Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[ToddE]

The time to attack was after 10/3 when Israel started committing genocide in Gaza and there were even protests in U.S. campuses across the nation and the world had turned on Israel.

Iran should have used the pretext of genocide for a preemptive strike on Israel. Israel was scared and cornered thinking there was a multi front war starting. Instead Israel sent messages to Iran/HZ thru US that it would not attack them if they did not attack. Iran fell for it. Raisi and his FM gave fake threats and redlines all day.

That was when Iran had HZ, Syria, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi militias…everyone at full strength. Even here users were scared about confronting Israel.

Well look at now. NO Hamas, No Syria, No HZ, Iraqi PMUs are out of the conflict, and was badly attacked. 30 years building an “Axis of Resistance” to only not use it and lose it in a couple of years.

So much good “strategic patience” did. Now protests are starting up again and the Toman continues collapsing.

Tough to see how IRI makes it out of this one. No real allies left. China and Russia ain’t coming to the rescue.

Iran has zero stake in levant. Its opposition to Israel is meaningless for Iranian nation. Whatever leads to fall of AoR, I say good riddance, this Islamo-Marxist revolutionary system is inherently dysfunctional. Earlier it ends, the better for Iran.

 

[Immortals]

My God, its all arguing with teenagers, yes...yes...yes! That's what im saying...they expected us to collapse, not hit back. Mark this!
They never expected that the iron dome will be penetrated, they never expected that the THAADs would be depleted so quickly.
This is what im saying...now prove those points wrong, if you can.
Ill wait.....

What are you talking about?

2012

Defense Ministry experts predict 300 Israeli fatalities in war with Iran, Syria

Ministry Prediction in Line With Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Previous Statement.

www.haaretz.com

2019

IDF chief warns Israelis: The next war will hit our home front extremely hard

Top military commander vows Israel will block Iranian threats 'even at risk of war,' laments IDF is alone in fight against Tehran

www.timesofisrael.com

2021

Israel launches drill to test preparedness of home front in case of war

Week-long exercise will emulate war with Iran and Hezbollah, including missile strikes, mass evacuation of civilians from border region, and violent racial riots in mixed Jewish Arab areas; rocket alert sirens will be heard across the country

www.ynetnews.com

2022

IDF drills for multi-front war, including 1,500 rockets a day fired from Lebanon

During monthlong exercise simulating war against Hezbollah on northern frontier, military prepares for heavy damage, hundreds of casualties, and finds issues with logistics

www.timesofisrael.com

At bleak conference, officials warn Israel unprepared to deal with major emergency

Senior cop says force unable to provide 'comprehensive response' to ethnic unrest; IDF chief threatens Lebanon: 'Power of our attacks will be something you've never seen'

www.timesofisrael.com

2023

IDF wraps up major drill focused on multi-front war with Iran, Middle East proxies

'Firm Hand' exercises include lengthy ground combat on Lebanon front, hundreds of aircraft carrying out mock strikes 'deep in enemy territory,' cyber warfare

www.timesofisrael.com

There was dozens of articles of Israel knowing the cost of war with Iran/HZ was going to be much worse then actually played out. If they didn’t expect Iran to hit back then they would attacked in 2007/2008 when the best Iranian air defense system was TOR-M1. So clearly they were worried about Iranian response.

However, The lack of response to Solemani asssination and countless other assassinations. And the pathetic TP1 & TP2 responses were so weak that it emboldened the fanatics in Israel to go after Iran realizing that its intelligence agencies overestimated the threat from Iran and its willingness to use lethal force.

The loss of Solemani was the beginning of the end for Iran and for the Axis. Sending that man to useless frontlines unprotected was the dumbest decision this leadership ever did.

 

[Immortals]

Iran has zero stake in levant. Its opposition to Israel is meaningless for Iranian nation. Whatever leads to fall of AoR, I say good riddance, this Islamo-Marxist revolutionary system is inherently dysfunctional. Earlier it ends, the better for Iran.

The problem is whatever comes next is likely going to be a Syria-like weak government that gets all its facilities and capabilities bombed to bits by Israel (and maybe US and others) the second the Iranian “revolution” happens under the pre text of preventing weapon storages and military technologies being transferred to “terrorist groups”.

This isn’t 2500 years ago where one Persian Empire falls and another rises to take its place. Or even China falling to communism and the liberal government fleeing to Taiwan. Or even the Vietnam war where U.S. left and the government over time simply moderated their position.

