Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[SteppeWolff]

So Syria fell at a lightening pace. Hezbollah will surrounded on all sides and will get pummeled. Hamas already surrounded. 2 fronts gone. Seems like noose is tightening around Iran.

I could never have expected Syria to go like this. Damn.

Many people in those regions are going to feel abandoned and getting thrown to dogs. Irans reputation will be down the drain. Propaganda is already on full steam. Lets buckle up for a tough ride.

 

[Immortals]

We no longer need to talk about what disastrous consequences strategic patience has had.
The Iranian leadership may be in the middle of a complete mess, but if they want to at least save the lives of the Iranian mainland and its people, they must strike back at Israel now.
If Iran decides to be irresolute, forgetting that the shock of the fall of Syria led to the destruction of many important facilities by Israeli bombs and the killing of civilians who had nothing to do with the military, Iran will only end up like Lebanon and Syria.

Time to act was a year ago, even 6 months ago. When Israel was sending messages of peace to HZ and Iran while it cleverly destroyed Hamas first. Then moved on to HZ. Then Syria. And now Iran.

Iran attacking Israel at this point will only cause mayhem for Iranian homeland especially with Trump coming to power.

There are 3 paths:

1) Go nuclear and began the era of Iranian nuclear umbrella - this will force Saudi Arabia and Turkey to also go nuclear within a decade or so

2) Negotiate - scale back nuclear program - scale back “Axis of Resistance” in exchange for full lifting of sanctions, integration with SWIFT/International banking, removal of U.S. Trade Embargo and full normalization with Europe/US.

3) Maintaining status quo. Face Maximum Pressure 2.0 head on. Watch Iranian economy continue to erode and its geopolitical power wane. Wait for some miracle in international stage (China invading Taiwan, Russia and NaTo war) to bail you out of economic ruin from a U.S. led world order.

Really only #1 and #2 are viable options at this point.

I think Iran is going to go with #2 in 2025. They will seek a Grand Deal.

If IRAN wanted a bomb they would have done it in last 20 years. They just want to keep the option open if one day America falls and it’s every country for themselves as world order falls apart.

 

[vmro]

So Syria fell at a lightening pace. Hezbollah will surrounded on all sides and will get pummeled. Hamas already surrounded. 2 fronts gone. Seems like noose is tightening around Iran.

I could never have expected Syria to go like this. Damn.

Many people in those regions are going to feel abandoned and getting thrown to dogs. Irans reputation will be down the drain. Propaganda is already on full steam. Lets buckle up for a tough ride.

1. Hezbollah is created when Iran was surrounded by Sadam Hussein and Lebanon was mess...

2. Let’s be real, its miracle that Assad survived previous decade, Syria was always weakest secular part of the Axis...

3. Propaganda is on turbo mode for decades, msm is extremely anti-iranian and nothing new there...

4. If Iranian existence comes in difficult situations, is human nature to protect own lives, and the bomb is there before you know it...

 

[Immortals]

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Assad is finished. Iran sided with the Arab Monarchs and Turkey.

 

[tsunset]

And what will be sides in Iranian edition of Syrian/Lebanese civil war... Come back of MEK and pro-Pahvali's??? Eventual internal struggle could lead to some sort of reshaped Iranian political situation, but I can't see critical numbers of internal opposed groups ready to kill each other....

And for Israeli issue, the bomb is matter of political decision, not capacity....Like it or not, leadership will have to make it if lives are in danger. ..

Iran maybe not have same political influence over Iraq or Syria, but it is not that they are preparing to declare war on Iran....

Pahlavi and MEK are internet dreams, they do not exist in real life in Iran, a recent TRT video explained greatly Pahlavi and MEK fantasies, which only exist on internet and absent in real life

HTS terrorists are Uyghurs, chechens and Uzbeks/other foreigners, not Syrian, all known for their renowned savagery anchored in them

 

[vmro]

Once Assad falls, the Arabs and Turkey and West will pour money to reconstruct Syria and remove sanctions that was killing Assad ability to feed his people.

This isn’t like Taliban taking over Afghanistan where everyone but China turns their back on Afghanistan. Syria is much more important geopolitically where as Afghanistan is useless all around.

As for the network, it is severely damaged. Hezbollah has to rebuild which will take years and is no position to go to war not because it can’t but because the people won’t tolerate Lebanon being destroyed further. It has to walk a fine line since Lebanon has Christian’s and Sunnis. We also have to see if what happens in Syria “spills over” into Lebanon.



Iraq isn’t as pro-Iran as you think at the society level. There is many economic troubles there especially among the youth and people blame the government for being stuck between USA and Iran. The average Iraqi doesn’t love Iran because he views his government as stooges of America and Iran. Did you forget the Iraqi riots?

That’s the problem with human beings they are naturally self interest oriented and only care about themselves. They will support your “cause” until their home is blown up or they are starving or they unemployed then they start to break mentally. A government might have a 500 year life or eternal, but a human life is just 70-80 years. They have different timelines and different interests. If you cannot improve the lives of people they will turn on you plain and simple.

They turned on Assad because even after winning the war he couldn’t improve life and return Syria to pre-war times. Arabs wouldn’t give him the 250B+ needed for reconstruction without power sharing agreements. Russia couldn’t afford that. China wasn’t interested. Iran is broke itself. Only the West and rich Arab monarchs could afford that and they weren’t going to give it to Assad for free.

Look at Lebanon: terrible economy

Look at Syria: terrible economy

Look at Iraq: terrible economy

Look at Yemen: terrible economy

Look at Iran: terrible economy

How long you expect a population to support a cause under such conditions? 10 years? 20 years?

Only Yemen still has “revolutionary” zeal in its domestic population and Houthi’s have wide spread support despite the economic problems.

