Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Immortals]

Yemenis Ansarullah, armed forces released images of the drone attack on the ship (CYCLADES) which wanted to go Israeli ports in the Red Sea.
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Looks like a tanker.

Given that they aimed for the control tower instead of one of the tanks shows that they are not trying to cause an ignition of the fuel it’s carrying.

 

[Immortals]

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It might mean they used only 1 out of 5 (missile mountain bases) or 2 out of 10. All depends on how many you think Iran has built.

 

[tsunset]

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It might mean they used only 1 out of 5 (missile mountain bases) or 2 out of 10. All depends on how many you think Iran has built.

The 80% left are those CENTCOM classifies as "failed launches"

 

[Persian Gulf]

UAE is closer and Riyadh is closer to Yemen then Israel is.

Again you avoid acknowledging the that both of those nations had less advanced ABMs than Israel and relied entirely on patriot and still intercepted the vast majority of Shahab-3 derivatives fired at them.

Even now Yemen during shipping wars has struggled with targeting ships reliably with BMs and that’s with Beshad providing up to date targeting.

Yes. And Yemen to Riyadh and Yemen to UAE is similar distance as Iran to Israel

I don't avoid it, I acknowledge it. SCUD based missiles are food for modern ABM systems

That’s not how it works, you been watching too much Hollywood movies. I literally posted graphics from credible sources.

You confuse satellites with infrared detection capabilities that detect the hot booster start of a missile as it exits the TEL.

they can detect heat signature of missile launch = fact

No one here said Mach 14th is terminal velocity, it’s actually the most important is in-flight that reduces reaction time. Currently it’s 8-10 mins using Iran’s current missiles. Assuming that max speed of those is mach 8-10, even a 30% reduction in travel time is highly significant factor plus instead of at a max apogee with a booster attached you are in the upper atmosphere just a wedge warhead again reducing radar observance. Add into the fact that HGVs have lower RCS due to lower drag surfaces (especially wedge) and lower flight path and you have a much harder target to locate even as TV drops to below Mach 7.

well I don't want to be pedantic but you did say that: "A HGV can change its course and can skip the upper atmosphere following a psuedo random trajectory and avoid radar zones before striking its opponent all while at speeds of Mach 14+"

Oh look you solved the problem. I guess Russia/China/Iran/North Korea/America/UK all going for Hypersonics are naive and should have just consulted you.

Any interceptor will be a glorified BM. Kinetics go to the challenger as it’s merely a low drag wedge shaped warhead plummeting downward using gravity to its advantage and any ABM is a fuel loaded rocket going against gravity.

HGV is harder to intercept but not impossible despite what some claim

The main question becomes how much does Fattah-2 cost and how many can iran produce under sanctions. Everyone here assumes it’s cheap, but that’s unlikely especially once you get to true wedge HGVs which I assume would be closer to North Korea’s

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Most HGVs field by China and Russia and US are going to be very expensive. But they will tasked with carrying a nuclear payload so the cost off-set the mighty importance (break thru the shield and deliver a nuclear hit to your opponent at a success % rate that forces your opponent to avoid war)

But in Iran’s case it’s HGVs will be conventional and much like a conventional ICBM, the issue will cost and practicality of a conventional warhead. If Fattah-2 or future Fattah-3 costs Iran $10M a missile (not unheard of) and Qiam costs Iran $100-200K a missile then that’s a big gap and I’m not sure what Iran’s leadership will do.

Fattah-2 uses same mass produced booster as KS and Fattah-1, that part will be cheap for sure

the RV likely more expensive but I seriously doubt above $1m in total. Fattah is much much smaller than the North Korean HGV missile (I forgot its name, Hwasong 16 or something)

To be able to reliably target the main radars of THAAD and arrow-3/4, iran will need much better ISR in the future to be able to locate these radars prior and during conflict. This is an area that Russia itself is currently lacking compared to NATO. So it’s not very easy. But here Israel’s limited size works against it, as Iran can locate potential installations much faster than Russia in a much bigger Ukraine.

true but this is where a range of 1m resolution or better spy satellites in orbit is so important

until then many of them can probably be found in open source or using Russian satellites

EDIT: anyway this debate should probably go to the Iranian missiles thread rather than this thread

 

[Persian Gulf]

Video of Soleimani delivering first Iranian drone to Sayed Nasrallah personally in 1999:

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Drone is Mohajer-2. Quite a historic video

 

[Persian Gulf]

Another Hezbollah ambush against IDF (north occupied Palestine)

At 08:17 pm on Tuesday, April 30, 2024, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance set up an elaborate ambush against an Israeli military vehicle at the Yifthah-Ramot Naftali triangle. When it reached the ambush point, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted it. With guided missile weapons, they hit it directly, as it was destroyed and burned, along with its occupants.

