western border of Iran that they left North/Northwest border regions weak to intrusion.

The attack on Shahrud during the True Promise events also was rumored to have been cruise missiles coming from Caspian Sea.

The fact that had not completely saturated that region with radars and jammers shows the gross incompetence of this government.
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did Iranian radars and air defences perform well anywhere in Iran, even in West Iran where we would expect them to be concentrated?

Tehran was one of the most protected areas of Iran. yet Iran cannot apparently produce a single shred of evidence that Israeli jets penetrated Iranian airspace and attacked Tehran daily from the north / Caspian. weird. this is not to suggest that Israeli jets did not do this, but to suggest that Iranian radars were ineffective across the country.

all these OTH radars couldn't detect > 100 Israeli fighter jets take off from Israel, fly across Syria, and fly across Iraq (even assuming they did not enter Iranian airspace from day 1)? after Iranian military officials told us they were watching the enemy's every move 24/7? sure Iran is mountainous which limits radar range, but surely this was taken into account. something about this stinks.

15-20 mins before the first attacks in Tehran, random twitter accounts were posting videos of Israeli jets over Iraq. So imagine that even I, a nobody, had reason to believe that Israeli jets were flying over Iraq at least 20 minutes in advance. But Iranian military with all their OTH radars etc did not know?

next time they should hire someone to follow random military accounts on twitter so they get a 20 minute warning, seems to be more effective than their radars.
 
Immortals said:
www.foreignaffairs.com

The Path to a Good-Enough Iran Deal

How Washington and Tehran can bridge the gap on enrichment.
www.foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com

Decent article on the crossroads we are at and what negotiations could look like
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the core issue remains enrichment in Iran. the path forward suggested here is the US suddenly conceding this issue and agreeing to a JCPOA+ (without sunsets and stricter provisions across the board).

but Iran has little leverage now that the US showed it could fly through central Iran, hit Iran's biggest nuclear sites, and leave before Iran even knew anything happened. the US was much more serious about this red line that we thought, and after it has destroyed Fordow and Natanz it is not likely to suddenly make a unilateral concession from a position of strength.

the only way Iran can restore leverage is to covertly distribute the unaccounted for centrifuges across dozens of small hardened sites across the country. plus some laser enrichment sites. sure, Israel and the US could detect the vast majority of these sites - but not all.

and the next time the US attacks Iran, Iran has to fire back hard and kill Americans. not just fire 10 missiles at an already empty US base in Iraq or Qatar and hit a few empty buildings so its supporters can cope that we responded. the immediate costs would be much larger, but we have to make the Americans believe we are willing to risk a full-scale war with the US to protect our interests.
 
Persian Gulf said:
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very dangerous times @ShapurII
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Iran has been shrinking slowly for centuries. It's better to get used to the idea that it will be further reduced to ethnic Persian areas only so it's not as much of a shock. There is no serious opposition to IR and they are not interested in saving the country. It will be Yugoslavia 2.0.
 
BigMela2onin said:
Iran has been shrinking slowly for centuries. It's better to get used to the idea that it will be further reduced to ethnic Persian areas only so it's not as much of a shock. There is no serious opposition to IR and they are not interested in saving the country. It will be Yugoslavia 2.0.
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Persia was a multi-ethnic empire and Iranians remain patriotic. These separatist groups are significant but not critical. MEK and PJAK are much weaker than they used to be. Losing 5 border officers in Balochistan every few weeks is a tragedy but not a sign that Jundollah are about to conquer the province.

But, revolutions are unpredictable and all our enemies will exploit any chaos to weaken us forever. In any event, I don't think IRI is on the brink just yet. the IRI is totally guided by its survival and this is probably even more true now than before the war.
 
Persian Gulf said:
Persia was a multi-ethnic empire and Iranians remain patriotic. These separatist groups are significant but not critical. MEK and PJAK are much weaker than they used to be. Losing 5 border officers in Balochistan every few weeks is a tragedy but not a sign that Jundollah are about to conquer the province.

But, revolutions are unpredictable and all our enemies will exploit any chaos to weaken us forever. In any event, I don't think IRI is on the brink just yet. the IRI is totally guided by its survival and this is probably even more true now than before the war.
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Doesn't matter how patriotic Iranians are when facing the western genocide machine, IR has deprived Iran of the ability to defend itself. Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan will take territory by force under western air cover. Turkey may protest Kurdish expansion but will settle for bombing intermittently like they do now. West will probably directly occupy Arab areas and oil fields. We probably don't need to worry about Balochistan too much. I wouldn't be surprised if UAE takes the opportunity to occupy tonb e kuchak and bozorg.
 
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Pezeshkian showing up late to the SCO summit indirectly tells us that, short of a miracle, Iran's fate is already sealed. khamenei and the reformists destroyed our nation.
 
Immortals said:
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Israel had been practicing this for years. Attacking from Azeribajian. Raisi was also killed while flying over the mountains in that same region.

Iran spent so much time and effort focused on the Western border of Iran that they left North/Northwest border regions weak to intrusion.

The attack on Shahrud during the True Promise events also was rumored to have been cruise missiles coming from Caspian Sea.

The fact that had not completely saturated that region with radars and jammers shows the gross incompetence of this government.
Click to expand...

Time will come to pay back the azergayjani government.... for now, let us see how our govt protects Northern borders
 
BigMela2onin said:
Doesn't matter how patriotic Iranians are when facing the western genocide machine, IR has deprived Iran of the ability to defend itself. Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan will take territory by force under western air cover. Turkey may protest Kurdish expansion but will settle for bombing intermittently like they do now. West will probably directly occupy Arab areas and oil fields. We probably don't need to worry about Balochistan too much. I wouldn't be surprised if UAE takes the opportunity to occupy tonb e kuchak and bozorg.
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Azerbaijan Iraqi Kurdistan and UAE don't have the capabilities to launch offensive wars of conquest
 
BigMela2onin said:
Iran has been shrinking slowly for centuries. It's better to get used to the idea that it will be further reduced to ethnic Persian areas only so it's not as much of a shock. There is no serious opposition to IR and they are not interested in saving the country. It will be Yugoslavia 2.0.
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I read a lot of weird comments but this one wins the contest hands up .....
 
Hassan Al-Somal said:
It was not Israel alone that attacked and fought against Iran. The Western powers did to Iran the same thing they did to Libya. The jamming of the Iranian communications, including the radars, came from the Western installations in Iran's neighborhood. So if radars are not able to capture objects in the air, the Iranian ADS could not have done much other than relying on what can be seen from the air through the naked eye.

Second, Iran was attacked by an invisible, terrorist army who was inside Iran. Imagine the operator of the Iranian ADS and missile TEL (transporter erector launcher) who was being attacked from the ground and not outside Iranian borders. This menace handicapped Iranian ADS and missile attacks.

Third, most of the Western air forces were also confronting Iranian missile and drone attacks over the airspaces of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. The efforts the Western powers put up to protect the child-killing state of Israel is unbelievable.

Under those circumstances, Iran still managed to rebel the attack, and forced the Israelis and Western powers to seek ceasefire during the round 1 attack. Israel was not alone in this conflict and will not be alone in any future conflict with Iran.
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Actually after only 4 to 5 days iran started reversing the situation, catching spies, restoring partly the air defences, striking back, etc... so quite a good response.
But for the next attack, we shouldn't be tricked or surprised anymore
 
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