If Iran collapses whether from a ‘white flag’ agreement with US or from some quasi revolution, Iran will become a failed country (geopolitical) for decades to come. It will exploited by Turks, Russias, Americans, Israelis, PG Arabs, Chinese all jockeying for power just like what you see in Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc.

 

[mangekyo]

Iran has zero stake in levant. Its opposition to Israel is meaningless for Iranian nation. Whatever leads to fall of AoR, I say good riddance, this Islamo-Marxist revolutionary system is inherently dysfunctional. Earlier it ends, the better for Iran.

I agree it has no value for Iran. But there is no clean exit. IRI crossed a threshold by building proxies and directly challenging the US and Israel. Things do not reset just because the Axis is dead. Challenging the US and Israel has consequences. Once that threshold is crossed, simply backing off is no longer possible. This kind of conflict does not reverse. Even if a president distances himself from AIPAC, IRI cannot rebuild its proxies fast enough before US policy swings back. Without Syria, that door is closed.

What we are seeing now is a real war of attrition. And even China cannot outlast the US in a war of attrition. In practice, pressure continues until one side is eliminated. There is absolutely no way US backs down until either Iran or Israel is eliminated.

It might sound too extreme. But Iran is a big country with oil, gas, people, and pride. Capability itself is the problem. I just don’t see a future where the Israelis shake hands with any Iranian government. The genie is out of the bottle. IRIs only bet is to eliminate Israel or get eliminated. But it’s a bit too late to build the bomb now.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Iran will become a failed country (geopolitical) for decades to come.

Iran has already been a failed country for several centuries now.

This isn’t 2500 years ago where one Persian Empire falls and another rises to take its place.

There have been no "Persian" empires for 1000+ years now. Just various central Asian tribes taking turns ruling the country.

It will exploited by Turks, Russias, Americans, Israelis, PG Arabs, Chinese all jockeying for power just like what you see in Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc.

Would such a situation be more beneficial for the west than Iran's existence as is? If the answer is yes, then world powers will make it so and Iranians can do nothing about it. If the answer is no, then IR will last forever.

 

[mangekyo]

Would such a situation be more beneficial for the west than Iran's existence as is? If the answer is yes, then world powers will make it so and Iranians can do nothing about it. If the answer is no, then IR will last forever.

It might be good for Israel, but it would be a disaster for the US. They would have to send troops to prevent a power vacuum. Iran is large and rich in natural wealth, they can’t risk Russia, China, or even Turkey stepping in.

Also, if Iran is no longer a threat, the US loses much of its leverage over PG Arabs. Managing oil flows and regional balance would become much harder.

But US foreign policy is dictated by AIPAC these days. So you never know.

 

[Falcon29]

The US Air Force base in Bahrain.. what could it be other than Thaad interceptors…

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[BigMela2onin]

It might be good for Israel, but it would be a disaster for the US. They would have to send troops to prevent a power vacuum. Iran is large and rich in natural wealth, they can’t risk Russia, China, or even Turkey stepping in.

Spending money enriching the military industrial complex and jews is the sole purpose of the US. It will be straightforward to send troops to occupy resources like in Syria.

Also, if Iran is no longer a threat, the US loses much of its leverage over PG Arabs. Managing oil flows and regional balance would become much harder.

The plan is for the jews to wipe out all other ethnic groups more or less. No need for balancing anything. The Qatar attack was a glimpse of things to come.

But US foreign policy is dictated by AIPAC these days. So you never know.

Yes it is.

 

[kastor ville]

Iron domes job is to intercept HAMAS rockets, not BMs from Iran. They have arrow for that. But let me see if you are being honest or just coping.

If Iran launches a decapacitation strike on Israel. Kills ALL their highest ranking commanders and even many of their successors. Flies sorties over Haifa and Tel Aviv non stop for 12 consecutive days dropping tons of bombs. Kills more than 1000 Israelis. Wipes out Israel’s nuclear program to such a degree that the Israelis come out and say «we don’t know where our uranium is.» Hits Ben Gurion, Ramon and Haifa airport. Destroys dozens of F35s, F16s and F18s on ground before they are even able to take off. Netanyahu goes missing for days. Their head of NSC is assumed dead for days. Shall I cobtknue?.. In return Israel is able to shoot some missiles past 3rd of khordad and Bavar. Would you say Iran lost, Israel deterred Iran? Be honest.

Both you and @Immortals missed fhe point.....they wanted to collapse Iran...they never thought Iran's military could regroup and hit back....
You guys keep posting how many times they hit us or how hard...it's a moot point, ther first objective failed. And in return they got the deterrence that they never asked for.
I know they've been hitting us for a decade. And I've been blaming the old man for that too.

