Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations
- Thread starter jauk
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Immortals
Elite Member
This is false to say there are no negotiations just because they are stilling bringing in asssts. The only way the U.S. can pressue Khamenai is for him to truly believe that a strike is imminent if negotiations failed. That can only be done with a large military build up happening.
He didn’t believe it in June and Iran’s nuclear program got struck. Now there is both precedent from the 12 da war and a military build up for Round 2 if negotiation fail again. So he has to take it much more seriously and we will ultimately find out if Iran wants to negotiate seriously or is ready for war.
So the ball is in Iran’s court to basically either accept whatever terms the U.S. puts forth as final terms or be prepared for an extensive bombing campaign.
Bharatah
Registered Member
As I've been saying for weeks, there will be no open war because the US/Israel don't have the military capacity for it. At most, there will be a media operation, "Venezuela" style.
The excuses have already started to appear as to why nothing happened...and they will only increase.
NOTE: 15 days ago Reuters said that "Iran would be invaded within 24 hours"... 15 days passed and nothing happened. And about 5 days ago, Reuters said again "IMMINENT ATTACK", nothing happened again...All of this is just hybrid warfare strategy.
StrategicBear
Registered Member
Iran is a VERY HUGE country, bigger than the entire French mainland in Europe. It would be HIGHLY IMPOSSIBLE for US bombings to take out every ballistic missile and cruise missile launcher, every drone launching sites, all missile bases, all coastal launchers able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz all hidden and dispersed well within 6-12 hours. The US didn't have that ability in Yemen when fighting the Houthis, and won't have it against Iran too.
Meaning within the initial hours of a US strike, Iranian retaliation could happen quite quickly to close and shut down the Hormuz Strait with many oil tankers from all Gulf countries in flames and completely blocking it.
To unblock the Strait, US would have to commit to a long war to reopen it while at the same time still having to counter the Houthis which will close the Bab el-Mandeb, and Iraqi Resistance that will also join the fight against US Bases.
Meaning within the initial hours of a US strike, Iranian retaliation could happen quite quickly to close and shut down the Hormuz Strait with many oil tankers from all Gulf countries in flames and completely blocking it.
To unblock the Strait, US would have to commit to a long war to reopen it while at the same time still having to counter the Houthis which will close the Bab el-Mandeb, and Iraqi Resistance that will also join the fight against US Bases.
FUB
Trusted Member
This actually highlights the fact that Iran had the upper hand by end of the war . The military analysts who highlighted this fact were mocked by some by repeatedly showing strikes by miniature drones operated from Iran inside . A huge blunder was made by Iran . Iran should have continued for two more weeks . Iran could have extracted major concessions and we would not be here now . It is same as the Fatwa.
FUB
Trusted Member
They don’t want to negotiate. Iran negotiated for years and agreed to the JCPOA which was rattified by UN Security Council . Israel selected Trump to kill the JCPOA.
The IR is a result of the overthrow of Mossadegh . It was a populist uprising and the decoupling of CBI from the Rothchilds . They will never allow any nation to defy their global order
What is the difference between MBS and Khamenei ? Iran wants to be recognized as a sovereign nation and MBS is ok with being a slave .
You live here and you know the government is absolutely under the thumb of the Zios. Netanyaboo is making his sixth trip this month . Probably to threaten Trump .
Iran will not and can not accept to capitulate and relinquish the deterrence capability so Israel can bomb at will .
Khamenei destroyed the empire Soleimani built with his Fatwa. If the war went on for two more weeks, we would not be here right now.
How can Iran negotiate with the US?
Israel will not allow it . They are not threatening NK. As bad as the Biden administration was, they were not stupid enough to start a war with Iran.
What happened after the war ?
They can no longer monitor enrichment or the stockpile . That is not exactly a win . The new sat images show that they are building protection around the R&D halls of Natanz.
This means the halls below are intact.
Furthermore, Fordow is intact otherwise they wouldn’t be talking about the nuclear program that was supposedly obliterated.
MAGA is dead . Israel knows it . Once the Dems grab the house , Trump will be impeached and this time the Billionaire class might want to replace Him with Vance . The leftist Jews that will run the next administration are not too happy with the Zionists. The entire planet loathes Zionists and Israel . I don’t think they will have carte blanche control of the US war machine .No one knows what will happen next .
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Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
how can the Resistance help Iran in the event of an attack by the US?
Iraq:
- base case: PMU can attack US bases in Iraq to soften them up while Iran absorbs the initial blows and focuses on US destroyers / CSG and prepares missiles to attack Qatar
- long shot: PMU could also launch ground operations against US bases, which would be largely evacuated, or even the US embassy (they did this in 2019). it will keep the US busy and they risk embarrassment from losing bases to PMU, which could take hostages.
Yemen:
- base case: Ansarallah can attack ships in the Gulf of Aden again to disrupt global shipping and divert US focus from Iran and increase political cost to Trump
- long shot: they could also attack US bases in Qatar / Bahrain / UAE (1100-1400km from Yemen, so it's within range)
- they could also restart launching missiles at Israel in the event that Israel joins the conflict
Lebanon:
- base case: it is not clear what Hezbollah could do, except to launch attacks against Israel in case Israel joins the conflict.
