Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[jauk]

I agree. But in the field of public relations, if there is no proportionate retaliation, Iran will be seen as a weak actor and this is a motivator for enemies to cross more and more red lines. Just look at NATO's case with Russia in the Black Sea.

Iran 'will be a seen as a weak actor' by whom? You? Me? We don't matter. The strategists and policymakers see this far more differently and complex. They matter. We can shake our heads and cry and wail and whine. We're irrelevant.

And no, Zionia's actions are not because they perceive the IRI as weak--they are desperately trying to change the status quo. And no, IRI's inaction is not because they're weak--they are effectively maintaining the status quo.

A creature that's being strangled will lash out in desperation.

Here's Nadimi's clearheaded take:

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[Nuffle]

Iran 'will be a seen as a weak actor' by whom? You? Me? We don't matter. The strategists and policymakers see this far more differently and complex. They matter. We can shake our heads and cry and wail and whine. We're irrelevant.

And no, Zionia's actions are not because they perceive the IRI as weak--they are desperately trying to change the status quo. And no, IRI's inaction is not because they're weak--they are effectively maintaining the status quo.

A creature that's being strangled will lash out in desperation.

Here's Nadimi's clearheaded take:

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The entire world, as well as Russia, is seen as powerless in the face of NATO's superiority over Russia in the ISR incursions in the Black Sea. I'm sorry, but this is the image that Iran will show to the world, weak in the face of Israel's attack to kill the IRGC high command.

 

[AmirIGM]

This is a child’s emotional take. Countries aren’t run by children brought up in Hollywood dogma. This stuff is real and it’s how it’s done. Smart minds agree with me. Iran’s behavior agrees with me.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be a response. There might be or not. If there is it must not change the equation: Israel’s self destruction. This is so painfully obvious.

Yes act smart and grown up because Iran is being cowardly, and claim that cowardice is some kind of galaxy brain 1000 years in the future grand strategic plan. Reality is you're just looking for excuses to justify Iranian inaction. If that defensive cheerleading behaviour is not childish and akin to football fan-like tribalism I don't know what is.

I'm not going to explain why because I already have done (below) and would be repeating myself. But the long and short of it is that this is more than just this particular attack, it's about correcting the past decade of Israel degrading Iran's deterrence and ensuring Iranian sovereignty and deterrence in the next decade. Letting this slide would be a colossal mistake especially as with the current circumstances of this attack and Israel's diplomatic isolation and its military being stretched right now we would be missing a golden opportunity.

 

[mangekyo]

Iran 'will be a seen as a weak actor' by whom? You? Me? We don't matter. The strategists and policymakers see this far more differently and complex. They matter. We can shake our heads and cry and wail and whine. We're irrelevant.

And no, Zionia's actions are not because they perceive the IRI as weak--they are desperately trying to change the status quo. And no, IRI's inaction is not because they're weak--they are effectively maintaining the status quo.

A creature that's being strangled will lash out in desperation.

Here's Nadimi's clearheaded take:

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I dont doubt your intentions. But you are deceiving yourself.

Israel has been known to target children, schools and hospitals for decades. It's not something new. They didnt worry about their image then, they dont now. They know they will continue to receive infinite support from the US, so naturally the rest of the world doesn't matter. Thats why Israel doesn't need to drag the US and Iran into war. They can handle Gaza on their own easily.

The reason they bombed the consulate is the same reason they have been assassinating our scientists and bonded us in Syria for a decade now. They know they can hurt us and get away with it. It's that simple. They are not desperate at all. There is no grand scheme.

The fact is that when our leaders are more worried about staying in power than defending our honour. Israel can assassinate our scientists in Iran. Assassinate our commanders outside of Iran. They can hit our soil. They can do whatever they want. What's our response? Nada.

When the response to teenage girls not wearing the hejab correctly is a billion times more harsh than the respond to slaying our scientists and commanders, even hitting our soil. That should tell you everything.

 

[Immortals]

When the response to teenage girls not wearing the hejab correctly is a billion times more harsh than the respond to slaying our scientists and commanders, even hitting our soil. That should tell you everything.

Astute observation.

When it comes to civil unrest by teenagers and youth, they deploy a heavy hammer with police firing buckshot and beating its own citizen to a pulp.

When comes to 200+ strikes in Syria in last 10 years. Assassinations on Iranian soil last 20 years. Countless sabotage attacks……deafening silence.

“Time and place” has become “never going to happen”.

In last 6 months, IRGC Quds Force has lost 13 officers including 3 maybe 4 Generals. Iran is the only nation that tolerates killing of its Generals by another nation in the history of modern warfare. The value Iran places on human life is similar to that of a insurgent group that routinely gets drone strikes by a much more capable nation state. Just like said insurgent groups they threaten a harsh revenge that never materializes.

Notice when even the weak pacifist Biden Adminstration was faced with the US soldier deaths in Jordan they conducted 80 strikes + assassinated head of Katib Hezbollah + EW strike on IRGC Beshad warship that took it offline for 2 weeks.

And what did Iran and miltias do? Nothing.
In fact just before the retilation strikes they made a statement “oops sorry we won’t attack again Mr. Biden” and waved the white flag.

Everyone knows Iran won’t do anything. Users here will grasp at straws when a car accident or mafia hit happens in Israel and claim it was IRGC. Yeah right.

Like you said the powerful families that run the Republic want to enjoy their power and wealth. They don’t want to face war/sanctions. Much like the Russian oligarchs, their kids and grandchildren live abroad or routinely vacation across the world living lavishly. IRGC answers to the Republic and the Republic does not care for soldier deaths or have any appetite for war.

