Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[Persian Gulf]

Would give it more than 3 weeks before you declare mission accomplished.

Iran/Israel go into lulls. And Iran has reportedly done another rotational pull of advisors out of Syria. Need to see the next 3 -6 months to see what will happen.

The question is next time 2-3 high ranking IRGC officers decide to huddle together to smoke Hookah and eat kabobs in Damascus, will Israel attack or refrain? That’s when it will be clear if deterrence has been established or not.

we know consulates/embassies are a red line but we don't know that IRGC forces outside of consulates in Syria (etc) are also a red line. iran claimed they would be but we know iranian red lines are very flexible and iranian officials can't really be trusted.

 

[jauk]

Who told you first on here that the number of missiles launched was a lie? Who told you the number was likely less than 30?

No 30 CMs, No 110 BMs, not even 100 drones (MP is lieing).

You will see in time.

I never believed Zionist propaganda. The real numbers Iran brought to bear was far far less. 120 drones maybe. But prolly total 10s of CMs and BMs at most.

Given the converging waves tactic Iran implemented the outcome is clear. This was a huge Iranian win and with far less interceptions and far less numbers of objects. $1.3B in one night is not a joke expenditure by Zionia and its friends.

 

[tsunset]

I never believed Zionist propaganda. The real numbers Iran brought to bear was far far less. 120 drones maybe. But prolly total 10s of CMs and BMs at most.

Given the converging waves tactic Iran implemented the outcome is clear. This was a huge Iranian win and with far less interceptions and far less numbers of objects. $1.3B in one night is not a joke expenditure by Zionia and its friends.

130 drones
17 missiles

Is realistic

This means 20% interception of BMs if we refer to the 9 impacts admitted by Israel

 

[Persian Gulf]

130 drones
17 missiles

Is realistic

This means 20% interception of BMs if we refer to the 9 impacts admitted by Israel

those 9 impacts were clearly missiles

9/17 is 53%

we saw almost 17 missile launches in the videos released, so I think it's a bit more than that

 

[jauk]

These are false defections and not big think.

By far the most important numbers are (in order): 1. The rate of depletion, 2. The costs of interception. And lastly by far 3. Rate of interception.

Once depleted the opponent can’t intercept a kite.

THAT is the lesson that should be taken away rather than the childish and shortsighted bean counting of the rate of interception which is by far last on the list.

Any future war will be a race between rate of depletion vs rate of destruction of sources of PRODUCTION. Which Iranian underground cities fall in line with.

As soon as ANY Iranian object is in the air the opponent has lost. Period.

The only other way for the opponent to defeat Iranian strategy is to increase the rate of their production AND reduce their costs by orders of magnitude. That combination is unlikely as far as I can see. Lasers and such included.

 

[Immortals]

Remember that at least a few missiles had Penetration aids/bomblets to cause noise.

Back in WW2 bombers experimented on dropping aluminum shavings to cause noise on radar screens as they floated slowly to the ground.

17 missiles is very reasonable consider Al-Assad was 13-14 missiles. Israeli media said US fired only 8 interceptors which means 2 per missile = 4 missiles total and only hit 1 (allegedly)

Also this was the first official to say they targeted the Golan heights. Maybe 5 to Golan heights, 7 to Nevatim and 5 to Ramon assuming the numbers are accurate.

I mean seriously if Iran fired off 110 missile we would be in the middle of a war right now wether intercepted or not. Plus 110 missiles would have wiped Ramon and Nevatim off the map.

 

[Garcia Sea]

The confusion seems to be caused by the confusion between the number of boosters on the missile and the number of warheads.
Any way you look at it, 130 boosters is not possible, the wreckage found is too small.
It is clear that the estimate of 130 warheads arose from counting the numerous cluster warheads and decoys deployed in the air individually.

In the video, after numerous cluster warheads and decoys rained down,
It can be seen that 10 warheads of a certain power +α flew in, of which 2 to 3 were intercepted in the atmosphere.
If we consider that there are only 20 to 30 warheads in the main mission and the rest are decoys.
The claim that a large number of warheads were successfully intercepted and the claim that a relatively high percentage of the main warheads reached their targets are consistent.

 

[Persian Gulf]

17 missiles is very reasonable consider Al-Assad was 13-14 missiles. Israeli media said US fired only 8 interceptors which means 2 per missile = 4 missiles total and only hit 1 (allegedly)

if 2 / 8 were successful that means they intercepted 2 missiles not 1

Also this was the first official to say they targeted the Golan heights. Maybe 5 to Golan heights, 7 to Nevatim and 5 to Ramon assuming the numbers are accurate.

I mean seriously if Iran fired off 110 missile we would be in the middle of a war right now wether intercepted or not. Plus 110 missiles would have wiped Ramon and Nevatim off the map.

well the US says half of them failed so c. 50 actually made it near Israel, of those c. 40 intercepted and the rest impacted. those numbers seem somewhat plausible (but on the high end)

 

[TopGun786]

Reports seem to be giving the apartheid state and genocide coalition's ABM's a bad name. We are going from near 100% interception to only 25% of US interceptors doing anything.