- long shot: they could fire missiles and drones at commercial shipping off the coast of Israel / in the Med. this could be done from all parts of Lebanon quite easily and could be a powerful addition to Ansarallah attacking ships in the Gulf of Aden and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz
all of this would help to increase political pressure on the US to end any war with Iran. probably the most potent way to do it would be to attack oil installations and all parties to attack shipping lanes near them, leading to a sudden surge in insurance premiums and huge increase in oil prices.
if that is sustained, you can easily imagine significant political pressure building on Trump to end the war, if IRI can survive long enough.
but IRI has to be brave enough to pursue this option while it has the chance rather than waiting and hoping the US will let them play ping pong and wait for IRI to respond before it launches another attack (Hezbollah and IRI make this mistake a lot).
Iraq:
- base case: PMU can attack US bases in Iraq to soften them up while Iran absorbs the initial blows and focuses on US destroyers / CSG and prepares missiles to attack Qatar
- long shot: PMU could also launch ground operations against US bases, which would be largely evacuated, or even the US embassy (they did this in 2019). it will keep the US busy and they risk embarrassment from losing bases to PMU, which could take hostages.
Yemen:
- base case: Ansarallah can attack ships in the Gulf of Aden again to disrupt global shipping and divert US focus from Iran and increase political cost to Trump
- long shot: they could also attack US bases in Qatar / Bahrain / UAE (1100-1400km from Yemen, so it's within range)
- they could also restart launching missiles at Israel in the event that Israel joins the conflict
Lebanon:
- base case: it is not clear what Hezbollah could do, except to launch attacks against Israel in case Israel joins the conflict.
- long shot: they could fire missiles and drones at commercial shipping off the coast of Israel / in the Med. this could be done from all parts of Lebanon quite easily and could be a powerful addition to Ansarallah attacking ships in the Gulf of Aden and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz
all of this would help to increase political pressure on the US to end any war with Iran. probably the most potent way to do it would be to attack oil installations and all parties to attack shipping lanes near them, leading to a sudden surge in insurance premiums and huge increase in oil prices.
if that is sustained, you can easily imagine significant political pressure building on Trump to end the war, if IRI can survive long enough.
but IRI has to be brave enough to pursue this option while it has the chance rather than waiting and hoping the US will let them play ping pong and wait for IRI to respond before it launches another attack (Hezbollah and IRI make this mistake a lot).
kastor ville
Registered Member
Welcome brother.....welcome, better late than never. : )
chinasun
Registered Member
In 1989, when Khomeini was in power, though its weapons were tenfold inferior, the government remained incorruptible, clerics dared not embezzle, and the entire nation stood united like an iron wall—America dared not lightly provoke war. Before 2020, while Soleimani was still alive, though the state's foundation had been eroded by corrupt clergy, the "Axis of Resistance" still held, the Shia crescent remained unbroken—any invasion by the US and Israel would yield no advantage, hence they too dared not encroach.
Today, the "Axis of Resistance" built by Soleimani has collapsed: the nation teeters on the brink of collapse, drained by fiscal exhaustion, currency implosion, and an intensifying water crisis. The reformists advocate foreign compromise, yet remain helpless in domestic affairs, lamenting in vain. The clergy, greedy and corrupt, endlessly feud for power; the state stands like a tower built on sand, perilously near ruin.
Five possible futures:
First: Abandon the nuclear program, accept inspections, limit ballistic missiles, and allow US oil transit in exchange for sanctions relief. US-Iran negotiations conclude, Trump declares victory. Probability: 25%.
Second: Escalating conflict, full US military engagement aiming for regime change, yet ultimately bogged down, failing to achieve its objectives. Probability: 15%.
Third: Theocratic collapse, the nation fracturing into three—Persian, Azeri, and Kurdish regions each independent, Israel exploits the moment to expand, the Middle East map redrawn. Probability: 15%.
Fourth: Withstand pressure, stabilize the situation, theocratic rule replaced by military dictatorship, the Revolutionary Guards assume full control. Probability: 30%.
Fifth: Protracted stalemate, neither breakthrough nor collapse, slowly bleeding out under sanctions and internal crises, eventually exhausting national strength. Probability: 15%.
Today, the "Axis of Resistance" built by Soleimani has collapsed: the nation teeters on the brink of collapse, drained by fiscal exhaustion, currency implosion, and an intensifying water crisis. The reformists advocate foreign compromise, yet remain helpless in domestic affairs, lamenting in vain. The clergy, greedy and corrupt, endlessly feud for power; the state stands like a tower built on sand, perilously near ruin.
Five possible futures:
First: Abandon the nuclear program, accept inspections, limit ballistic missiles, and allow US oil transit in exchange for sanctions relief. US-Iran negotiations conclude, Trump declares victory. Probability: 25%.
Second: Escalating conflict, full US military engagement aiming for regime change, yet ultimately bogged down, failing to achieve its objectives. Probability: 15%.
Third: Theocratic collapse, the nation fracturing into three—Persian, Azeri, and Kurdish regions each independent, Israel exploits the moment to expand, the Middle East map redrawn. Probability: 15%.
Fourth: Withstand pressure, stabilize the situation, theocratic rule replaced by military dictatorship, the Revolutionary Guards assume full control. Probability: 30%.
Fifth: Protracted stalemate, neither breakthrough nor collapse, slowly bleeding out under sanctions and internal crises, eventually exhausting national strength. Probability: 15%.
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