Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah downs Israeli Skylark drone using electronic warfare

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Israeli seriously injured by recent Hezbollah rocket fire into north Israel

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[jauk]

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[Immortals]

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[RescueRanger]

It seems that Iran wants to cancel this plan
View attachment 33454

Sorry bother I just can’t accept that map- need to make a tiny adjustment



That’s better!

 

[Immortals]

IAEA still has some monitoring, so Iran can't enrich to 90% without them knowing. the question is how long is the delay between Iran taking such a step and the IAEA realising it

Inspectors are still on the ground and inspecting routinely. IAEA just lost live video feed and the access to the recording.

Either way, if Iran is going to make a dash they wouldn’t use that stockpile. They likely have a uranium pre-2004 hidden away enough for a 1-3 weapons for testing. Thus all they need is a small pilot enirichment facility that is mothballed and hidden that less than 10-20 people know about (including scientists involved). Iran would feed the uranium (assuming it’s already been converted to yellowcake) to these and race to the bomb.

Do the detonation somewhere. Then afterwards it can use the IAEA well known and monitored enriched uranium stockpile to build its arsenal.

The question becomes does Iran have hidden uranium stockpile from prior to revealing of its nuclear program and does it have a secret enrichment facility that has never been found or mentioned.

 

[jauk]

I do. But not going to jinx it. The time it’s taking is very telling. To me.

I believe any retaliation is either not going to satisfy the Lollipop Guild (I.e Iran unnecessarily bowing to irrational public opinion) or it’s going to be dramatic to an extent not discussed here.

Hint.

Not exactly at all, however along the broad lines of what I’ve been thinking as part of a hybrid counter strike:

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[jauk]

Inspectors are still on the ground and inspecting routinely. IAEA just lost live video feed and the access to the recording.

Either way, if Iran is going to make a dash they wouldn’t use that stockpile. They likely have a uranium pre-2004 hidden away enough for a 1-3 weapons for testing. Thus all they need is a small pilot enirichment facility that is mothballed and hidden that less than 10-20 people know about (including scientists involved). Iran would feed the uranium (assuming it’s already been converted to yellowcake) to these and race to the bomb.

Do the detonation somewhere. Then afterwards it can use the IAEA well known and monitored enriched uranium stockpile to build its arsenal.

The question becomes does Iran have hidden uranium stockpile from prior to revealing of its nuclear program and does it have a secret enrichment facility that has never been found or mentioned.

Correct. Note, a detonation is not required to achieve 90%+ (perhaps more) confidence.

 

[Immortals]

Correct. Note, a detonation is not required to achieve 90%+ (perhaps more) confidence.

Correct, Detonation is not needed in era of supercomputer simulations. Israel never did one. detonation is to establish MAD.

Nukes that no one knows you have, has very low utility in this world. You don’t build nukes to use them, you build them to remind your enemy it cannot cross the ultimate redline (existential sovereignty).

 

[Trisolaran]

Iran's retaliation against Israel

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To be serious, what destroyed Iran's seriousness were the unofficial Iranian channels in Telegram with ridiculous animations and countdown on Israel.

 

[Flotilla]

Inspectors are still on the ground and inspecting routinely. IAEA just lost live video feed and the access to the recording.

Either way, if Iran is going to make a dash they wouldn’t use that stockpile. They likely have a uranium pre-2004 hidden away enough for a 1-3 weapons for testing. Thus all they need is a small pilot enirichment facility that is mothballed and hidden that less than 10-20 people know about (including scientists involved). Iran would feed the uranium (assuming it’s already been converted to yellowcake) to these and race to the bomb.

Do the detonation somewhere. Then afterwards it can use the IAEA well known and monitored enriched uranium stockpile to build its arsenal.

The question becomes does Iran have hidden uranium stockpile from prior to revealing of its nuclear program and does it have a secret enrichment facility that has never been found or mentioned.

Moreover I read in The Diplomat some years ago that after destroying the cameras the IAEA lost some valuable weeks over the places, and some centrifuges were dismantled, so those few weeks after Trump´s exit of the nuclear deal allowed Iran to install in other places out of the control of Rafael Grosi some centrifuges. I am pretty sure Iran is gaining some time for allowing the completion of a half of dozen nuclear devices. And probably Israel and US knows about it.

 

[tsunset]

@Immortals

How would Israel be able to bomb civilian sites 500-1000km inside Iran without using nearby airbases?

How would they refuel mid air? Is Israel to Iran directly via refueling option viable for them? Also what weapons would F-35 carry from such a distance?

I'm seeing everywhere "Israel is going to destroy Iran", but they don't seem to understand how far Iran and its mainland are from Israel

 

[Persian Gulf]

Inspectors are still on the ground and inspecting routinely. IAEA just lost live video feed and the access to the recording.

Either way, if Iran is going to make a dash they wouldn’t use that stockpile. They likely have a uranium pre-2004 hidden away enough for a 1-3 weapons for testing. Thus all they need is a small pilot enirichment facility that is mothballed and hidden that less than 10-20 people know about (including scientists involved). Iran would feed the uranium (assuming it’s already been converted to yellowcake) to these and race to the bomb.

Do the detonation somewhere. Then afterwards it can use the IAEA well known and monitored enriched uranium stockpile to build its arsenal.

The question becomes does Iran have hidden uranium stockpile from prior to revealing of its nuclear program and does it have a secret enrichment facility that has never been found or mentioned.

I think I read inspectors detected iran had enriched to c. 84% some time after it had happened, so there might be a delay in the time they need to measure enrichment of samples

hidden small sites seem unlikely given extent of Israeli infiltration and MEK treason

 

[Mehdipersian]

Iran's retaliation against Israel

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To be serious, what destroyed Iran's seriousness were the unofficial Iranian channels in Telegram with ridiculous animations and countdown on Israel.

This is just the first step. You will see the next steps soon

 

[jauk]

Correct, Detonation is not needed in era of supercomputer simulations. Israel never did one. detonation is to establish MAD.

Nukes that no one knows you have, has very low utility in this world. You don’t build nukes to use them, you build them to remind your enemy it cannot cross the ultimate redline (existential sovereignty).

No … simulations take you only that far. All you need is dense core of another element for a PHYSICAL simulation.

I had a post about this exactly. Unfortunately might be lost (?).

 

[Fasbre2]

@Immortals

How would Israel be able to bomb civilian sites 500-1000km inside Iran without using nearby airbases?

How would they refuel mid air? Is Israel to Iran directly via refueling option viable for them? Also what weapons would F-35 carry from such a distance?

I'm seeing everywhere "Israel is going to destroy Iran", but they don't seem to understand how far Iran and its mainland are from Israel

Don’t forget B2 , more than capable of hitting all Iranian sites at one go..