Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Immortals said:
Let me be clear: iran has hit a dead end and is in its final throes of life. With Trump in power 3 more years, it’s unlikely Iran can wait it out without a miracle or a life line being thrown by China/Russia.
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seems like it. something has to give. I only hope that the costs and damage during any transitional period are kept to a minimum
 
Persian Gulf said:
seems like it. something has to give. I only hope that the costs and damage during any transitional period are kept to a minimum
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It’s a shame because you and many others saw the problems coming over a decade ago and accelerating, yet nothing was done.

This forum (and its predecessor) was just one big echo chamber of fanboys defending this leadership no matter what outcome happened.

Now we are here. Very disappointing.
 
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Immortals said:
Iet me be clear: iran has hit a dead end and is in its final throes of life. With Trump in power 3 more years, it’s unlikely Iran can wait it out without a miracle or a life line being thrown by China/Russia.
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Nether china nor Russia will intervene.
Iran have no value to these two countries

weather iran exist or not, the people or the resources on this land will not disappear.
 
Immortals said:
I am going to make a bold prediction which could very well be wrong. But I don’t think the Supreme Leader survives this year.

He is the obstacle to detente and he doesn’t want his legacy to be that Iran collapsed with his consent. This inflexibility will turn the factions of the republic against him. And they will determine he has to go.

So just like Rafsanjani had a “heart attack” in the swimming pool, the same mysterious outcome will happen for the leader, likely presented as passing from old age in his sleep. Let’s not forget Khomeini’s son also died under mysterious circumstances years ago. The factions are not afraid to kill off their own when it comes to Machiavelli level power games.

Time and time again in Roman history and Persian history, when the obstacle is one largely person….that obstacle is eliminated to give rise to a new path. Especially in a republic when factions jockey for power.

There was a IRGC commander who gave the interview a few years into the Syrian war who said the IRGC was divided on what to do with Assad when the capital was surrounded. Many thought that Iran should partner with the West in a deal to retain influence (à la Iraq post 2003) and then there was the camp who said they should prop up Assad. This camp ultimately won out as the SL also sided with this camp. The interview took place after the imminent threat to Assad was squashed (at the time) so it was positioned as the right decision.

My thoughts are knowing that the IRGC is not always unison in their thoughts. I think now the IRGC is gonna become more pragmatic and self serving. The camp that wanted to be involved in proxy groups and the Palestinian project are largely dead - Solemani and the cohorts that built the AoR all died in Syria, Lebanon, and in the 12 day war etc.

The survivors I believe have become much more pragmatic and nationalistic. You even see it in the billboards now across the country. I think the Axis of Resistance project is largely been considered a failure.

Trump wants an “easy” clean solution. He’s not interested in long messy conflicts. He has a short attention span. I think if the SL is taken care of. The government will reform itself as “moderate”. The clerics will be sent back to Qom. Hassan Khomeini (who is much more moderate) might become the figure head of the cleric side. The position of SL would be disbanded and it will go back to either a president or parliamentary system with a National Security council type transitional leadership.

The IRGC and Artesh will be rehabilitated as a new entity and packaged and sold as someone the US can do business with.

It is widely accepted now by even the U.S.. that the worst decision the U.S. made when invading Iraq was disbanding the entire Baathist party and Iraqi military rebuilding from scratch. It will try to avoid that in future cases and especially in Iran. It will keep the power structures in place and rehabilitate the state rather than nation building from scratch.

I think any agreement is basically the capitulation as stated above. Without the SL, I think the factions of the republic will vote to take the deal.

Let me be clear: iran has hit a dead end and is in its final throes of life. With Trump in power 3 more years, it’s unlikely Iran can wait it out without a miracle or a life line being thrown by China/Russia.
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Well to be fair he could easily die of natural causes he’s 85? Ok @Mr Iran Eye had to sorry moving on but something has to change Iran is next one way or the other be it tomorrow or a year from now whatever they got going if they have anything going on at pickaxe mountain better be sped they better put whatever scientist they have left into building the mother of all crude nuke
 
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Persian Gulf said:
seems like it. something has to give. I only hope that the costs and damage during any transitional period are kept to a minimum
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There will be no transitional period. Whatever government comes to power in Iran is destined to go rogue eventually. This is not speculation. It is a pattern. The Shah went rogue in the 1970s. IRI went rogue immediately after the hostage takeovers. A unified and strong Iran will always be a major headache for world powers.

The United States knows this. Israel knows this. Europe knows this. Even Russia and China knows this. Any future Iranian state that regains strength and autonomy will eventually go rogue.

The likely result is fragmentation. It is entirely possible that you and I will not remain fellow countrymen for much longer.
 
mangekyo said:
There will be no transitional period. Whatever government comes to power in Iran is destined to go rogue eventually. This is not speculation. It is a pattern. The Shah went rogue in the 1970s. IRI went rogue immediately after the hostage takeovers. A unified and strong Iran will always be a major headache for world powers.

The United States knows this. Israel knows this. Europe knows this. Even Russia and China knows this. Any future Iranian state that regains strength and autonomy will eventually go rogue.

The likely result is fragmentation. It is entirely possible that you and I will not remain fellow countrymen for much longer.
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Dude why is everyone acting as if Iran is going to fall tomorrow I know I have brought up the whole Israel American attack is inevitable maybe not tomorrow but soon but this is not where the population would be rolling out the red carpet many would fight back be it in the initial stage or if this actually did become some kind of idiotic land invasion they couldn’t subjugate Afghanistan in 20 years they couldn’t in Iraq with the multiple factions they couldn’t in Syria so what do they think would be different with Iran bring some poor ass idiotic fake shah back please
 
Shadi hassan said:
Dude why is everyone acting as if Iran is going to fall tomorrow I know I have brought up the whole Israel American attack is inevitable maybe not tomorrow but soon but this is not where the population would be rolling out the red carpet many would fight back be it in the initial stage or if this actually did become some kind of idiotic land invasion they couldn’t subjugate Afghanistan in 20 years they couldn’t in Iraq with the multiple factions they couldn’t in Syria so what do they think would be different with Iran bring some poor ass idiotic fake shah back please
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The population can’t exactly fight back jets and bombers with ak47s.
 
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