Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Hezbollah needs to enforce new ROE to reestablish deterrence against Israeli assassinations

Israel is shifting from a full-scale ground war in Gaza, which was deemed unsuccessful, to a more targeted approach involving assassinations and special operations. This shift follows the announcement of the end of operations in the north, where objectives were not met, and a similar announcement is expected in the south in the coming weeks. Despite these changes, Israel’s main objectives, including the release of prisoners and the elimination of Hamas, remain unfulfilled and Israel is far from declaring victory over Hamas and the other Palestinian resistance groups. Hamas continues to put up fierce resistance by regularly firing rockets at Tel Aviv, sending a strong message that Israel has failed to degrade the resistance’s capabilities after less than 100 days of war.

This new strategy is aimed at prolonging the conflict, minimising human casualties and appeasing extremist cabinet members within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Netanyahu, seemingly a prisoner of his government’s agenda, is focused on staying in power rather than achieving his originally stated goals. At the same time, Israel has escalated its tactics in Lebanon, particularly targeting Hezbollah’s specialised units and leadership. This is causing Hezbollah to consider new and more effective rules of engagement to protect its members from Israeli assassination.


Hezbollah is in a war, the commanders need to act like it. no connection to internet/SIM cards, stay in fortified safe houses or underground locations, no public appearances, limit public travel ... etc

Exchange of fire across the border is a losing proposition for Hezbollah, so now it is in a weak position and has to restore deterrence somehow even though they will suffer more if there is escalation. Not a easy task
 
I don’t remember his name just his username catsoo. Good guy.

Edit: I believe you are right though. It does ring a bell.
Yahya was a Chieftain tank crew commander during the entirety of the Iran/Iraq war.
Catsoo was very knowledgeable especially in regards to IRIAF but I don't think he served during the war!
 
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Yahya was a Chieftain tank crew commander during the entirety of the Iran/Iraq war.
Catsoo was very knowledgeable especially in regards to IRIAF but I don't think he served during the war!
I see, I think I mixed up the name since it’s been so long. I do remember he was a tank commander. Are they still around? Would be great to get their input on the current events.
 
Israel assassinates another leading Hezbollah commander
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Israel is taking the opportunity to pursue targeted assassinations of Hezbollah's leading commanders, and in response Hezbollah targets empty radar stations with weak ATGMs ...

as I predicted yesterday, the assassinations will continue

Hezbollah launches drone strikes 13km into Israel

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We are heading towards major escalation on the northern front, while Israel moves to a "lower intensity" phase of the war with Gaza, already claiming victory in northern Gaza

I believe Hezbollah denied this later on.
 
In this case, the great citizens of Zionia will similarly be targeted. I don't believe the 'balance' will be the same as Gaza.
The balance certainly wont be the same, but I do have my concerns, it can certainly lead to Iran getting dragged in, because their will be no doubt we will be pouring men into Lebanon, along with material. And inevitably spread into Southern Syria.

Serious dangers can await, and if not defended resolutely, can risk losing alot that was built.
 
The balance certainly wont be the same, but I do have my concerns, it can certainly lead to Iran getting dragged in, because their will be no doubt we will be pouring men into Lebanon, along with material. And inevitably spread into Southern Syria.

Serious dangers can await, and if not defended resolutely, can risk losing alot that was built.
Yep. That’s the point. That’s playing chicken.
 

Iranian navy seizes oil tanker previously seized by the USA in Gulf of Oman​

The vessel has previously been seized in a dispute between Tehran and the US, with one million barrels of crude oil stolen by the USA.

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The state-run IRNA news agency ran a brief story acknowledging the seizure by Iran's navy. It did not identify the vessel, but said the seizure came as a result of a judicial order.

The private intelligence firm Ambrey said "four to five armed persons" boarded the ship. It said that the men had covered the surveillance cameras as they boarded.

The incident began early on Wednesday morning in waters between Oman and Iran, in an area where ships coming in and out of the Strait of Hormuz pass through.

The St Nikolas had earlier been named the Suez Rajan, associated with the the Greek shipping company Empire Navigation.

In a statement earlier, the Athens-based firm acknowledged losing contact with the vessel, which has a crew of 18 Filipinos and one Greek national. The company did not elaborate.

The ship came under the spotlight in February 2022 when the group United Against Nuclear Iran said it suspected the tanker carried oil from Iran's Khargh Island.

For months, the ship sat in the South China Sea off the northeast coast of Singapore before suddenly sailing for the Texas coast without explanation. The vessel discharged its cargo to another tanker in August, which released its oil in Houston as part of a Justice Department order.

In September, Empire Navigation pleaded guilty to smuggling sanctioned Iranian crude oil and agreed to pay a $2.4m (£1.9m) fine over a case involving the tanker.


So a Greek company was smuggling Iranian oil to Singapore, it then voluntarily travelled to USA where USA stole its 1 million barrels of crude oil and fined the Greek company $2.4 million. Now that same ship was seized by Iran in the Gulf of Oman based on a judicial order.

Iran should fine the Greek company the same amount as the lost 1 million barrels of crude oil, although I think the buyer of that oil would be the one who lost out, not Iran... Strange event overall
 
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USA launches second consecutive night of airstrikes against Yemen, targets Sana'a International Airport
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Hezbollah-Israel clashes continue but at lower intensity
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5-6 attacks per day instead of 15+ we saw in previous days

Interestingly, we are still due Hezbollah's response to the killing of Arouri in Beirut ... And of two of Hezbollah's senior commanders ... I guess there will be no serious response
 
Israel bombs international airports in Damascus and Aleppo while US bombs international airport in Sana'a
 

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