I agree the network will have to rebuild and change and work more in the shadows. But this era of Iranian military throughout Syria is like over or severely reduced.

I’m sure the liberals in Iran are screaming to pivot paths and return back to our borders and scale back support to all these groups in return for economic reintegration with the world.

What will Iran do in 2025? I think it will be a pivotal year for region and the world as well.

About Iraq is not about love, Iranian geo-position is determining factor for their special relations... Economy is not going to improve for sure, even security in Syria is not bright after this mercenaries go home in Central Asia...After Assad, there will be tens different fractions in political structure that will be bitter enemies...

2025 is crucial, for me first thing I want to know is curious case of KSA as state in panic...Once Iran saved Qatar from Saudis, now Saudis are in very difficult situation, Turkey-Qatar plan is nightmare for them and there is no other alternative than Iran...

And that could be new game-changer...

And for liberals, Iranian integration in "rest of the world" doesn't mean integrated into western structures anymore...Shia communities in the Middle East are doomed to look at Iran as their first destination for asking for support...

 

[vmro]

Pahlavi and MEK are internet dreams, they do not exist in real life in Iran, a recent TRT video explained greatly Pahlavi and MEK fantasies, which only exist on internet and absent in real life

HTS terrorists are Uyghurs, chechens and Uzbeks/other foreigners, not Syrian, all known for their renowned savagery anchored in them

I also have totally same opinions with you about all this, maybe I am bit too sarcastic and left you different impression...

 

[Xerxes22]

Who thanked us ? Who f*king cared for us. Our leaders died for their freedom not ours, we are too powerful to be enslaved. Our warriors sacrificed a normal life like other men enjoy, to defend their happiness and enjoyment.

Our martyrs sacrificed everything and now they turn to us and spit on us. There's nobody to save Palestine and there is no Palestine cuz it's been sold by the ppl that u claim are your overlords long before we stepped in to fight for you.

The men of Hezbollah stood and died for you and for Islam and you spat on us. I'm talking about the Ummah Chummah Nd the traitors in the so called "sunni resistance". We are the only resistance and you are already dead and lost.

Never count on us ever again . If we ever do step in and we will, it'll be only to protect the supporters of the prophet's family. That's when we will intervene Nd "slaughter you in a way unprecedented in history" as according to the words of the prophet (as) himself.

Untill then we are gunna go home and look after ourselves. Go and fight for yourselves. Long live Iran and the resistance. From now only to defend ourselves and our future children for we are not dead like you nd will never be.

 

[Immortals]

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Iran needs to go to the coast and build up a future Alwaite state and a Alwaite Hezbollah.

If Russia abandons Tartus naval base then Iran should take it over and provide security for the Alwaites to not be butchered by the terrorists.

We could even one day import our air defense systems and build a strong air defense network since the territory is small makes securing the airspace against future Israeli attacks much easier.

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[Persian Gulf]

it is insane that Syria has almost fallen with virtually no resistance or big battles

just endless withdrawals

and not one big statement from Assad either

what kind of leadership is that? he has given up too

if SAA doesn't want to fight, PMU and Iran alone can't fight for them

 

[vmro]

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Assad is finished. Iran sided with the Arab Monarchs and Turkey.

And with Russia, Saudis and all other possible countries...in this case...this is not dealing alliance between this states, just accepting the fact that Assad is simply finished....

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Iran needs to go to the coast and build up a future Alwaite state and a Alwaite Hezbollah.

If Russia abandons Tartus naval base then Iran should take it over and provide security for the Alwaites to not be butchered by the terrorists.

We could even one day import our air defense systems and build a strong air defense network since the territory is small makes securing the airspace against future Israeli attacks much easier.

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Of course...only if Iran is give up then it's finished...Alawi possession are most important part of Syria...

 

[Immortals]

The war in Gaza was the last chance for Iran to force Sunnis and Shiites to unite to defeat Israel or force a 2 state solution.

If Iran had entered the war when U.S. universities were protesting, the world was protesting, and momentum was against Israel. If Iran entered directly to stop genocide of Palestinians it would put Turkey, Egypt, and Arabs in a tough spot sitting and watching Iranian soldiers and troops dieing for Palestine while they did nothing.

Instead they saw Iran sitting and playing politics with empty threats and claiming they don’t want war either and they want peace with everyone. Nasrallah sat and played politics. So the Arabs and Turks they thought if Iran isn’t getting directly involved why should I?

“We can’t go to war with America”

“We can’t go to war with Israel”

“That’s too dangerous, you are not seeing the master plan”

Yeah great master plan. You lost Syria, lost Hamas, lost the entire chain of command in Hezbollah - a 40 year organization.

Now Israel is going to annex South Syria. And so called Sunnis once again blame Shiites and say Iran and Hezbollah did nothing for Palestine.

So Let Sunnis and Druze live under head chopper rule. After all: Libya and Afghanistan are just prime examples of the amazing job Islamic Sunnis can do when they unite.

 

[925boy]

It's proven again , our old 70s , 80s , 90s decision makers can not make quick decision.

Quick decision doesn't equal quick action- sometimes it takes time for certain govt actions to take place or be easily visible to the public.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Instead they saw Iran sitting and playing politics with empty threats and claiming they don’t want war either and they want peace with everyone. Nasrallah sat and played politics. So the Arabs and Turks they thought if Iran isn’t getting directly involved why should I?

lets be honest, Arabs and turks were not going to fight Israel/USA no matter what Iran did

 

[vmro]

So Let Sunnis and Druze live under head chopper rule. After all: Libya and Afghanistan are just prime examples of the amazing job Islamic Sunnis can do when they unite.

This....