 

[kastor ville]

The time to attack was after 10/3 when Israel started committing genocide in Gaza and there were even protests in U.S. campuses across the nation and the world had turned on Israel.

Iran should have used the pretext of genocide for a preemptive strike on Israel. Israel was scared and cornered thinking there was a multi front war starting. Instead Israel sent messages to Iran/HZ thru US that it would not attack them if they did not attack. Iran fell for it. Raisi and his FM gave fake threats and redlines all day.

That was when Iran had HZ, Syria, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi militias…everyone at full strength. Even here users were scared about confronting Israel.

Well look at now. NO Hamas, No Syria, No HZ, Iraqi PMUs are out of the conflict, and was badly attacked. 30 years building an “Axis of Resistance” to only not use it and lose it in a couple of years.

So much good “strategic patience” did. Now protests are starting up again and the Toman continues collapsing.

Tough to see how IRI makes it out of this one. No real allies left. China and Russia ain’t coming to the rescue.

You can blame the old man for that failure. We've had a lot of setbacks.....for whatever reason the old man didn't want to respond. Big mistake...either way, it's hard to take on an empire.

 

[GWXP]

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US is very aggressive

another attack on Iran is inevitable. IRI cannot hide and wait it out this time

If US attacks Iranian nuclear program and missile program beyond single irrelevant strikes, Iran will target oil infrastructure of the Gulf countries and close the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb.

And here are consequences for US according to Google Gemini:






Currently Iran has 2000 medium-range ballistic missiles and 2000 shorter range missiles - 4000 missiles in total.

Recent reports say that Iran currently produces 200 missiles per month or 2400 missiles per year.

Iran should increase its missile arsenal to 14.000 missiles by 2030 and 20.000 missiles by 2035 and accelerate its nuclear program.

If US starts intercepting ammonium perchlorate shipments from China, Iran should intercept Western oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

[Flotilla]

Hezbollah targeted Tel Aviv on multiple occasions and Houthis targeted Tel Aviv almost every week

Successes are that we fired missiles at Israel? the majority of our defence budget for the last 25 years has gone to missiles so I would hope we could at least do that

Remember Haifa was nearly deleted from the map. At very least the most important refinery of the country.

 

[Flotilla]

If US starts intercepting ammonium perchlorate shipments from China, Iran should intercept Western oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nowadays there is open a railway line between china and Irán, so even in that eventuality some ammonium would arrive.

And, by the way, does everybody remember some Chinese flights just weeks after 12 day war to Irán?. Those were being done by Y20 aircrafts.

It is said that those aircrafts were transporting ammonium to Irán. That means that even just after israeli attacks, some building solid state ballistic missiles were still available and working.

 

[Flotilla]

The problem is whatever comes next is likely going to be a Syria-like weak government that gets all its facilities and capabilities bombed to bits by Israel (and maybe US and others) the second the Iranian “revolution” happens under the pre text of preventing weapon storages and military technologies being transferred to “terrorist groups”.

This isn’t 2500 years ago where one Persian Empire falls and another rises to take its place. Or even China falling to communism and the liberal government fleeing to Taiwan. Or even the Vietnam war where U.S. left and the government over time simply moderated their position.

If Iran collapses whether from a ‘white flag’ agreement with US or from some quasi revolution, Iran will become a failed country (geopolitical) for decades to come. It will exploited by Turks, Russias, Americans, Israelis, PG Arabs, Chinese all jockeying for power just like what you see in Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc.

Iran is much bigger than Syria. And the situation is far different to those of the Syrian civil war.

Israel is at the brink of political Split. Some israelí media have been talking even of Civil war. You have thousands of israelis fleeing from the country and using their second passport for abandoning the country. Even Israel have imported new jew indian settlers because the population is decreasing.

And that was just the first round. Second will be much worse if done.

 

[kastor ville]

Iran is much bigger than Syria. And the situation is far different to those of the Syrian civil war.

Israel is at the brink of political Split. Some israelí media have been talking even of Civil war. You have thousands of israelis fleeing from the country and using their second passport for abandoning the country. Even Israel have imported new jew indian settlers because the population is decreasing.

And that was just the first round. Second will be much worse if done.

Agreed.....
There is a news article about Trump wanting to talk.....I think we should engage. If nothing, just to hear their demands face to face...enough of this bs, we won't talk directly...this is childish. Trump is feeling adventurous, and he has a cabinet full of warmongers. In any case, there is no clear strategy from Iran, they're just holding on, and every year things are getting worse. The way I see it, reform or die.