Expect to see the video soon...

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[lightning f57]

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I fear those zionist dogs are preparing for a war in south Lebanon. They will go after Hezbollah next, Netanyahu wants to prolong as long as possible his arrest only way is continue wars.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I fear those zionist dogs are preparing for a war in south Lebanon. They will go after Hezbollah next, Netanyahu wants to prolong as long as possible his arrest only way is continue wars.

they are publicly threatening that if Hezbollah doesn't withdraw from the south of Lebanon then Israel will go to all out war with Hezbollah. but Hezbollah will never agree to this and will not back down.

 

[MLK]

I fear those zionist dogs are preparing for a war in south Lebanon. They will go after Hezbollah next, Netanyahu wants to prolong as long as possible his arrest only way is continue wars.

I wish a war doesn't break out because south Lebanon will be destroyed and god knows these people have endured all types of atrocities by Israel; however this time the destruction will be mutual.

Hezbollah was a powerful militia in 2006, 18 years later they're infinitely more powerful, a force to be reckoned with.
Hezbollah are now capable of penetrating deep inside israel and they have the weapons, training and manpower to make the "northern Israel" uninhabitable.
If Israel has an ounce of intelligence they'll steer far away from Hezbollah!

 

[tsunset]

I wish a war doesn't break out because south Lebanon will be destroyed and god knows these people have endured all types of atrocities by Israel; however this time the destruction will be mutual.

Hezbollah was a powerful militia in 2006, 18 years later they're infinitely more powerful, a force to be reckoned with.
Hezbollah are now capable of penetrating deep inside israel and they have the weapons, training and manpower to make the "northern Israel" uninhabitable.
If Israel has an ounce of intelligence they'll steer far away from Hezbollah!

This is what i've been saying for a year

People are often too fixated on the military aspect of the subject, "missiles vs ABM, Hezbollah better, IDF better" "you will see" and whatever, but never listen to very important things coming from Lebanon firefighting department, Lebanon will not be able to sustain carpet bombing from Israel, civilians will be killed in mass, Hezbollah aside this

 

[jauk]

This is what i've been saying for a year

People are often too fixated on the military aspect of the subject, "missiles vs ABM, Hezbollah better, IDF better" "you will see" and whatever, but never listen to very important things coming from Lebanon firefighting department, Lebanon will not be able to sustain carpet bombing from Israel, civilians will be killed in mass, Hezbollah aside this

…correct….war is neither free nor without extreme loss and pain. Needless to say.

 

[Immortals]

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More of @Hack-Hook amazing Western weaponry

 

[Immortals]

I don't avoid it, I acknowledge it. SCUD based missiles are food for modern ABM systems

Any missile that follows a traditional ballistic path and flies a high apogee path is easily interceptable by an exo.

People here like to talk about Rezvan vs Qiam. But Rezvan can be detected at launch easier (hotter burn) and appears sooner in its flight phase to ground base space focused radar than Qiam does. What separates Rezvan is its steeper RV descent.

But some like to act like Rezvan is leagues ahead of Qiam it’s not. THAAD and Arrow-3 can make quick work of these missiles.

they can detect heat signature of missile launch = fact

Detecting heat signature =/= tracking missile throughout flight

That might be obvious, but want to make it clear. Satellite 1st stage ignition tracking is the “early warning” receiver of missile launches. Just let’s air defense teams prepare rather than be sitting in front of their radars and suddenly see something pop up at 3 AM.

well I don't want to be pedantic but you did say that: "A HGV can change its course and can skip the upper atmosphere following a psuedo random trajectory and avoid radar zones before striking its opponent all while at speeds of Mach 14+"

Someone with a basic understanding of laws of physics knows there is no alloy on earth that can rip thru the density of earth’s atmosphere (terminal) and still maintain structural integrity at speeds these HGVs are achieving in flight testing Mach 14, Mach 20, and yes above.

Terminal velocity is a thing. Example, A human falling from 30,000 feet and human falling from 3,000 feet have the same terminal speed.

HGV is harder to intercept but not impossible despite what some claim

Much more difficult and doing it consistently (ie above 70%) is not economically feasible.

