Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

AmirIGM said:
If Iran continues to do nothing and take sucker punches like this Israel will conclude (correctly) that they can sink the Behshad with little to no consequences.
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You are manifestly incorrect. Tit-for-tat is simplistic thinking. Iran is executing brilliantly.
 
Immortals said:
Which is all nuclear weapons are good for. You can have your soil bombed and your military assets attacked, that doesn’t warrant a nuclear exchange.
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that's a pretty good benefit if you ask me

and if I was in charge of Iran's military I would be pretty happy if I knew I could have an exclusively conventional exchange with Israel without them resorting to nuclear weapons
Immortals said:
Very strategic mistake by Bush administration who was on a ego trip from the Middle East wars. I don’t think people truly realize how big of a mistake that was. Iran was in a real position to trade away vast capabilities in order to be accepted by the West. At the time Iran’s military was a relic no AD, no real Airforce, no navy, no LACM, it’s drones were from 1980s, it had a super inaccurate missile named Shahab-3 that had CEP of 1-2KM. And Iran truly felt threatened by a land invasion.

Instead the West humiliated Iran by naming it an Axis of Evil and only built a massive headache for the world 20 years later.
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you have gone on a bit of a tangent here but yes the 'axis of evil' speech ruined everything especially after Iran was working with the USA in Afghanistan

one of the former Israeli PMs makes the point that the time to attack Iran was early 2000s when it only had a few nuclear sites and virtually no AD besides Hawk and s-200 and virtually no ability to respond against Israel (aside from wildly inaccurate Shahab-3s)
Immortals said:
There is no perfect “solution”. If you want deterrence you have to match you opponent. So either strike the F-35’s that killed your officers or do a military decapitation strike on a group of IDF high level officers using whatever wonder weapon/black ops you were saving for a rainy day.

If your idea of deterrence is to strike a few cargo ships, throw some drones at a random base and call it a day then don’t expect strikes to stop. Solemani already tried that, it failed.

The idea is you need to ACCEPT the possibility of war. Only when you are in a open skirmish and your enemy can sense you are not scared of going into war —will deterrence be achieved. Israel knows Iran is scared to go into war. It can sense it.

Imagine a street fight, if you know your opponent will not escalate beyond some words and pushing and shoving, what will you do? You will feel emboldened and think you can win the fight.

But if suddenly he starts to fight back, initially you will be surpised at where this prowess came from, so your goal is to scare him back to his original position of being a coward. So Maybe you draw out a knife. Now you expect him to either de-escalate or be afraid and give up. But if instead he pulls out knife as well or even worse a gun, you suddenly realize that death is possibility.

And now the real high stakes game theory begins —usually at these points is when ceasefires or diplomatic breakthrus happen or yes all out war. But recent history (post WW2) has seen mostly descalation.

So again, the issue is. Israel knows outside of bombing Iran’s nuclear program or killing the Supreme Leader of Iran. Iran won’t go to war or do anything that can cause it immense pain. It will avoid it. So if you knew that about your opponent, why wouldn’t you being doing EXACTLY what Israel is doing?
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The problem is IRI has tried to avoid all out war all this time and now it will be seen as responding to an Israeli provocation to start a war on THEIR terms. which is just something they have to accept due to poor planning that put them in this position to begin with

I think most of us agree there will be a response from Iran. and we almost agree broadly on what the response should be. but the response we will get is unlikely to satisfy us or restore deterrence. but on this trajectory there will eventually there will be a tipping point where Israel goes too far, I just wonder how many more Iranian/Hezbollah HVTs will be removed until then
 
Jedaal live: consensus on not disrupting strategic equation:

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Saudi Arabia and UAE condemned the attack, one after another, it seems they dont want to be involved in this
 
tsunset said:
Saudi Arabia and UAE condemned the attack, one after another, it seems they dont want to be involved in this
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I saw Qatar and UAE condemned it. Did Bahrain and Jordan condemn it too or can we still attack them?
 
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a bit odd. emphasising that the US is responsible.
 
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"Quds Force senior command in #Syria wiped out since December"

"All GCC member states except #Bahrain and #Kuwait have issued statements to condemn the attack."

"Next potential target? Mohammad Saeed Izadi—head of the Quds Force’s Palestinian branch out of Lebanon."
 
Persian Gulf said:
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"Quds Force senior command in #Syria wiped out since December"

"All GCC member states except #Bahrain and #Kuwait have issued statements to condemn the attack."

"Next potential target? Mohammad Saeed Izadi—head of the Quds Force’s Palestinian branch out of Lebanon."
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Kuwait has also condemned it
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