Where is the Raptor boy?
He was claiming 110% interceptions.

 

[Immortals]

The confusion seems to be caused by the confusion between the number of boosters on the missile and the number of warheads.

No, the confusion is Iran had set up TELs numbering likely 75+ ready to fire because they had to anticipate the event that Israel would attempt a massive counter strike or US got involved (regardless how unlikely). This is confirmed by Hajizadeh when he said that they had many more missiles ready in case things escalated.

But one of the most earliest western intelligence sources leaked that more than half of the missiles did not “fire” and cited them as “failing”. Which is misleading military talk, technically it’s true since they armed and “hot”, but reality is false. Thus my belief is they counted every missile that was armed and ready to fire that didn’t fire as part of the attack. Thus they were counted as interceptions even though they failed to fire.

Lastly I also think to your point they also counted boosters either by error (satellite infrared detecting launches) or on purpose.

if 2 / 8 were successful that means they intercepted 2 missiles not 1

Not necessarily true because standard operating protocol for both PAC-3 and SM-3 is to fire 2 missiles per target. So if both missiles hit they likely were hitting the same target. It’s possible each 2 Missile interceptor salvo failed to intercept their corresponding missile, then yes it would be 2 missiles.

well the US says half of them failed so c. 50 actually made it near Israel, of those c. 40 intercepted and the rest impacted. those numbers seem somewhat plausible (but on the high end)

More than half. And the devil is in the details, the report in fog of war said more than half “failed to launch”. My theory is they were counting the TELs on standby in case Israel did a major counter attack.

Of course iran didn’t have only 15-20 TEL teams ready because it takes time to pull TELs out of bases and pull teams to sites and call up crews. Remember Emads and Qadr are liquid fueled and thus need to be Fueled prior to launch and that takes typically 45 mins-2 hours including the added surveying done by the celestial surveyor on these older missiles. Launch time varies depending on the generation missile that was used.

Furthermore, protocol is it fuel when at the launch site not at the base due to [obvious] safety concerns ie static discharge. Although it’s possible iran decided to skirt these rules to expedite the launch, but I think the fact the attack took so long was likely due to having to fuel all these missiles as contingencies. Fueling 100+ missiles likely took teams days working around the clock.

Thus logically they had to already be prepared to counter fire if Israel decided to launch a major attack no matter what the Intel showed prior.

I don’t believe that 50+ missiles were fired, we found all 3 Israeli boosters in Iraq, so failing in flight means Iraq and we would have had pics. Second everyone in Iran has a cellphone and we would have seen pictures or videos of massive salvos streaking over the sky’s of iran and southern Iraq like we did when Solemani attack was launched (we got a lot of civilian footage).

Yet during this launch it was very few and most were from Iraq.

So logically without booster evidence, without video evidence, and without official statements from IRGC, we cannot conclude that the launch happened as western propaganda (and IRGC complicity by remaining silent) say it did.

 

[Flames In The Desert]

Where is the Raptor boy?
He was claiming 110% interceptions.

He suddenly remembered he had to urgently give his f-22 the equivalent of a pelvic exam...

 

[UKBengali]

Would give it more than 3 weeks before you declare mission accomplished.

Iran/Israel go into lulls. And Iran has reportedly done another rotational pull of advisors out of Syria. Need to see the next 3 -6 months to see what will happen.

The question is next time 2-3 high ranking IRGC officers decide to huddle together to smoke Hookah and eat kabobs in Damascus, will Israel attack or refrain? That’s when it will be clear if deterrence has been established or not.

Again excellent points.

Maybe I am jumping the gun but the entity would have been emboldened to have carried out even more attacks on lower-level Iranian targets in Syria if they really thought they were immune to Iranian retaliation. It would be like the entity demonstrating that it has absolutely no fear of Iran after the Iranian attack and can act as it wishes and with total impunity.

It was made crystal clear that Iran can hit targets at will in Occupied Palestine and it would be too easy for Iran to take out that multi-billion US dollar radar in Southern Palestine at first, and so making the little defence they have against the sophisticated Iranian ballistic missiles even more weaker.

 

[SolarWarden]

Interesting read with some data provided:

I don't get you trying to shut this thread down but still participating in it? Why do you want it shut down? Why can't you just leave yourself and let the ones who want to post continue to post?

 

[SolarWarden]

Israel is not going to attack Iran without first taking care of hezbollah. Israel is going to degrade hezbollah's rocket capability as much as possible before hitting Iran, not that Israel is planning on bombing Iran but Israel is getting prepared and for that hezbollah needs to be severely degraded. hezbollah attacking Israel after October 7th attack by hamas has given them the opportunity/excuse to settle all scores.

 

[jauk]

I don't get you trying to shut this thread down but still participating in it? Why do you want it shut down? Why can't you just leave yourself and let the ones who want to post continue to post?

Ahhh…the mystery.