Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

There is 0% chance that Iran would transfer nukes to HZ or any proxy organization.

And still even if some crazy parallel universe they did such a thing, HZ still wouldn’t use a nuclear weapon in response to Nasrallah getting assassinated.

There is a very very high threshold set by over 75 years of precedent on keep Pandora’s box closed for nuclear weapon usage. No nuclear arms country wants to see that box opened as that would start to normalize tactical nuclear weapon usage in conflicts which brings humanity closer to Annihilation.

so far Hezbollah didn't even fire a small rocket at Tel Aviv and we are talking about them using nuclear weapons

 

[Persian Gulf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840042910370410672

 

[Immortals]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840042570694467591

it's one missile from Yemen again probably

Yemen has targeted Tel Aviv more than Hezbollah, which is odd

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840043392891531365

 

[the vicious kind]

How would that change the situation?

You think Iran would nuke Israel if Nasrallah was assassinated?

What has nukes brought Russia in Ukraine? Has it stopped US/NATO from killing countless tens of thousands of Russian soldiers?

Nukes are for preventing a Berlin 1945. They don’t stop proxy wars or non existential threat wars.

Yeah but can Ukraine or NATO even consider decapitation strikes on Putin or russian high command? No because it would mean nuclear annihilation.

Nuclear deterrence would protect Iranian leadership by ensuring they can launch a retaliatory strike against the Zionists even after a first strike. This credible threat of mutual destruction would discourage Israel from attacking, thereby safeguarding Iran’s leadership by making the cost of aggression too high

Full spectrum deterrence

Iran has developed significant industrial, scientific, and technological capabilities that could be used to advance a nuclear weapons program. You guys are already enriching urianian upto 60% in recent years, which is a technical step closer to weapons-grade.


What good did the nuclear deal do ? the only logical course is going nuclear

 

[Immortals]

so far Hezbollah didn't even fire a small rocket at Tel Aviv and we are talking about them using nuclear weapons

The world’s strongest paramilitary organization decapitated without consequence.

What strange times…

 

[PakAl]

Khamenei in 2020: USA cannot do a damn thing about us

48 hours later: USA murders head of IRGC Quds Force Soleimani and head of Iraqi PMU Muhandis

Khamenei in 2024: Hezbollah is the victor

48 hours later: Israel murders head of Hezbollah Sayed Nasrallah

--

Khamenei needs to stop talking and churning out propaganda speeches aimed at his illiterate base. He gets humiliated every time.

Iran is under heavy sanctions, the aim is to harm Iran economy and military, the west know Iran doesn't have the capability to harm Israel, they may fire 1000 missiles at Israel but the reply would be devastating for Iran so it will not happen. Khamenei also knows this, he makes big statements for his followers and local population but reality is Israel is untouchable in the middleeast as proven from recent events. Iran must build the nukes, build/buy latest submarines armed with ballistic missiles with nukes, build their airforce. Nuclear triad is important, only this will guarantee Iranian security, and from then move on to build their allies forces such as Syria, Yemen, Iraq. Hizbollah, Hamas, Ansarullah have no airforce, they are sitting ducks unfortunately.

Pakistan had same issue with Imran Khan, he was making brave statements all over the world but our military know despite nukes Nato can harm us greatly, through military and economic sanctions, plus military action. The Iranian population/leadership must address this short coming.

North Korea built the nukes despite nuclear China as its protector, they know usa is South Korea ally with nukes so they countered this with nukes to protect their existence.

I am not having a dig at Iran but pointing out what they desperately need.

 

[moonaman.varavayi]

There is 0% chance that Iran would transfer nukes to HZ or any proxy organization.

And still even if some crazy parallel universe they did such a thing, HZ still wouldn’t use a nuclear weapon in response to Nasrallah getting assassinated.

There is a very very high threshold set by over 75 years of precedent on keep Pandora’s box closed for nuclear weapon usage. No nuclear arms country wants to see that box opened as that would start to normalize tactical nuclear weapon usage in conflicts which brings humanity closer to Annihilation.

Towards the end of the Vietnam war, the US leadership was told that the only way to win would be to nuke Hanoi. The US did not resort to that, precisely for the reason you mention - they didn't want to reduce the threshold for the usage of nukes.

People talking about militias using nukes have no idea - the world has not descended to that stage yet.

Even Israel, which actually has nukes, won't use them unless their very existence is threatened.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

My Analysis

What everyone is trying to do/should do......

