It was within the agreed parameters of shadow war. Since 2006, Israel’s redline was no game changing weaponry into Lebanon. Iran disregarded redline and said catch me if you can. Originally that was extent of Israeli involvement in Syria.
Israel would double tap secret convoys going to Lebanon. The truck drivers would get out then Israel would finish off the convoys and minimize human capital. Iran and Israel agreed to this intial shadow war. Only Iran knows how many shipments got thru. And eventually Iran began transferring knowledge and precision conversion kits instead.
Then the civil war happened in 2010/2011 and Israel accepted Iran’s presence on Syrian soil in the role of rebuilding SAA from ground up and directing miltias to save Assad. In the beginning Israel didn’t care as they thought Assad was falling and was happy to see Iran incur costs and be distracted. This also gave opportunity to Israel to pick off many Assad assets like military radars and installations and sensitive sites it had long had on its target lists. Assad was too busy with the orcs inside his capital.
During the civil war, Iran transitioned to building Syrian Hezbollah (NDF aligned forces) near the Golan. This drew another Israeli redline. As Israel would not tolerate another HZ group on its borders. Israel killed Allahdadi in Golan Heights alongside Hezbollah officers in 2014 as a declaration. Israel and US said Iran should withdraw most of its forces from Syria as threat to Assad was over. Iran said make me. Iran expanded its entrenchment.
This led to phase two of shadow war where Israel went from just striking arms convoys to attempting to “bomb Iran enough” to leave Syria. The thinking was that with enough casualties and material damage to bases/depots/etc Iran would decide to leave Syria. Thus over 200+ strikes were down on Iran and Iran affiliated groups from 2017-2023. This only hardened Iran’s paranoia and resolve that the real was to take Assad out so the land bridge to Lebanon was permanently closed.
This expanded shadow war went on from 2014-2020 and slowly expanded into other theaters (naval exchanges, sabotage, cyber warfare). Then Solemani died and everything took a turn for the worse. During the same time Trump applied maximum pressure. And Iran feeling threatened expanded the shadow war by increasing support to Iraqi/Syrian/Lebanon/Houthi’s as well as increasing the shadow naval war.
Fast forward to today: Israel has largely accepted that Iran won’t leave Syria and now has two groups on its borders (HZ in North, Iraqi/Syrian militias in Golan). Thus it’s shifted its focus on degrading Iran’s capability by “mowing the grass”. It continues to target sensitive equipment (air defenses, missiles, supply depots) in a bid to reduce operational capability. It still hopes with enough pain, Iran will reduce its footprint and withdraw most IRGC back to Iran. Iran now has at least 50 (I have seen reports of 100) military sites in Syria including the massive Imam Ali base in the east.
With regard to assassinations of HVT, Iran has accepted that as part of the shadow war since 2014/2015 when Brig General Allahdadi was killed. It was the price to pay to establish another front near your enemy. Much like the price IRGC played in the 80’s and 90’s setting up HZ during the Lebanon civil war.
The only reason you heard about this shadow war price was because of modern age of OSINT and social media being able to report attacks as they happened by civilians and internet sleuths.
Iran had to rebuild the entire SAA and bring in militia “shock troops” from Iraq, HZ from Lebanon who could actually fight in the interim and help with manpower issue. Battle of Yabrud you should look it up, HZ demolished the terrorists in a major battle on both sides. It was one of the first victories in a long long time that resulted in taking back control of Lebanon/Syrian border. It also marked a turn in Assad’s fortunes. I was following the war and Yabrud and the victories that followed made it clear Iran was in it for the long run.
You forget SAA lost over 150,000+ men as well as many defections by Sunnis within it’s ranks who were tempted by Arab money and US promises. It was literally a skeleton army by 2013. Iran created rhe NDF which was similar to the Iraqi PMU because SAA was infiltrated by spies and double agents. NDF was a band of Militias and volunteers from Syria. It had to literally retrain an entire military + volunteers to fight against battle hardened Chechens, Tajikistans, Iraqi terrorists, Al-Queda, etc. fighters from all over the world came to wage Jihad against the Shiites and Alawaites.
It’s not easy to rebuild a military. Just ask US and the non-existent Afghan army today.
Syria doesn’t have the capacity even today to wage war. It’s air defenses have done the best they could but are shell of the former self. Syrian air defenses in 2010 was many times denser and more capable than Iran’s. This wasn’t my analysis, but US 5 star general testifying in front of Congress in the beginning of the war about cons to US intervention to topple Assad and support FSA.
And I already answered your question above, reason Iran didn’t escalate is because it largely agreed to the rules of shadow war. It was the price to pay to open another front in Golan. For better or for worse it worked:
- 2010 Iran had only a rather loose alliance with Assad. There were zero Iranians stationed in Syria and zero Iranian affiliated miltias. Assad kept Iran at arms length.
- 2023 Assad relies on Iran for survival. Iran now has many many bases/tens of militias/land/economic contracts/and infiltration of SAA officer Corp.
Having the capability and using the capability are two different things. Especially if hitting Israel doesn’t change anything.
It’s tough to set deterrence when you are stationed in a foreign land and you been playing by the same rules for last decade. If it was easy then US wouldn’t accept 100+ harassment attacks on its bases in Syria/Iraq. If it was easy, US wouldn’t have accepted Quds force funneling EFPs into Iraq that were melting US convoys and Abrams during the occupation.
If Israel was setting up a 50,000+ man foreign legion in Azeribajian do you think Iran would just sit around and twiddle their thumbs? No.
If Israel was setting up hundreds of cruise missiles on its borders aimed at Iranian sites do you think a iran would just rollover? No
Iran is escalating this war by sitting on Israel’s border. Remember US almost went to Nuclear war with Soviet Union when they began entrenching themselves in Cuba. Iran knows no major military power accept a sudden foreign presence on its border. Just ask Russia and Ukraine.
In the end despite what we think, Iran has many times the power it had in 2010 prior to Syrian war. If you told Solemani and IRGC that you would lose 2000 soldiers, but gain a entire country as your playground they would say in a heartbeat.
It’s a long cry from 1980’s when IRGC had to ask for permission from Assad family to go from Syria into Lebanon to establish a “resistance group”. Up till 2000’s, SAA had a permanent military presence in Lebanon as occupying force to prevent Israeli expansion into Lebanon.