Fattah-2 uses same mass produced booster as KS and Fattah-1, that part will be cheap for sure

No cares about booster. The expensive part is HGV itself and the coating/ramjet it uses. Now remains to be seen how Fattah-2 actually works and how Fattah-3 will be.

For example, Fattah-1 is more like a higher flying KS, gains More speed being in upper atmosphere and can use its small engine to do 1 or 2 lift up maneuvers since it has a high drag design. Don’t consider it a true HGV, since it has limited KE. Probably more difficult to intercept that KS-1 and significantly more difficult than the SCUD family (Ghadr, Qiam, Rezvan, Emad) and long range Fattah family (Dezful, Haj Qassem)

the RV likely more expensive but I seriously doubt above $1m in total.

Even though Hajizadeh said that Simorgh (a glorified SCUD based SLV) cost what $2M? You think a HGV cost less than $1M? Every other country is in the tens of millions of dollars except Iran?

If iran is as cheap as building as all you guys think, how come it cannot repair its decript oil industry? How come it’s needs hundreds of billions of dollars investment? I mean surely a country that can build an HGV for less than the retail price of a high end Lamborghini can repair their oil facilities for virtually no cost at all!

Some of you have really gone off the deep end in your cost parity analysis of Iranian military hardware.

true but this is where a range of 1m resolution or better spy satellites in orbit is so important

resolution is less important and number of constellations and it’s set up (GEO vs LEO) is much more important. As of right now, Iran cannot reliably launch satellites. It takes months and sometimes years to
Get one in the air. Meanwhile private space companies are already doing it on monthly to weekly basis.

until then many of them can probably be found in open source or using Russian satellites

You aren’t finding high end space focused radars on open source during wartime.

 

[Harbyharb]

Not true.

Yes and it’s pretty successful given the workload it’s under. No system is perfect, but iron dome is a successful weapon system all things considered. The alternative (nothing) would certainty be worse.

David’s Sling is meant to replace PAC-2 not operate in conjunction with it

There is no gap. Not sure what you are referring to.

Iron Dome > Iron Beam (laser) > David’s sling > Arrow 2/3 (traditional BMs) > THAAD/Arrow-4 (next gen BMs)

That is one of the most capable air defense IADS in the world. Most militaries don’t come close to that.

Very reasonable interceptor cost (if true). Patriot interceptor cost is $3M. So you a talking 1/3 cost and better endo maneuverability vs bulky TVC based systems.

Do you work in the factories?

That is not a Israeli thing. Russian systems also use a two missile protocol as does Patriot.

No they are not. Iranian strategy from 2008-2020 was a saturation strategy. They are now slowly moving to an evasion strategy by using glide vehicles, HGV, and MaRVs (Fattah-1).

What?

Well Iron Dome is for rockets, drones, and artillery not Mach 3+ missiles (more like Mach 6+ but whatever).

Lol what? $1M per interceptor is too expensive? Someone call Ukraine and tell them to stop blowing 10 interceptors ($30M) every interception attempt or Saudi Arabia for emptying hundreds of patriot interceptors during their war on Yemen.

My post is not strictly concerning just missiles fired within the Iranian border, but more so the strategies employed by the entire Axis of Resistance. I say that there's a gap between Iron Dome and David Sling not because there's a gap in capability, but a gap in suitability and affordability.

My criticism of David's Sling's cost and low production figure comes from my focus on the military buildup of Russia and around the West Pacific, where between a terminal point defence system and a high-alt ABM system, there would be an intermediate-range system such as NASAM, IRIS-T, 9M317, HQ-16, etc. While the former two can still be expensive ranging between 1mil to 450k USD, the latter allegedly dips below 300k USD per missile.

This is not to say David's Sling is not advanced. Its asymmetric kill vehicle design enabled outstanding terminal manoeuvrability even at high alt where other fin-steered missiles would struggle and allowed a very compact missile to achieve the same role as much bulkier counterparts. But, given the Axis of Resistance's strategy of bombarding civilian targets to sow public unrest instead of attacking military targets, Iron Dome has significant difficulties in covering large areas because of its low cut-off velocity, which places significant strain upon David's Sling.

And yes, I do think the act of tossing away patriots like candies by Saudi to be irresponsible and unsustainable. In Ukraine's case, it's a bit more excusable since the famous clip of the PAC-3 site firing dozens of missiles in a volley near Kyiv was during a Kinzhal strike which targets the PAC-3 site itself, and the West didn't really supply supplementary terminal intercept systems to go with the PAC.