Israel - Israel was on defensive all the time until pagers blast...Since then, she is trying to shift the momentum in her favor by hitting aggressively. Looking for a win and trying to give something to her people to cheer on. Desperately trying to send a message across Middle East that whoever picks a fight, will die....Typical intimidation.

Israelis may launch ground invasion of Lebanon to stop constant rocket attacks that are coming out - just like they did in Hamas/Gaza case.

Hamas - She should wait no time in regrouping, restructuring the whole organization, picking a successor, re-arming and restocking as enemy is busy in Lebanon right now.

Hezbollah - Sort out the moles within, secure your comms, and go aggressive on Israel. Far Better armed than Hamas means more options than to just fire random rockets on cities. Also prepare for potential ground invasion of Lebanon and how to constantly attack Israeli cities while fighting invasion.

Yemen/Syria - Frequency and lethality of attacks will increase from now onwards. Also supporting Hezbollah via manpower on ground.

Iran - Sort the moles within hierarchy/top leadership, secure your comms and cities infra, increase vigilance on nuclear sites, take Russian help wherever you think you need (You are helping them in Ukraine, Russians can return the favor), design missiles which can evade Israeli ABM shields and lastly, the most important thing to do - TEST THE NUKES...will save a lot of sweat and blood.

-----

Israel cannot win this war if resistance remains committed and they should. This could last for years. Absorb the losses and launch an offensive.

Israelis are just thugs with more firepower. They cannot intimidate anyone.

I guess, Hezbollah will go hard now after current assassination.

October 7 is coming again...and this time, Hezbollah is angry.

 

[Persian Gulf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840048574744134003

Israel launches more strikes on Beirut

meanwhile Hezbollah didn't even respond to the last 100 strikes

 

[PakAl]

he asked about missile sites. those are mostly under mountains

Pakistan has many underground bases for missiles nukes near cities, our military knows Usa/India know the exact locations and they can attack, the only issue for the enemies is they may be able to destroy 10 bases but if a few are left or unknown then Pakistan reply would be devastating as it's a nuclear power. It's also possible they successfully destroy everything and this is why nuclear triad is important, we have nuclear airforce but still need submarines loaded with nukes for 2nd strike capabilities. Just pointing out how important it is to have a back up just incase.

 

[Immortals]

Yeah but can Ukraine or NATO even consider decapitation strikes on Putin or russian high command? No because it would mean nuclear annihilation.

What are you talking about? There have been countless assassination attempts on Putin’s life since the Ukraine war.

And Ukraine has been trying to kill Shoigu and other high command. But have failed. They already have killed numerous Russian general with little consequence.

Lastly, comparing Nasrallah of a small paramilitary organization to Putin the leader of a historical world power is erroneous on many levels.

 

[Gabriel]

How would that change the situation?

You think Iran would nuke Israel if Nasrallah was assassinated?

What has nukes brought Russia in Ukraine? Has it stopped US/NATO from killing countless tens of thousands of Russian soldiers?

Nukes are for preventing a Berlin 1945. They don’t stop proxy wars or non existential threat wars

The next target is Iran, without nuke, iran will always hesitate to respon isreal killing, if this keep continue iran will not exist in long term.

 

[PakAl]

How would that change the situation?

You think Iran would nuke Israel if Nasrallah was assassinated?

What has nukes brought Russia in Ukraine? Has it stopped US/NATO from killing countless tens of thousands of Russian soldiers?

Nukes are for preventing a Berlin 1945. They don’t stop proxy wars or non existential threat wars.

Everything would still be the same but Iran can act more aggressive, they would also know no nuclear strike would take against Iranian cities as they too can retaliate against usa bases and Israel. Behind the scenes Israel could be making nuclear threats as they claim hamas, Hizbollah are threatening Israeli existence.

 

[Nuffle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840048574744134003

Israel launches more strikes on Beirut

meanwhile Hezbollah didn't even respond to the last 100 strikes

I believe that they will try to kill Hashem Safi al-Din. He was not considered a target by Israel because he was not directly involved in Hezbollah's actions, but now he may be considered a priority target for Israel.

 

[PakAl]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1840042570694467591

it's one missile from Yemen again probably

Yemen has targeted Tel Aviv more than Hezbollah, which is odd

I think Israel is making alot of sorties over Lebanon, they bombing alot of missile sites and killing hizbollah leadership, this has made Hizbollah defensive. Even if Hizbollah fires 10,000 rockets, it will not cause as much damage as Israeli bombing which cause 100x more damage and killings, plus Israel will know where the missiles are being fired from and they will quickly bomb the area. During 2006 war, Syria was an important player but today they themselves are weak and divided.