The revolutionary zeal that characterized 1980’s Iran is largely absent in the power structure dynamics of the Republic today. They rather sit and sling dirt on each other in their respective newspapers. Ultra conservatives rather focus on making sure strands of hair aren’t dangling from women or people don’t have dogs as pets then any serious challenge to the Middle East hegemonic structure.

 

[tsunset]

Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) held a meeting last night to assess options to respond to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Important and rational decisions were made in this meeting.The secretary of Iran's SNSC, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, who attended last night's meeting on how to retaliate, left Tehran for Astana to participate in the meeting of the heads of national security councils of the SCO.

 

[SaadH]

Will attacking a military target re-establish deterrence? Or will Iran attempt to re-establish that via taking out the same number of Israeli Diplomats ? Iran may do some tactical strike for the pressure at home for now, but will they feel the need to make sure Israel feels it personally? That is the question. Deterrence has been lost. It has been for some while now as none of Irans responses to date have been equivalent.. ie when was the last israeli general that was killed in response etc?

Can you imagine India trying to take out a Pakistani general/admiral etc ?! Can you imagine what Pakistan will do in response? India knows that - that is why they dont attact at that level in South Asia.

Pakistani generals are in Indian employ, why would India take them out.

As for iranian response one option could the repeat of the attack in Argentina back in '92.

Another option could be attacking naval assets at sea both military and commercial. Basically put the Houthi effort on steroids.

 

[Sarhang]

Iran 'will be a seen as a weak actor' by whom? You? Me? We don't matter. The strategists and policymakers see this far more differently and complex. They matter. We can shake our heads and cry and wail and whine. We're irrelevant.

And no, Zionia's actions are not because they perceive the IRI as weak--they are desperately trying to change the status quo. And no, IRI's inaction is not because they're weak--they are effectively maintaining the status quo.

A creature that's being strangled will lash out in desperation.

Here's Nadimi's clearheaded take:

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Apart from your ''Zionia'' and other childish terms you are correct.

IR, especially Khamenei do not take earthly embarassments into consideration. They only (in their mind) answer to the one and almighty.

What is a few killed generals here and there? The jihad must go on.

 

[tsunset]

Outside of the embassy attacks, can someone explain to us how Hamas has been destroyed and what Israel gained in Gaza? (besides killing civilians with airstrikes etc)

 

[Nuffle]

As for iranian response one option could the repeat of the attack in Argentina back in '92.

Another option could be attacking naval assets at sea both military and commercial. Basically put the Houthi effort on steroids.

I believe that a proportionate response from Iran would be to attack an Israeli consulate/embassy in Jordan. But this is unlikely to happen.

 

[tsunset]

I believe that a proportionate response from Iran would be to attack an Israeli consulate/embassy in Jordan. But this is unlikely to happen.

I was thinking of this at first

But blowing up a consulate is a war crime and Israel would win the PR battle by doing such a thing, also the Jordan consulate doesn't have any Israeli in it since 7th oct

A proportionate response is to level the hangars containing F-16s or F-35 that were used for the attack

 

[Nuffle]

I was thinking of this at first

But blowing up a consulate is a war crime and Israel would win the PR battle by doing such a thing, also the Jordan consulate doesn't have any Israeli in it since 7th oct

A proportionate response is to level the hangars containing F-16s or F-35 that were used for the attack

This is the point. But still, the Israeli embassy is still in Jordan with its diplomatic representation and with several protests:

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[jauk]

I dont doubt your intentions. But you are deceiving yourself.

Israel has been known to target children, schools and hospitals for decades. It's not something new. They didnt worry about their image then, they dont now. They know they will continue to receive infinite support from the US, so naturally the rest of the world doesn't matter. Thats why Israel doesn't need to drag the US and Iran into war. They can handle Gaza on their own easily.

The reason they bombed the consulate is the same reason they have been assassinating our scientists and bonded us in Syria for a decade now. They know they can hurt us and get away with it. It's that simple. They are not desperate at all. There is no grand scheme.

The fact is that when our leaders are more worried about staying in power than defending our honour. Israel can assassinate our scientists in Iran. Assassinate our commanders outside of Iran. They can hit our soil. They can do whatever they want. What's our response? Nada.

When the response to teenage girls not wearing the hejab correctly is a billion times more harsh than the respond to slaying our scientists and commanders, even hitting our soil. That should tell you everything.

I don’t doubt your intentions either. You see things simplistic tally and of course incorrectly.

 

[jauk]

Yes act smart and grown up because Iran is being cowardly, and claim that cowardice is some kind of galaxy brain 1000 years in the future grand strategic plan. Reality is you're just looking for excuses to justify Iranian inaction. If that defensive cheerleading behaviour is not childish and akin to football fan-like tribalism I don't know what is.

I'm not going to explain why because I already have done (below) and would be repeating myself. But the long and short of it is that this is more than just this particular attack, it's about correcting the past decade of Israel degrading Iran's deterrence and ensuring Iranian sovereignty and deterrence in the next decade. Letting this slide would be a colossal mistake especially as with the current circumstances of this attack and Israel's diplomatic isolation and its military being stretched right now we would be missing a golden opportunity.
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Self-referential. Huh.

 

[marj786]

No one will do thing as no one did anything the time of first crusade . This chest thumping attitude by Iran is just a chest thumping attitude . The so called restraint action of their proxies in Lebanon against Israel is the true face of a cowardly policy and attitude. They are not in for anything but to become a regional power